Posted on 04/19/2010 4:38:05 AM PDT by bsaunders
There has been a plethora of articles, papers, discussions, and every conceivable act about the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons with one glaring omission, effective actions. The world seems content to dither away precious time while solely and simply lamenting the progress Iran is making while President Obama has gone one step further, cheerleading the ditherers on. Anyone expecting, or even worse, relying on American leadership in what has been called the Iran crisis will be wholly left hanging and twisting in the winds of fate. The United States has already tipped their hand and are no longer even bluffing, they have folded and left the table. President Obama’s parting words were, “"Whether we like it or not, we remain a dominant military superpower, and when conflicts break out, we get pulled into it." This lamenting of the American role in the world may turn out to be their epitaph. Unfortunately, it may also prove to be a number of other nation’s epitaph that America walked away from responsibility.
With the United States in Iraq and thus controlling any and every route Israel has available to mount anything approaching a credible attack on Iranian nuclear sites, the world can forget relying on Israel as the world dithers to take care of this problem as was their tactic used against Saddam Hussein’s nuclear program. This leaves the world facing a future where the Iranian ruling Mullahs sitting atop the Middle East controlling all the oil with their nuclear threat. So, what will the world look like and who will suffer the most with a nuclear powered threat called Iran?
Popular opinions, a group-think that is often wrong, claims that the first move by a nuclear Iran will be to wipe Israel off the map. Understandable, as that is the threat often quoted being attributed to President Ahmadinejad. This will not be on the Iranian agenda, as Iran needs Israel as the ominous universal threat necessitating any action the Iranian leaders choose to take. Iran will first demand that all Western troops and influence be removed from the Middle East, especially the American influence. At the same time, an alliance of Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, and Afghanistan will be announced with Iran sitting in the lead position. Iran will probably then take steps to neutralize the United States through implied and real threats emanating from Venezuela and their other allies in the Americas. Iran will also, through their proxies Hamas and Hezballah, tie Israel down with threats and increased terror activity, taking great care to keep the level below any threshold that might trigger an Israeli war with Syria, Gaza, or Lebanon.
Once these goals have been allowed to settle in and become accepted, Iran will initiate the next stage. Now they will work to either force the leaders of Pakistan to join the Iranian power group’s influence or use the Taliban to bring Pakistan into their fold. Add to this Yemen, Somalia, and Eritrea, this will extend Iranian control over both the Straights of Hormuz and the exits from the Red Sea thus control over the Suez Canal. Iran will also be open to allow those Muslim countries that wish to join them to do so, this being the right of the “strong horse”. The final stage will be consolidating Iranian control over oil by calmly squeezing Kuwait and Saudi Arabia under their influence. Iran will leave many of the current rulers in place in these countries as long as they submit; something Islam has trained them well for doing, to Iranian control. Once they have the oil then they will soon take Europe and the end of all, as we know it, or World War III (or whatever number you wish to give it). Israel will be the last on their list of priorities as Israel and the Jews will be the scapegoat behind everything forcing the Iranian hand; or Israel is destroyed first and I’m all wet.
Good analysis. It assumes that Iran is an entirely rational actor, though, which is not necessarily the case.
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