Posted on 10/01/2011 6:22:36 AM PDT by Kaslin
His debate performances and new plan are making him seem viable.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign got off to a self-admittedly “bad start,” which is more than a bit of an understatement. His candidacy has been dismissed since then — but two recent polls show improvement. He now plans to make a splash with his “21st Century Contract with America.”
Gingrich has consistently gotten some of the biggest applause lines in the presidential debates, and wisely positioned himself to gain by staying out of the combat as the others attacked each other. A recent CNN poll, taken after the the last debate, shows Gingrich in a solid third place at 10 percent with Herman Cain, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul at 7 percent. (This was taken before Herman Cain’s rise in the polls following his straw poll win in Florida.) Michele Bachmann’s support collapsed to only 4 percent.
Former President Bill Clinton was asked by Newsmax to assess the field and if he thought it was down to a contest between Romney and Perry. The one candidate Clinton mentioned who could shake up the race was Gingrich. He also said: “Politics is not so static that it will be these two guys fighting it out all the way to the end, with nothing unpredictable happening.”
Gingrich’s new Contract, which he states is “10 times deeper and more comprehensive” than the 1994 proposal, may be what moves Gingrich to the top of the second-tier pack.
Gingrich’s website says that the Georgia primary is the “launch pad to victory,” his must-win state. He says he hopes to be in the top three in Iowa, will be in the top three in New Hampshire, and will win South Carolina and Florida. His website also says that “victory is vital” in South Carolina and Nevada, but that Georgia is his make-or-break state.
A recent poll out of Georgia shows Rick Perry in the lead at 24 percent, Herman Cain in second at 15 percent, Gingrich in third at 9 percent, and Bachmann with 8 percent. Cain won the state’s straw poll while Gingrich came in fourth, but 20 percent were undecided. Gingrich’s closest rivals are Bachmann and Cain, the former of which may be drop out if she loses Iowa.
Cain’s rise therefore comes at Gingrich’s expense. Cain is now seen as viable, giving him an edge over Gingrich and the other second- and third-tier candidates. Expect a big jump in the polls — but this jump can quickly disappear as he comes under the spotlight. Cain is extremely well-liked, but voters will now start asking themselves if he has the experience and substance to be president.
Standing next to Gingrich and other candidates, he could very well start looking more like an excellent vice presidential nominee instead of a commander in chief. The founder of Tea Party Nation endorsed Gingrich this month, making this very point: “Newt is electable. If you have seen the GOP debates, Gingrich has been the best debater … he looks presidential.” He also called him a “big idea man” with “the vision to fundamentally change the federal government.”
Gingrich may also gain ground because of his unplanned statement to the The United West, which asked him if he’d investigate Muslim Brotherhood fronts in the U.S. like the Council on American-Islamic Relations, the Islamic Society of North America, and the North American Islamic Trust. Gingrich answered: “Yes, absolutely!” Herman Cain, on the other hand, went to a top Muslim Brotherhood mosque when he sought to make up for his comments about communities banning mosques. Since then, Cain has told The United West that he’d prosecute the Brotherhood fronts and designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. National security is not a major issue this campaign, but winning the anti-Islamist vote may still result in a noticeable uptick in support.
Gingrich’s climb to third place in the polls and strong debate performances don’t make him a first-tier candidate, but for the first time, victory at least seems possible. He could linger in the second tier and prosper as others drop out. Perry’s support will fall as he’s attacked on all sides, and if it drops far enough, attention will turn back to Romney. Bachmann will probably drop out after Iowa if she loses, as will Rick Santorum. After the New Hampshire primary, Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson will probably exit. These last three candidates have very little support, but they still take up time on stage at the debates, and that is where Gingrich shines and has an opportunity to make his case without buying expensive advertising.
This doesn’t mean that it is likely Gingrich will win, or that there aren’t serious obstacles. Romney or Perry could have unstoppable momentum because of victories in the pre-Georgia contests. Gingrich also has to convince the media and Republicans, including less attentive voters that are unaware of his strengthening position in the polls, that his candidacy is viable. People simply don’t want to volunteer for or donate to a campaign that has little hope of succeeding. And then there are the questions about his electability. Debate performances can stir confidence that he can take on Obama, but it will be hard for voters to get past the earlier implosion of his campaign. Republicans can’t afford to have that happen with their nominee.
As those competing for the right-of-Romney vote make bringing Perry down their first order of business, one of the second-tier candidates could break through. And of those candidates, Gingrich is the one on a positive trajectory. Don’t count him out.
"...sit down and you me and Nan can sign the contract....pay no attention to that little cap and trade clause..."
Smart guy, that Newt. Somehow, I can’t seem to get the bad taste out of my mouth from his outreach to Rev’ren’ Al and Nancy Pelosi and who knows how many others on the other, darker side of American politics.
Still, to be able to manage with that high maintenance wife of his and without the support of his long-departed staff and not much in the way of campaign funds .....
Maybe he’s angling for Charles Krauthammer’s slot on the FoxNews panel.
Newt, you did so well in passing the last one. /sarcasm
Please.
He is very smart
We already have a contract. Its called the US Constitution and Bill of Rights.
The RinoCracy will do almost ANYTHING...including trying to put up a worn out old war horse, to make We the People forget that thing...
Conservatives spent the entire Clinton administration saying (via Limbaugh) “Character does matter”.
Do we still believe this?
As far as I’m concerned that picture proves he is not a conservative.
didnt he break the last Contract with America? no thanks
As far as I’m concerned that picture proves he is not a conservative.
Not a big Newt fan personal life, however, what is not conservative about what he wants to do?
PART 1: LEGISLATIVE PROPOSALS
Executive Summary
Repeal Obamacare and pass a replacement that saves lives and money by empowering patients and doctors, not bureaucrats and politicians.
Return to robust job creation with a bold set of tax cuts and regulatory reforms that will free American entrepreneurs to invest and hire, as well as by reforming the Federal Reserve and creating a training requirement for extended federal unemployment benefits to encourage work and improve the quality of our workforce.
Unleash America’s full energy production potential in oil, natural gas, coal, biofuels, wind, nuclear oil shale and more, creating jobs, stimulating a sustainable manufacturing boom, lowering gasoline and other energy prices, increasing government revenues, and bolstering national security.
Save Medicare and Social Security by giving Americans more choices and tools to live longer, healthier lives with greater financial independence.
Balance the federal budget by freeing job-creators to grow the economy, reforming entitlements, and implementing waste cutting and productivity improvement systems such as Lean Six Sigma to eliminate waste and fraud. Pass a balanced budget amendment to keep it balanced.
Control the border by January 1, 2014 and establish English as the official language of government; reform the legal visa system, and make it much easier to deport criminals and gang members while making it easier for law abiding visitors to come to the US.
Revitalize our national security system to meet 21st century threats by restructuring and adequately funding our security agencies to function within a grand strategy for victory over those who seek to kill us or limit American power.
Maximize the speed and impact of medical breakthroughs by removing unnecessary obstacles that block new treatments from reaching patients and emphasizing research spending towards urgent national priorities, like brain science with its impact on Alzheimer’s, autism, Parkinson’s, mental health and other conditions knowledge of the brain will help solve.
Restore the proper role of the judicial branch by using the clearly delineated powers available to the president and Congress to correct, limit, or replace judges who violate the Constitution.
Enforce the Tenth Amendment by starting an orderly transfer of power and responsibility from the federal government back “to the states, respectively, or to the people,” as the Constitution requires. Over the next year, state and local officials and citizens will be asked to identify the areas which can be transferred back home.
He would destroy Zero in a debate!!
And that Repub majority we empowered last November have TOTALLY DROPPED THE RIGHT TO LIFE in all their activity. And the daily, massive slaughter of 3,300 unborn Americans goes on EVERY DAY.
A simple platform plank like, "If elected, I will put a Pro-Life Supreme Court Jurist in place as soon as possible," would be too much, I guess for the willing participants of this massive slaughter.
Never. He is a member of the political ruling class, seeking to extend the rule of the political ruling class.
I’m with you - there’s only a couple I would prefer to Newt at this time, but they aren’t at the top of the heap yet. He is a brilliant man and we could do a LOT worse. I’m more of a “anyome but Obama or Romney” person at this time.
I agree with all that but what bothers me is Newt’s flip flop ability. Don’t get me wrong I think NG is a very smart man he would probably make a good POTUS but once in he could just move to the other side of Pelosi on the couch.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.