Posted on 12/08/2010 3:06:19 PM PST by FTJM
The majority of “Republins” were with McCain, Dole and HW Bush too. How did that turn out?
National elections are decided by moderate swing voters. That’s why they’re described as “swing” voters - they swing elections. If you don’t win the moderate vote, you don’t win. This isn’t my opinion, it’s simple math. You seem like a simple guy, I’m sure you can understand that.
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You nailed it. Cons are 40% of the voters, libs are 20%, moderates are 40%. So clearly both parties need moderates to win.
The trick is to appeal to both cons and moderates.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/143909/palin-nod-plus-republicans-minus-independents.aspx
During the 2010 elections, 45% of Independents said that Palin's campaigning for local candidates made no difference in their vote and 35% said it would make them less likely to vote for her preferred candidate. Just 19% said that her involvement made them more likely to vote for the candidate she endorsed.
I'm not sure something as logical as "math" is going to make a big difference here. This isn't about logic or reason, it's about EMOTION. It reminds me of 2008, only this time the object of some people's affection is marginally less black.
"Moderates" does not equal "independents".
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17, 2010, with a random sample of 935 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling.
For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone-only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
And apples don't taste like oranges. So what? Where do I say that "moderates" and "independents" are an interchangeable terms? I don't. In fact, do I use the word "independent" in that post, at all?
PPP's latest poll in Missouri (a state that McCain carried in a year as bad as 2008) has Palin being viewed UNFAVORABLY by 71% of the moderates. For people in Rio Linda, that's damn-near 3/4 of all moderate voters that think unfavorably of Sarah Palin. That's bad, and that's not a path to victory.
Moderates don't vote for conservatives, in Missouri or anywhere else. "3/4 of all moderates" is the same as saying "3/4 of all liberals".
You provided no facts to support any of your claims/predictions and when faced with evidence that refutes your claims, you argue methodology of polling practices...Wow.
It really is amazing.
Not true. This 2010 midterm election, led by Sarah Palin and TEA Party conservatives, including Republicans, Independents, and some Democrats, brought conservative wins for more than 700 legislative, congressional, and governor seats across the nation. In a redistricting year, these election wins are most important, and constitute the greatest conservative gains in the history of the USA.
Senate seats are more difficult to win, and there are generally only a third of Senate seats in each election.
Seriously, is this your first election? Or, was math NOT your strong suit in school?
Conservatives only make up (per this PPP Poll) 44%. How oftent in a presidential election without a strong 3rd party candidate, does the winner only win with 44% of the vote? For Palin, or ANY conservative to win, they have to garner something north of 40% of the moderate vote, and sometimes much more than that. Don't take my word, look more closely at the poll.
From Question Q10
Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?Then in Q8...LIB = 17
MOD = 39
CON = 44
If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?Does anything jump out at you there? If given the choice, Palin can't even capture all of the conservative vote, to say nothing of the moderate vote. What is her path to victory when she can't get AT LEAST 44% of the moderate vote?Barack Obama = 46%
Sarah Palin = 43%
Undecided = 12%
Sarah Palin couldn't get her Tea Party candidate elected in her OWN HOME STATE. He was beaten by a WRITE IN, the first time a write-in candidate won election in over 50-years.
Yeah boy, Palin is a force of nature, that one.
That should have read 20%.
We shall see if the all perform as real patriots and Conservatives. If the past is any indications, I highly doubt it.
Usually when a Conservative acts and talks like a Conservative he/she is targeted and destroyed by the MSM...then their voters get spooked, say that they have too much baggage...and want a shiny new one.
Wash, rinse, repeat...over and over, for 30 years running.
Of course they left’s voters do not do this, they don't let anyone spook them. They vote as far left as possible, and do not care about criticism.
Which is why they have most of Washington DC, the entire MSM, the Judiciary, Hollywood, and Academia.
No, the Conservative/Republican voters are much too self-righteous, bigoted, and make ALL decisions on candidates on the MSM coverage (ie polling), and NEVER fight for a candidate as the left does.
As a result our Presidential candidates in particular tend to be DC establishment types, or robots who are programed to behave, say and do only what is acceptable to the MSM.
No bad press is the name of the game.
Therefore conservatism looses in the end.
“Does anything jump out at you there? If given the choice, Palin can’t even capture all of the conservative vote, to say nothing of the moderate vote.”
Something wrong with the arithmetic = 46 + 43 + 12 = 101
That did jump out at me ;-)
Wow, you'd stay home during a Obama vs. DeMint election?. You are a tool.
We don't need polls, dem, we just had a election, and the Ind voted GOP, Palin being the biggest voice!
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