South Korea has "Had Enough", Currently Planning Military Attack on the North

Reaganite Republican ^ | December 13, 2010 | Reaganite Republican

[dfwgator]

Get some!

[therightliveswithus]

Interesting to say the least

[ScottinVA]

If at all possible, they’d be well advised to wait until we have different leadership here in the U.S.

[Reaganite Republican]

IMO credible due to the moderate scale of the plan, just tactical to take out artillery sights and make a statement

The Norks won’t go all out... they’re not as crazy as a lot of people think, that’s all bluster

[Free Vulcan]

Thoughts?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

The first thing to be done is to wipe out the missile and howitzer brigades just north of the DMZ.

[Oberon]

You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.

[paladin1_dcs]

I hope you’re right, but I’m not so sure.

[N3WBI3]

“You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.”

I disagree right now North Korea is nearing a fork in the road. Those people are bat $#it crazy from cradle to grave and that has served the NK despots rather well to date but keeping a group of fanatics in line will not be easy if they start to lose an all out war.

If however you martyr Crazy Uncle Kim (or his successor) without walking over the whole country all you do is extend the situation another 100 years no matter how bad things get.

Either roll over NK (it would make the Pacific Campaign of WW2 seem tame) or retaliate to NK aggression with a 1.5* sever strike to the site of the aggression.

Which ever it is we need to follow SK’s lead as it’s their nation on the line and they are a decent group to have on your side...

[Reaganite Republican]

Correct imho, the artillery within range of Seoul -much of which is on rails that rapidly run the gun back into a cave immediately after firing- is THE primary threat of the North Korean Army

The AF and Navy are nothing compared to our side, they’re all a land army. They have a lot of AA and set artillery pieces... like 40-50K I believe. The plan would be to level Seoul the first day and try and force a negotiation

[Reaganite Republican]

It sounds like that’s what we are doing, Lee Myung-bak decided to go with a more offensive strategy and offer an more effective deterrent, and the US promised him F-22s already

[Domalais]

Implausible bordering on ridiculous. North Korean military power is based on two things: 1) special forces, and 2) massive concentrations of long range artillery.

NK's special forces, the largest such force in the world, are designed for fighting in the rear areas of the Republic of Korea (ROK) disrupting services, resupply, reinforcement, etc. They are a purely offensive force.

That leaves artillery as NK's hub of power and only defense/deterrent against a ROK first strike. Which is why it is prepositioned to cause maximum economic and civilian target damage against the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area (GSMA). That's also why their ammo stockpiles are not large enough to fight a war; they only want/need enough to annihilate Seoul. I forget the exact numbers but projections are that hundreds of thousands of rounds would land in the GSMA every hour for the first 48 hours of any conflict.

Any kind of attack against NK's artillery assets would be a direct attack on the country's defense and regime's power. There's no way that KJI or his military would allow such an attack. The ROKs would be insane to retaliate unless they were committed to sacrificing their economy and fighting a full scale war.

[Pan_Yan]

While WikiLeaks-exposed cables last month indicated Beijing was also frustrated with the Kim regime's unpredictable brinkmanship -

Wikileaks didn't tell us anything about China, because only a moron (read State Department) would believe anything China tells them either publically or 'privately'.

[Reaganite Republican]

The cable said a Chinese envoy to let the South know they might make a deal...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

[Oberon]

Either roll over NK (it would make the Pacific Campaign of WW2 seem tame) or retaliate to NK aggression with a 1.5* sever strike to the site of the aggression.

You are familiar with the Tomahawk cruise missile, right?

A "handful" of these... say, six... would provide your 1.5x retaliation quite nicely I think.

[Reaganite Republican]

I agree with everything you post here, imho you definitely are very, very well informed on this issue

But the thinking in the South is that the North is not suicidal, and knows it cannot “win” a full scale war.

When they fired at the island last month, the south fired on their positions... it’s not like the South has never hit back.

I don’t know if such an attack is prudent, but the the North is in a weak position politically, the Army doens’t dig this son of his AT all. And I would do everything in my power to at least make the North think Seoul would launch airstrikes... they surely need to establish some deterrent against firing on civilian areas, there’s next to none now

[Reaganite Republican]

BTW, the piece referred to them hitting the artillery that is firing on them... last time it was some coastal position obviously, nothing to do with the vital assets surrounding Seoul

[Cheburashka]

You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.

---

Cruise missiles are incredibly vulnerable to antiaircraft defenses. You must suppress the antiaircraft defenses before you send in the Tomahawks.

[Domalais]

I have some experience in the region.

NK cannot win a war, we know that and they know that. But the harsh reality is that the North has virtually nothing to lose, and the South has everything to lose. It's like playing chicken when you're driving a new BMW and your opponent is driving an LTD. The economic damage that would be inflicted on Seoul and the ROK would take a generation to repair. The ROKs are too proud of their economy to even think about risking it... just look at how thrilled they were to become a member of the G20. There were ads on the radio and TV for almost a year leading up to the event.

NK’s goal #1 is survival of the regime. Not the country; KJI and the elites. If that's threatened in any way, I really think that all options are on the table for them.

It's all just political posturing from politicians that took some polls and are saying what the people want to hear. I don't believe for a minute that they'd actually pull the trigger.