Posted on 06/14/2011 5:57:49 PM PDT by techno
As many of you know Mike Huckabee,on May 14,announced on his Fox weekend TV show he would NOT be running for President in 2012.
That set off a chain of events in the past month culminating today with Chris Matthews, previously a foe of Michele Bachmann, who had previously ridiculed her personally and politically and dumped all over her, to now sing Bachmann's praises for her debate performance last night.
A key revelation over the course of the last month is that both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin have surged ahead in 5-7 national polls of GOP contenders due primarily to Huckabee bowing out (previous polls pre-Huckabee asking for second choices if Huckabee did not run verify this)and also Donald Trump and Mitch Daniels deciding not to run and thereby producing now a clear separation of 7-10 points between Romney and Palin vs. the rest of the field.
Here are 5 events that have been brought about as a result of this information imho:
1)Mitt Romney has decided to lay low until Labor Day (Piers Morgan interview on CNN). This is called resting on your laurels or in football going into a defensive shell.
2)Mitt Romney has decided to skip the Ames Straw poll and not invest a lot of resources to win Iowa. At the same time recent polls have shown Sarah Palin surging in Iowa as well as the rest of the country. Iowa is a state where 45% of the caucus goers are projected to be VERY CONSERVATIVE and based on the 2008 exit polls of the caucuses 60% self-identified as evangelical Christians. These are the two groups that Romney had the least success with in 2008.
3)Via Rush Limbaugh last Friday: "The media now loves Romney; he's now their guy." Translation: The MSM will no longer be promoting the idea of someone coming out of the GOP establishment bullpen to replace Romney.
4)Sarah Palin has gone dark since her interview with Chris Wallace 9 days ago. Her surge in the polls does give her more latitude and flexibility to adjust her schedule without having to look over her shoulder and to plan the launch of her presidential campaign.
5)The MSM has not only embraced Mitt Romney but as of last night and today gone absolutely "nuts" in their praise of Michele Bachmann, including her arch-nemesis Chris Matthews. In addition Joan Walsh of Salon is now calling on Herman Cain to withdraw from the race. Recent polls show Cain ahead of Bachmann.
Now when you take these 5 events as a whole as a political observer you are left with one conclusion: People are beginning to choose sides. In other words the 2012 GOP presidential nominee will be either Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin with no one else having any chance whatsoever of claiming the brass ring; and thus the next President of the USA will either be the current one, President Obama, Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin. It is what it is.
Now you skeptics and doubting Thomases are sure to ask, "What if Sarah Palin does not run?" Answer: Get ready for the coronation of Mitt Romney.
Without Sarah Palin in the mix, the polls show Romney even creating further separation between himself and the field sometimes as much as 20 points.
Now what does this mean going forward?
If you are Mitt Romney only one person stands in your way to winning the GOP nomination.
If you are Sarah Palin, when you get in all you need to do is to focus on narrowing the gap with Romney in the polls and not have to worry about the rest of the field passing you, at least for the time being.
If you are the mainstream media, you go "all in" with Mitt Romney, lock, stock and barrel because if you don't Sarah Palin may win the nomination.
If you are moderates or centrists who despise Sarah Palin you might decide you no longer have the luxury of supporting other moderate-centrist candidates (eg. Pawlenty, Gingrich, Huntsman) and must throw your support to Romney because the thought of Palin winning the nomination is an abomination to you. And that is despite Romneycare and Mitt's reputation as a flip-flopper.
And if you are Mitt Romney and you realize that for every liberal/moderate GOP primary voter there are approximately 2 conservative voters and that Palin dominates among folks who self-identify as VERY CONSERVATIVE or social conservative, you see the need to sponsor a stalking-horse to bleed away conservative votes from Palin so you can come up the middle in close contests. It also helps that other conservatives are also part of the mix to bleed votes away from Palin.
It just so happens that there is a rumor that Michele Bachmann is a stalking-horse for Mitt Romney and since yesterday the MSM has embraced her as warmly as they now embrace Romney.
So bottom line folks here is how this dynamic will in all likelihood play out over the next 7-9 months:
If you vote for door #1 (Romney) or door #2 (any other conservative but Sarah Palin) Romney will be the GOP nominee. If you are happy or comfortable with that thought, you know who to vote for, but if you have an antipathy to Romney getting the nomination as many freepers I suspect have, you must choose door #3 and vote for Sarah Palin next year. You have no other option
And as for the scenarios that have yet to play out there is one major one not yet decided.
Will conservatives, evangelicals and Tea Party supporters who are opposed to Romney being the GOP nominee coalesce en masse around Sarah Palin or will they decide to become PROXY VOTERS in the end?
That is the $64,000 looming question over the next several months. Will pro-Palin types vote their conservative values and principles and vote for Sarah Palin or will they vote as PROXY VOTERS who have been advised, counseled, or strongly influenced by the GOP establishment, the media, interest groups, prominent RINO's to consider other factors like electability (Palin is damaged goods), appealing to minorities, not being out of step of the new world order and the need to please the media when casting their vote?
The decision made by conservative, evangelicals and Tea Party supporters whether to support Palin en masse or to divvy up their support among other conservatives or Mitt Romney will determine who will win the nomination.
Vote your values-Palin is your nominee; become a PROXY VOTER and vote against your values or against Palin who you like the best and best represents your values and you will assuredly get Romney.
Any guess which direction the media wants to push you.
The #1 goal of the MSM: to create a massive number of PROXY VOTERS by duping unsuspecting GOP primary voters thereby handing the nomination to Romney.
Michelle Bachmann reflects my values. You are entitled to vote for whomever you believe reflects your own.
Michelle didn’t go after Mitt today. If any of them don’t tie Romneycare around his neck he waltz in.
Looks like many of the Palin fans have adopted some liberal tactics that will not be helpful to Palin. At least we know who they’re afraid of.
Step 3 - If Palin says she’s not running, where do all those voters go, not added to Romney so:
Bachman or Cain jump up big, add their 6% to palin and they jump ahead of Romney
Let me get this straight: Unless you vote for Sarah Palin, you are a proxy voter?
Michele Bachmann is a stalking horse?
The answer is no on both counts.
The militant, radical communists and their allies fear only one person. I’m talking about the tyrannical power brokers—the Putins and the Soroses of the world.
They’re not in the least bit afraid of Bachmann or Cain.
We all know who it is that gives them nightmares.
Matthews sudden change speaks volumes.
BWAHAHAHA!! YOU dont even believe that!! Palin overshadowed Bachman and she wasnt even there. Try ss you may, you cant ignore the grizzly in the room!
Sorry I was to post my post to the thread owner...
meh, the only reason they now hate Bachmann is because they aren’t big enough to trust their candidate can come out on top in a head to head battle.
Nothing but jealousy. This was supposed to be an uncontested coronation and all others are supposed to get out of the way.
Too bad, too sad. Thats life.
It would be easier to understand if Palin was actually a nominee. Otherwise it is ridiculous.
Thats okay. If that is the way you feel. That is your choice, well, if she runs that is.
This is what I wrote:
“vote against your values OR against Sarah Palin that you like”
In other words if you are a committed Cain, Bachmann or Santorum supporter and vote for Herman, Michele or Rick because you believe in them you are NOT a proxy voter.
But if you favor Palin but you vote for another conservative because you have been convinced to by outside forces or vote for moderate Mitt Romney who does not reflect your values, yes that makes you a PROXY VOTER.
Man it is going to be way more fun then the dems Presidential contest!!!!
I’m concerned Romney may be put over the top by Dems in open primary states.
A reverse “Operation Chaos” by the Dems, and after 2008 it’s hard to blame them.
I believe anybody can beat Baraq in a 2-way, but I’m also pretty sure a Romney candidacy will generate a 3rd party challenger.
Splitting the opposition vote may well allow Baraq to secure a Clintonian plurality win. I’m sure the Baraqqi Coalition can deliver 37% of the vote no matter what.
This would be problematic because gaining a 2/3rds veto overriding margin in the Senate is highly unlikely.
I agree with all you say.;^)
Question to any one on this site:
Do u have to be a “declared candidate” to get votes in the Ames Straw Poll?
If not, what happens if Palin, who is not a declared candidate, wins the Ames Straw Poll? What a wild ride that would be.
As a big Palin supporter I agree with you on this. I think Bachmann is fantastic even though Sarah is my first choice. It makes no sense to me to have anything against someone who last night stood up and convincingly said she would repeal Obamacare. I wish her the best, she seems like a good person. This is the same thing that PDS’ers do. Sarah excoriates Obama constanttly and I wonder what a conservative can have against her. I think we’ll see Palin embrace Bachmann as a candidate, just like many of us Palin supporters will.
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