I have already stated that FDR’s role in Pearl Harbor is not proven. However, my father was an intelligent, contemporary observer of the people and events of that conflict, and his sense of the direct culpability of FDR in deliberately starting the war with Japan is completely consistent with other behaviors of FDR during the period. See http://hnn.us/articles/89.html
Therefore, there is plausibility, and that should at least have the effect of entering the debate with caution rather than bravado.
Everyone expected the attack on the Phillipines as part of the advance to South East Asia. No one seems to have expected the raid on Pearl, or for it to have had the success it did. If we had had our planes in the air, it would not been as destructive.