South Korea has "Had Enough", Currently Planning Military Attack on the North

Reaganite Republican ^ | December 13, 2010 | Reaganite Republican

[Reaganite Republican]

"...a South Korean government who does not react 
would not be able to survive..."

The United States and South Korean militaries have long had a plan (with multiple revisions over the years) for fighting and winning an all-out war with the Norks: OPLAN 5027. Regrettably, a copy of this was snaked by North Korean hackers last year. Following that debacle, a new strategy is of course in the works.

But these days -despite never-ending belligerence emanating from the DPRK- fear of war on that scale has diminished on the SK/US side: the penniless Stalinist hell of North Korea is on the cusp of a possible leadership crisis, while also painfully aware that they simply cannot win a full-scale continuation of the Korean War. Any serious attack on the South would promptly lead to the demise of the so-called 'hermit kingdom', according to most observers... and the nefarious Kim regime knows it. 

So after taking some serious political heat in the wake of the first attack on a South Korean civilian area since 1953 -Yeonpyeong Island- the conservative administration of Lee Myung-bak in Seoul has lost interest in absorbing unprovoked aggression from Pyongyang... they're drawing a line in the sand as a new hawkish defense chief takes office.

CNS News:

President Lee Myung-bak's government is suffering intense criticism that its response to North Korea's Nov. 23 barrage on a South Korean island was weak, and over the stunning revelation that the South's spy chief dismissed information in August indicating the North might attack the front-line island of Yeonpyeong. 

Lee's nominee, Kim Kwan-jin, told a parliamentary confirmation hearing that further North Korean aggression will result in airstrikes. He said South Korea will use all its combat capabilities to retaliate. 

"In case the enemy attacks our territory and people again, we will thoroughly retaliate to ensure that the enemy cannot provoke again,"...

Yesterday former US Naval intelligence officer Dennis Blair confirmed that Seoul indeed sees no potential benefit in mantaining a failed strategy of appeasement with North Korea... and is preparing to deliver a long-overdue push-back.

Breitbart:

The former chief of US intelligence has warned that South Korea has lost its patience with provocations by North Korea and "will be taking military action." 

Retired admiral Dennis Blair, who was director of national intelligence until May, said he did not think that hostilities would escalate into a larger war with artillery attacks on Seoul because North Korea knows it would lose. 

"So I don't think a war is going to start but I think there is going to be a military confrontation at lower levels rather than simply accepting these, this North Korean aggression, and going and negotiating," he said on CNN's State of the Union. 

Blair said the North had gone beyond its usual pattern of brinkmanship with an artillery barrage on a South Korean island that killed four people November 23, and the sinking in May of a South Korean warship, which killed 46 sailors. 

"So South Korea is beginning to lose patience with the North, which there was a great deal of patience," said Blair, who just returned from South Korea. Asked what that meant, the retired admiral said, "It means they will be taking military action against North Korea." 

His comments came as South Korea was preparing to go ahead with live fire drills off its coasts, but not near the contested maritime border with the North in the Yellow Sea.

And where are Kim Jong-il's traditional supporters -the Chinese- on all this? Shooting themself in the foot, basically-

While WikiLeaks-exposed cables last month indicated Beijing was also frustrated with the Kim regime's unpredictable brinkmanship -and would possibly acquiesce to a Korean unification under SK control- all we've seen in public is a diplomatically-clumsy Chinese leadership acting like nothing has changed at all... an ill-advised and wholly-irresponsible approach that is starting to inflict some serious damage on China's aspirations as a world power...

Robert Haddick writing in Foreign Policy:

Beijing's ham-fisted approach to the North Korean issue is causing other countries in East Asia to rally around the United States in alarm over Chinese intentions, a result exactly contrary to China's long term policy goals in the region. 

With no change in its policy toward North Korea, China should prepare for more diplomatic isolation and a stepped-up security response by the United States and its neighbors. 

On Dec. 6, the Washington Post's John Pomfret described Beijing's clumsy approach to South Korea in the wake of the North's hour-long artillery bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island. Four days after the attack, China sent State Councilor Dai Bingguo to Seoul, without an invitation or advanced notice. Upon landing, Dai demanded that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak abandon his schedule for the rest of the day in order to meet with him, which Lee refused to do. 

When the two met the following day, Dai told Lee to "calm down" and then delivered a history lecture on China-South Korean relations. Dai's diplomatic bungling was startling. 

After his departure, Lee and his new defense minister adopted a policy of military retaliation against the North. Lee then sent his foreign minister to a policy coordination meeting with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts. The United States proceeded with large military training exercises with South Korea and Japan. Soon after that, the U.S. and South Korean governments unveiled a completed free-trade agreement. 

China's actions regarding North Korea have done wonders to bring together the United States and its Asian allies...

And although plenty predictable, the official North Korean news agency's somewhat less-than-nuanced take is always good for a few chuckles:

The war confab of the U.S. imperialists and the south Korean warmongers is, in fact, little short of a declaration of an all-out war aimed at the escalated skirmish, declared a spokesman for the National Peace Committee of Korea in a statement released on Saturday. 

He went on to say: The U.S. imperialists and the puppet warmongers held a meeting of the chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of south Korea and the U.S. in Seoul on December 8 at which they discussed a very dangerous war scenario calling on the puppet forces and the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces to mount a military attack on the DPRK under the pretext of "deterring provocation" of someone. 

The U.S. imperialists openly approved the puppet forces′ plan to attack the DPRK by mobilizing all fighters and warships, etc. not bound to the existing "rules and regulations for battles," touting "their right to self-defence." 

They, at the same time, declared they would consider the proposal for supporting the puppet forces with "information about north Korea" and with "F-22 Raptors" advertised by them as the "most sophisticated fighters in the world" in case of a war between the north and the south of Korea.

Looks like one pugnacious pygmy dictator with a funky-looking Elvis 'do may be soon be getting an abject lesson in just how sophisticated the F-22 Raptor actually is: they'll never see it coming until things just start blowing-up.

Chosunilbo   Breitbart   The Guardian  Hannity

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[dfwgator]

Get some!

[therightliveswithus]

Interesting to say the least

[ScottinVA]

If at all possible, they’d be well advised to wait until we have different leadership here in the U.S.

[Reaganite Republican]

IMO credible due to the moderate scale of the plan, just tactical to take out artillery sights and make a statement

The Norks won’t go all out... they’re not as crazy as a lot of people think, that’s all bluster

[Free Vulcan]

Thoughts?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

The first thing to be done is to wipe out the missile and howitzer brigades just north of the DMZ.

[Oberon]

You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.

[paladin1_dcs]

I hope you’re right, but I’m not so sure.

[N3WBI3]

“You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.”

I disagree right now North Korea is nearing a fork in the road. Those people are bat $#it crazy from cradle to grave and that has served the NK despots rather well to date but keeping a group of fanatics in line will not be easy if they start to lose an all out war.

If however you martyr Crazy Uncle Kim (or his successor) without walking over the whole country all you do is extend the situation another 100 years no matter how bad things get.

Either roll over NK (it would make the Pacific Campaign of WW2 seem tame) or retaliate to NK aggression with a 1.5* sever strike to the site of the aggression.

Which ever it is we need to follow SK’s lead as it’s their nation on the line and they are a decent group to have on your side...

[Reaganite Republican]

Correct imho, the artillery within range of Seoul -much of which is on rails that rapidly run the gun back into a cave immediately after firing- is THE primary threat of the North Korean Army

The AF and Navy are nothing compared to our side, they’re all a land army. They have a lot of AA and set artillery pieces... like 40-50K I believe. The plan would be to level Seoul the first day and try and force a negotiation

[Reaganite Republican]

It sounds like that’s what we are doing, Lee Myung-bak decided to go with a more offensive strategy and offer an more effective deterrent, and the US promised him F-22s already

[Domalais]

Implausible bordering on ridiculous. North Korean military power is based on two things: 1) special forces, and 2) massive concentrations of long range artillery.

NK's special forces, the largest such force in the world, are designed for fighting in the rear areas of the Republic of Korea (ROK) disrupting services, resupply, reinforcement, etc. They are a purely offensive force.

That leaves artillery as NK's hub of power and only defense/deterrent against a ROK first strike. Which is why it is prepositioned to cause maximum economic and civilian target damage against the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area (GSMA). That's also why their ammo stockpiles are not large enough to fight a war; they only want/need enough to annihilate Seoul. I forget the exact numbers but projections are that hundreds of thousands of rounds would land in the GSMA every hour for the first 48 hours of any conflict.

Any kind of attack against NK's artillery assets would be a direct attack on the country's defense and regime's power. There's no way that KJI or his military would allow such an attack. The ROKs would be insane to retaliate unless they were committed to sacrificing their economy and fighting a full scale war.

[Pan_Yan]

While WikiLeaks-exposed cables last month indicated Beijing was also frustrated with the Kim regime's unpredictable brinkmanship -

Wikileaks didn't tell us anything about China, because only a moron (read State Department) would believe anything China tells them either publically or 'privately'.

[Reaganite Republican]

The cable said a Chinese envoy to let the South know they might make a deal...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

[Oberon]

Either roll over NK (it would make the Pacific Campaign of WW2 seem tame) or retaliate to NK aggression with a 1.5* sever strike to the site of the aggression.

You are familiar with the Tomahawk cruise missile, right?

A "handful" of these... say, six... would provide your 1.5x retaliation quite nicely I think.

[Reaganite Republican]

I agree with everything you post here, imho you definitely are very, very well informed on this issue

But the thinking in the South is that the North is not suicidal, and knows it cannot “win” a full scale war.

When they fired at the island last month, the south fired on their positions... it’s not like the South has never hit back.

I don’t know if such an attack is prudent, but the the North is in a weak position politically, the Army doens’t dig this son of his AT all. And I would do everything in my power to at least make the North think Seoul would launch airstrikes... they surely need to establish some deterrent against firing on civilian areas, there’s next to none now

[Reaganite Republican]

BTW, the piece referred to them hitting the artillery that is firing on them... last time it was some coastal position obviously, nothing to do with the vital assets surrounding Seoul

[Cheburashka]

You know, it seems to me that a handful of Tomahawks could sort this right out.

---

Cruise missiles are incredibly vulnerable to antiaircraft defenses. You must suppress the antiaircraft defenses before you send in the Tomahawks.

[Domalais]

I have some experience in the region.

NK cannot win a war, we know that and they know that. But the harsh reality is that the North has virtually nothing to lose, and the South has everything to lose. It's like playing chicken when you're driving a new BMW and your opponent is driving an LTD. The economic damage that would be inflicted on Seoul and the ROK would take a generation to repair. The ROKs are too proud of their economy to even think about risking it... just look at how thrilled they were to become a member of the G20. There were ads on the radio and TV for almost a year leading up to the event.

NK’s goal #1 is survival of the regime. Not the country; KJI and the elites. If that's threatened in any way, I really think that all options are on the table for them.

It's all just political posturing from politicians that took some polls and are saying what the people want to hear. I don't believe for a minute that they'd actually pull the trigger.