Posted on 11/01/2009 7:26:01 PM PST by Chet 99
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2009
Hoffman leads big
Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District.
In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.
Polling the race was a little haphazard in a weekend with many twists and turns but Hoffman showed a similar lead at all junctures. In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava. Poll respondents Saturday afternoon/evening and early Sunday afternoon were informed that Scozzafava had dropped out but that her name would still be on the ballot. During that period of time Hoffman led Owens 51-34 with Scozzafava's share going down to 12%. After Scozzafava announced she was endorsing Owens the remaining Sunday respondents were informed of that and the race showed a little tightening with Hoffman up 52-38 on Owens and Scozzafava's share dropping to 7%.
The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava's actions over the course of the weekend.
Hoffman is leading Scozzafava 71-15 among Republicans with 12% going to Owens. Among Democrats Owens gets 67% to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.
One key finding that may have ultimately scuttled Scozzafava's candidacy: 59% of Republicans considered her to be a liberal and only 7% thought she was a conservative. By comparison 80% of them consider Hoffman to be a conservative, and that's a good thing where nearly two thirds of GOP voters define themselves that way.
Republican voters also appear to be considerably more energized about the election than Democrats. While Barack Obama won a narrow victory in NY-23 last year, those planning to vote in this race supported John McCain by a 51-43 margin. Obama's approval rating with likely voters is just 39%.
We will have much more on NY-23 over the next 24 hours.
I want Hoffman to win big. I mean around 70% of the vote big. That would send the fear of God into the hearts of the rats, rinos and diablos.
I just hope that the election officials in NY-23 are extremely vigilant. There’s no telling what nefarious activities the ACORN vermin are planning.
That would be fantastic! Might just be the beginnings of a real conservative movement.
save
Hoffman primed for dominant victory
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NY23_1101424.pdf
If you’re in the district - get out Tuesday and vote!
Polls are great, but the buck stops on election day!
Just do it.
“PPP surveyed 1,747 likely NY-23 voters on October 31st and November 1st. The
survey’s margin of error is +/-2.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.”
Gosh, where are all those southerners and others who bash New Yorkers like me and threaten to run me off if I try to cross the Mason-Dixon line? You know, all the "yankee bashers".
The Conservative Movement gets started right here in NY State , courtesy of the Conservative Party. I bet most of you Freepers didn't think THAT would happen, did you?
Just a little congressional race a full three years before the next presidential election, but yet it provides the clearest indication of exactly who all the major candidates are: Here are my grades from a conservative perspective.
Sarah Palin
First on October 22, Sarah Palin came out on her Facebook page with a strong endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. A clear shot across the bow of the GOP establishment favoring principle over party. Palin cited Reagan’s ‘time for choosing’ and the principles of “smaller government, lower taxes, strong national defense, and a commitment to individual liberty “. Palin’s bold action against the party establishment further established her strong conservative credentials. GRADE: A
Tim Pawlenty
Three days after the Palin endorsement, Pawlenty followed suit and endorsed Hoffman. He gave a solid endorsement. But Pawlenty seems jealous of Palin’s popularity and appears just trying to keep up with Palin among the conservative wing. Pawlenty scored a few points with conservatives for doing the right thing, but would have come out a bigger winner if he endorsed sooner. GRADE: B -
Mike Huckabee
On October 15, Huckabee made it very clear he could never support a pro-abortion candidate, but yet did not endorse Hoffman despite saying he agrees with him on most issues. Huckabee had a chance to publicly be the first leading candidate to make the endorsement, but instead showed he feared going against the establishment. Huckabee has now finally endorsed Hoffman, but only after Scozzafava threw in the towel. GRADE: C -
Mitt Romney
“I have chosen not to endorse the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd District.” Basically identical to Huckabee, but Romney did not articulate why he could not endorse Scozzafava and gave no praise to Hoffman. The thought of going against the GOP and supporting a conservative did not even appear to cross Romney’s mind. GRADE D
Newt Gingrich
Not only did Newt endorsed Scozzafava, but he attacked those who dared support Hoffman. Gingrich completely mischaracterized this election, insisting it was anti 10th Amendment to go against the party operatives to endorse the conservative. Newt’s star has fallen far since leading the 1994 revolution, and instead of being a visionary is now a simple establishment guy. Now, hypocritically he has finally endorsed Hoffman. GRADE: ZERO
Ping. All’s well that ends well.
PPP has a whole slew of poll results coming out over the next several hours:
New Jersey around 11
Maine around midnight
Virginia around 1 AM
Chapel Hill around 2 AM
Charlotte around 3 AM
You got that right!!!
You got that right!!!
Agreed. DIABLOS - I just love that one. Dede is a DIABLO.
I’m not sure even the ACORN fraud machine can erase this lead...
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