Palin's Republican Problem (PPP Poll)

Public Policy Polling ^ | 12/8/10 | Tom Jensen

[FTJM]

It's well documented that Sarah Palin has problems with Democrats and independents, but the first seven states where we've looked at the 2012 Presidential election make it clear that she has a Republican problem as well.

It's not that Republicans don't like her- on our last national poll 68% rated her favorably, making her easily the most popular prospective 2012 candidate with Mike Huckabee at 63%, Newt Gingrich at 57%, and Mitt Romney at 56%. It's that a lot of the Republicans who don't like her- in contrast to the Republicans who don't like Huckabee, Gingrich, or Romney- aren't willing to hold their nose and vote for her in the general election.

Across the 7 individual states where we've done 2012 polls so far- Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Montana, and Virginia- Palin averages receiving 77% of the Republican vote against Barack Obama. That puts her slightly behind Gingrich at 80% and well behind Romney and Huckabee at 84%. Palin does the worst of the Republicans among Republicans in Montana, Missouri, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota. Only North Carolina where she does better than Romney and Virginia where she does better than Gingrich and Romney serve as exceptions to the rule.

Republicans may hate Barack Obama but there look to be a pretty meaningful percentage of them who don't hate him enough to vote to put Sarah Palin in the White House. When you combine that with her complete lack of appeal to Democrats and independents she looks virtually unelectable for 2012.

Here's the full data on how the Republicans do with Republicans...

[MeganC]

I’m voting for Sarah or not at all.

[Diogenesis]

This is a nonsense poll from a DNC- and Romney-operation.

Ignore it.

Here is the REAL DEAL from two independent polls:

Click here for HARRY info

[mad puppy]

“Gingrich at 57%, and Mitt Romney at 56%?”

Newt ahead of Mitt.

That is awesome.

[meadsjn]

Independent Voters Fed Up With Entire Political System

An estimated 37 percent of all American voters now call themselves independents or unaffiliated voters, according to a recent study by the Pew Research Center. This is a bigger group than those who say they are Democrats (34 percent) or those who identify themselves as Republicans (28 percent). The percentage of voters who say the are independent is the largest in 70 years.

Palin will get the overwhelming majority of those fed-up Independent voters. Losing that five percent of the snotty RINOs isn't going to be a problem.

[arthurus]

It's true. A lot of Republicans are conservative socially as well as economically and that means they won't vote for a new category of candidate. That means they won't vote for a woman, or they think they wouldn't vote for a woman. It has been hard enough getting black male candidates past this form of conservatism but it is happening, slowly, but it is happening. It doesn't mean racist or sexist, just unwilling to make what they think of as new relationships, unwillìng to break tradition.

[techno]

White conservative, free enterprise MODERATE Republicans en masse are going to vote for a Marxist, African-American has run up the debt into the stratosphere who has a socialist healthcare plan named after him, is an awful Commander-in-Chief and doesn’t believe in American exceptionalism over a white Republican Sarah Palin who believes in capitalism, freedom and liberty.

Yea sure!

[speciallybland]

A HotAir online poll is meaningful?

[ansel12]

What this means to me is that conservatives are in the rare position to take the primary, something the left of both parities do not want to happen.

[OldDeckHand]

"I’m voting for Sarah or not at all."

And Barack Obama couldn't be happier about it. You should just get it over with, and send him a contribution today.

[stratman1969]

Thirty years ago, they also said Reagan could never win against Jimmy Carter.

[stratman1969]

Thirty years ago, they also said Reagan could never win against Jimmy Carter.

[stratman1969]

Thirty years ago, they also said Reagan could never win against Jimmy Carter.

[Diogenesis]

pRes_ _ent Obama will cry from Gov. Palin’s win.

THIS time Mitt Romney will save Obama.

[Diogenesis]

pRes_ _ent Obama will cry from Gov. Palin’s win.

THIS time Mitt Romney will NOT save Obama.

[stratman1969]

I apologize, I triple posted. Could you remove possibly? Thanks!

[Diogenesis]

pRes_ _ent Obama will cry from Gov. Palin’s win.

THIS time Mitt Romney will NOT save Obama.

[EveningStar]

PPP is affiliated with the Democratic Party.

But FR has its own PPP. It’s the Palinista Paranoia Patrol.

Now, I can’t stand slick Mitt Romney either, but it’s delusional to think he’s behind all these different things.

[x]

Could be. I'd want to see a breakdown by sex. A lot of women don't trust women politicians.

I suspect some of it has to do with fear that Palin will put her foot in her mouth or disappoint voters in some major way.

People have gotten a lot more demanding of politicians lately: they don't want someone like Obama who doesn't have the experience or the temperament, or someone like Bush who makes them cringe or wince too often.

Palin has yet to prove that she's up to the job, so voters who aren't already committed to her will go with someone who looks less risky, at least superficially.

[balch3]

they’re called RINOs.