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Britain's Foreign Office Prepares For Riots In Europe. Sees Euro Collapse "When, Not If"
Zero Hedge ^ | 11/26/2011 | Tyler Durden

Posted on 11/26/2011 1:40:29 PM PST by SeekAndFind

As every major developed economy hits Bass's Keynesian Endgame, the status quo is set to change dramatically. Nowhere is this climax playing out louder than in Europe and the implicit solution of Germany-uber-alles (while seemingly inevitable though nevertheless lengthy in execution) is likely to not sit well with many of the EMU nations.

To wit, The Telegraph today reports that Britain's Foreign Office is advising its overseas embassies to draw up plans to help expats should the collapse of the Euro turn explosive. Almost incredibly, a senior minister has revealed that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is matter of time.

The Telegraph: Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns:

____________________________________________

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.

Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.

Recent Foreign and Commonwealth Office instructions to embassies and consulates request contingency planning for extreme scenarios including rioting and social unrest.

Greece has seen several outbreaks of civil disorder as its government struggles with its huge debts. British officials think similar scenes cannot be ruled out in other nations if the euro collapses.

Diplomats have also been told to prepare to help tens of thousands of British citizens in eurozone countries with the consequences of a financial collapse that would leave them unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash.

Fuelling the fears of financial markets for the euro, reports in Madrid yesterday suggested that the new Popular Party government could seek a bail-out from either the European Union rescue fund or the International Monetary Fund.

There are also growing fears for Italy, whose new government was forced to pay record interest rates on new bonds issued yesterday.

The yield on new six-month loans was 6.5 per cent, nearly double last month’s rate. And the yield on outstanding two-year loans was 7.8 per cent, well above the level considered unsustainable.

Italy’s new government will have to sell more than EURO 30 billion of new bonds by the end of January to refinance its debts. Analysts say there is no guarantee that investors will buy all of those bonds, which could force Italy to default.

The Italian government yesterday said that in talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Prime Minister Mario Monti had agreed that an Italian collapse “would inevitably be the end of the euro.”

The EU treaties that created the euro and set its membership rules contain no provision for members to leave, meaning any break-up would be disorderly and potentially chaotic.

If eurozone governments defaulted on their debts, the European banks that hold many of their bonds would risk collapse.

Some analysts say the shock waves of such an event would risk the collapse of the entire financial system, leaving banks unable to return money to retail depositors and destroying companies dependent on bank credit.

The Financial Services Authority this week issued a public warning to British banks to bolster their contingency plans for the break-up of the single currency.

Some economists believe that at worst, the outright collapse of the euro could reduce GDP in its member-states by up to half and trigger mass unemployment.

Analysts at UBS, an investment bank earlier this year warned that the most extreme consequences of a break-up include risks to basic property rights and the threat of civil disorder.

“When the unemployment consequences are factored in, it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences,” UBS said.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: angelamerkel; antiamerican; britain; currencywar; eu; euro; europe; europeanunion; globalism; inflate; mariomonti; nicolassarkozy; prepare; preparedness; propaganda; qe; stimulus

1 posted on 11/26/2011 1:40:31 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
My gut says something is looming on the horizon but what would it actually mean for the Euro to "collapse?" Money would no longer buy anything? Prices would go astronomical?" Governments would no longer pay employees, pensions, etc?

I really don't know but wonder what the day to day effect on the average citizen would be, and most of all, why. Any insights anyone?

2 posted on 11/26/2011 1:49:25 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: hinckley buzzard

I can imagine Europe being pretty much doomed. But what does that mean for the United States? A collapse of a bunch of our banks?


3 posted on 11/26/2011 1:57:28 PM PST by Apollo5600 (Cain 2012)
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To: hinckley buzzard

Any bailout these countries will just go to financing the status quo—nothing will change. Which, in turn, means that they’ll fritter it away and be back for another one within the year.

Modern politicians seem incapable of solving problems because to REALLY solve these problems means that they’ll pi$$ people off and won’t get re-elected. Frankly, I expect the charade until the foolishness is wrung out of the electorte. Unfortunately, that won’t happen until the social order starts to break down.

And that especially goes for the US too.


4 posted on 11/26/2011 1:59:01 PM PST by rbg81
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To: SeekAndFind

I had a rabbi tell me not long after the intro of the Euro that it would not last. How he knew I don’t know but he must have seen some fundamentals that weren’t put into place before it was rolled out.


5 posted on 11/26/2011 2:00:55 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: SeekAndFind
"When, Not If"

This is always true of the inevitable collapse of socialism.

6 posted on 11/26/2011 2:02:57 PM PST by EternalVigilance (Newt Gingrich: The go to guy when you're down to the bottom of the bottom of the barrel...)
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To: EternalVigilance

All systems break down eventually.


7 posted on 11/26/2011 2:04:00 PM PST by DonaldC (A nation cannot stand in the absence of religious principle.)
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To: Apollo5600

>>I can imagine Europe being pretty much doomed.<<

.
If that also gets rid of the muzzies it will be a resurrection for Europe.


8 posted on 11/26/2011 2:04:27 PM PST by 353FMG
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To: hinckley buzzard

“My gut says something is looming on the horizon but what would it actually mean for the Euro to “collapse?” Money would no longer buy anything? Prices would go astronomical?” Governments would no longer pay employees, pensions, etc?

I really don’t know but wonder what the day to day effect on the average citizen would be, and most of all, why. Any insights anyone? “

I suspect that they will have to immediately devalue the currency by some ratio. So, in effect, prices for everything will go up by some factor, maybe double or triple...that’s what they’ll see. At the same time, their wages will not budge much, and their savings will not change at all - so they’ll have a good chunk of their wealth wiped out. That’s the end-result.

The part that Britain is worried about is the transition to that new-normal. If done in a collapse, there will be some period of time where the currency may be worthless and that people will have to barter, use dollars, or use gold. For people without resources, they will get desperate.

By the way, I expect the same here, given our debt level. In our case, the key is to be prepped up, to get through those very difficult transition weeks.


9 posted on 11/26/2011 2:06:51 PM PST by BobL (Send Rove a Message, VOTE CAIN, no matter what)
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To: SeekAndFind

Look where Europe is now. Yet we have a “president” advocating those same socialistic policies. What a moron.


10 posted on 11/26/2011 2:09:05 PM PST by jersey117
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To: rbg81
Unfortunately, that won’t happen until the social order starts to break down. And that especially goes for the US too.

The reaction to a breakdown of the USA should be different than other countries because the citizens here are armed. - Tom

11 posted on 11/26/2011 2:09:22 PM PST by Capt. Tom
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To: hinckley buzzard
Any insights anyone?

These are just guesses, but ...

Much of the welfare net would crumble (due to a rush out of the euro). While in some sense this is good, there is far too much dependency on that net for it to be peaceful. Banks will fail, and there will be some level of long-term credit crisis. The depth of that crisis will go a long way towards dictating how bad it actually gets there. If it turns into a credit collapse, where banks aren't lending to each other, and companies can't get short term credit, then look out. The economy will for the most part come to a complete stop.

The euro will collapse in value, making imports prohibitively expensive. But, at the same time, there will be a shortage of that same currency, due to the collapse in credit. This combination may very well mean that the Euro won't be widely accepted, even within Europe. Obviously, countries would have to issue new currencies, but given the widespread chaos, this will be a significant challenge.

To the average person this translates into: a loss of employment, a loss of savings (either through weakening of the Euro, or simply because the banks can't give them their money), a slashing of asset prices (probably with foreigners picking over the carcass), a lack of availability of non-essentials -- basically, real poverty (as opposed to the American style cell phone/cable/brand new vehicle, kind of poverty).

The only good news for them is that they will still be able to watch Japan crumble, and, because misery loves company, they won't feel all alone.
12 posted on 11/26/2011 2:09:25 PM PST by jjsheridan5
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To: jersey117

He is not a moron. This is all intentional.


13 posted on 11/26/2011 2:10:45 PM PST by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: SeekAndFind
The challenge this time isn't how to prevent the collapse, it's how best to address it so that as few people as possible get hurt. That was the choice facing Bush, and he sold a piece of whatever conservative soul he had left to pump $400 billion into a "soft landing" which, unfortunately, was soft enough to protect the principal offenders from having to change their behavior, and, worse, provided cover for his successor to quadruple the bet for his own purposes. But agree or not, that's why he did what he did.

Now Europe, and the stakes are far higher. Can economic cooperation, the "collectivizing" of risk, and the judicious printing of paper money ease the fall? We saw what happened when Bush tried it and the answer is that there probably isn't enough surplus left in the system to do that even as poorly as his administration did. We can, however, make things worse. Perhaps allowing a hard failure is worse, but whether it is or not, we're running out of options.

14 posted on 11/26/2011 2:11:20 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: hinckley buzzard
I really don't know but wonder what the day to day effect on the average citizen would be, and most of all, why. Any insights anyone?

Seriously, I think there will be a rush to the dollar that will ease things here. That being said, the derivatives thingy is a sword over the "too big to fail" banks - unless the Euros says the collapse is "voluntary" (cough), which would negate paying off the defaults, as they did with Greece.

15 posted on 11/26/2011 2:13:01 PM PST by Oatka (This is the USA, assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: hinckley buzzard

My gut says something is looming on the horizon but what would it actually mean for the Euro to “collapse?” Money would no longer buy anything? Prices would go astronomical?” Governments would no longer pay employees, pensions, etc?


My guess is to look at the most selfish thing a nation could do. ie. The Euro is dead! Long live the ‘Drachma, Deutschmark, Franc,’ etc.

Another way of looking at it is all debts made under the Euro are null and void. Only new debt will be acknowledged and as for you holders of Euro debt, So sorry but stuff happens. Just ask the Shareholders and Bond Holders of a Bankrupt company a la General Motors.


16 posted on 11/26/2011 2:13:20 PM PST by The Working Man (The mantra for BO's reign...."No Child Left a Dime")
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To: SeekAndFind

Has the Euro even fallen to the exchange rate at which it was introduced in 1999, which was par with the US dollar?

If not, this is hyperbole. If it has, take it seriously.

Too many blogsters need to generate hits and the surest way to do so is to hit the panic button, again and again and again. Is the situation bad? Yes it is. Is it as bad as this? Exchange rate with the dollar, please, then the picture will be a little clearer through all the fog of blog.


17 posted on 11/26/2011 2:13:49 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: DonaldC

Not this one:

Matthew 6

25 “Therefore I say to you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or what you will drink; nor about your body, what you will put on. Is not life more than food and the body more than clothing? 26 Look at the birds of the air, for they neither sow nor reap nor gather into barns; yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not of more value than they? 27 Which of you by worrying can add one cubit to his stature?
28 “So why do you worry about clothing? Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin; 29 and yet I say to you that even Solomon in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these. 30 Now if God so clothes the grass of the field, which today is, and tomorrow is thrown into the oven, will He not much more clothe you, O you of little faith?
31 “Therefore do not worry, saying, ‘What shall we eat?’ or ‘What shall we drink?’ or ‘What shall we wear?’ 32 For after all these things the Gentiles seek. For your heavenly Father knows that you need all these things. 33 But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness, and all these things shall be added to you. 34 Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble.


18 posted on 11/26/2011 2:15:34 PM PST by EternalVigilance (Newt Gingrich: The go to guy when you're down to the bottom of the bottom of the barrel...)
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To: SeekAndFind
Out of such chaos are popular dictators swept to power, and I don't see why this situation will prove any different.

Europe now faces twin perils: financial collapse in the short term and demographic collapse in the longer term. Once again Europe has become fertile ground for a tough-talking despot to restore immediate order and then begin the deportation and slaughter of a scapegoat population. In this case, Europe's new enemy truly is a threat -- its hostile, non-assimilated Muslim immigrants.

19 posted on 11/26/2011 2:18:10 PM PST by Always A Marine
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To: hinckley buzzard
"Some economists believe that at worst, the outright collapse of the euro could reduce GDP in its member-states by up to half and trigger mass unemployment."

A 50% Debt Deflation combined with Sovereign Default.

That makes for very, very hard times.

For currencies that survive, they will increase in "value" enormously.

Very hard times.

20 posted on 11/26/2011 2:22:26 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

The Euro and the EU project is another example of the elitists of this age slaming through their radical global agenda without a full and honest pulbic debate.

The media serves as their cheerleaders and they shout down anyone who disagrees with them as “extremist.” The modern European and American left are a curse on the whole planet. These technocrats don’t even have a clue as to how stupid and evil they are.

When everything is left in ruins, they will pick a scapegoat far away from themselves. I expect they will “progress” to pull a mass murdering campaign against a targeted enemy.


21 posted on 11/26/2011 2:24:43 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: The Working Man

Another way of looking at it is all debts made under the Euro are null and void.


I think this will happen, too. And when you think about it, the investors in the bloated debts of these nations should lose - including the banksters who have thrived on debt. No one should have put their money into this Euro global banking fraud.

What will happen to the dollar when the US follows suit?


22 posted on 11/26/2011 2:29:34 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: SeekAndFind

Good news for the dollar; time to be shorting the Euro and staying long in gold & silver.


23 posted on 11/26/2011 2:30:03 PM PST by O6ret (for)
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To: Capt. Tom

The reaction to a breakdown of the USA should be different than other countries because the citizens here are armed.


Really? Do you see our politicians trying to really fix our problems? I don’t—and don’t expect to until the whole mess blows up. More likely it will be hyperinflation rather than outright default.

They aren’t so much afraid of the law-abiding citizens with guns as they are of the welfare-clients rioting if their checks ever get cut off.


24 posted on 11/26/2011 2:36:06 PM PST by rbg81
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To: SaraJohnson

In Europe they could get away with mass murder again since most or all of the Euro-peons are disarmed. America is a different story. They can try but there are so many firearms here that it would be rather difficult to accomplish.


25 posted on 11/26/2011 2:36:46 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: hinckley buzzard

2012. One centralized bank. One world currency. I’ve seen predictions that the ‘banks’ are intentionally going to go bust to bring this about.


26 posted on 11/26/2011 2:43:52 PM PST by RushIsMyTeddyBear (A MUST WATCH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KeOLurcQaqI)
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To: SaraJohnson

What will happen to the dollar when the US follows suit?


I’m not really sure, my crystal ball is awfully cloudy lately. What I will say is that ‘social inertia’ is a real phenomena in that once a society embarks on a course it takes an equal or stronger force to stop it or shift its direction.

So with that out there, I believe that society world wide is dissatisfied in ways that as a society they don’t really comprehend but as individuals they feel either instinctively or rationally. And where that is leading us is to world wide societal disruption. That may be War between nations but far more likely it will be civil war.

I see this happening in the Mid-east currently. Some of it is fomented internally some is externally but once that ball gets rolling it won’t stop until the participant or the people as a whole say so. And that traditionally will not happen until the pain has become to much to bear.

The elements are there world wide though and I feel it will happen and soon. The interesting thing to me is that I felt these same tensions ramping up in the 1970’s. I think that Ronald Reagan’s presidency caused those tensions to be released. How, I’m not really sure but I did feel it.

Now we are on the Cusp of it occurring again and the Presidential election is still a year out. I feel that this time the tensions will not have a chance to release and the Euro collapsing or something else just as big like a full-blown Mid-east War will be the trigger that causes the whole world to collapse in violence.

Personally I want to be wrong about this, but my honest and ethical side forces me to point it out.


27 posted on 11/26/2011 3:01:07 PM PST by The Working Man (The mantra for BO's reign...."No Child Left a Dime")
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To: RegulatorCountry

To answer my own question, the Euro is at $1.3239 as of close on Friday, a seven week low. So, trending downward but nothing all that indicative of currency collapse thus far, as exchange rate.


28 posted on 11/26/2011 3:20:44 PM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: SeekAndFind

All countries using the Euro still maintain a valuation against their previous currency valuation, even though none of the money is in circulation. I beleive that EUropean countries can very easily switch to Francs, Gilders, Marks, Lira, etc., and that when doing this they already have a market value assigned on a daily basis at which point to make the conversion.


29 posted on 11/26/2011 3:23:07 PM PST by Jumper
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To: hinckley buzzard

comments on the article are a real eye opener. The storm is close.


30 posted on 11/26/2011 3:26:44 PM PST by jpsb
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To: jjsheridan5
There will be a loss of employment at the same time that government benefits get cut. This will create a desire in the native people to deport unproductive immigrants. A large percentage of the welfare-dependent immigrants are Muslims, and a mass deportation back to their countries of origin will be very destabilizing to those countries. Plus the will resist deportation.

I expect blood in the streets within a year.

31 posted on 11/26/2011 3:30:49 PM PST by PapaBear3625 (During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.)
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To: The Working Man

If our economy/dollar collapses, rather than civil war, we would be wise to split the nation in two: one free and independent and one global and socialist.

The tension in the US can not be reconciled because if we are socialist, freedom is dead and if we are free, socialism is dead. The mixture of the two has led to the collapse of the economy, society and the constitution. It has led our people into hate filled tribalism.

As I see, the Federal government has already named it’s enemy in the civil war by which citizens it classifies as “domestic terrorists.” That would be the American-Americans.


32 posted on 11/26/2011 3:52:34 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: GlockThe Vote
He is not a moron. This is all intentional.

Worth repeating.

33 posted on 11/26/2011 4:03:28 PM PST by antny3
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To: SeekAndFind

More propaganda from a suck-up for globalism. In the USA, we have plenty of natural resources for rising from the contemporary wrongness and idiocy, when we’re willing to do some real work (manufacturing). Ignore Europe. Starve the beast. Bring it on.


34 posted on 11/26/2011 4:52:03 PM PST by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the world.)
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To: SaraJohnson

If our economy/dollar collapses, rather than civil war, we would be wise to split the nation in two: one free and independent and one global and socialist.


As an idea it’s not a bad one. Implementation would be impossible. Both types of people are pretty much intermingled with a broad dividing line of Urban vs Suburban/rural.


35 posted on 11/26/2011 4:55:15 PM PST by The Working Man (The mantra for BO's reign...."No Child Left a Dime")
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To: rbg81
They aren’t so much afraid of the law-abiding citizens with guns as they are of the welfare-clients rioting if their checks ever get cut off.

Don't forget the welfare-clients are armed too. - tom

36 posted on 11/26/2011 5:06:37 PM PST by Capt. Tom
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To: The Working Man; SaraJohnson

“If our economy/dollar collapses, rather than civil war, we would be wise to split the nation in two: one free and independent and one global and socialist.”

The problem is this was the original idea. Federal govern with very specific powers and a charge to protect the nation, then the rest was 13 individual nations left to their own accord for the most part and we see how this turned out, Why not just return to the founding principles?


37 posted on 11/26/2011 5:21:58 PM PST by jafojeffsurf (Return to the Constitution)
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To: Jack Hydrazine
In Europe they could get away with mass murder again since most or all of the Euro-peons are disarmed. America is a different story. They can try but there are so many firearms here that it would be rather difficult to accomplish.

I would modify those last few words to this: "it would be impossible to accomplish." I say this because the American people are largely composed of patriots who would not surrender to a dictator, and they are--as you point out, armed--and there are many men who have military experience, unlike the Europeans. They would readily set up guerrila outfits and fight. And win.

38 posted on 11/26/2011 6:53:13 PM PST by OldPossum
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To: OldPossum
Oops, that would be "guerrilla outfits."
39 posted on 11/26/2011 6:55:59 PM PST by OldPossum
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To: jafojeffsurf

Why not just return to the founding principles?


Because we have half a nation of communists and socialists who want a strong, all powerful centralized government that redistributes wealth and centrally controls the economy. And we have half who want a sovereign nation that is for American freedom. There is nothing but the roadkill of a collapsed economy and tribalism in the middle.

There is no reconciling the two ideals - constitutional freedom and Marxism and we should stop pretending we can compromise in between. Marxists have “progressively” killed the constitution and the economy and the Marxists will continue wrecking the people and nation they despise until it totally collapses and they feed their blood lust in a purge.


40 posted on 11/26/2011 6:59:08 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: The Working Man
All the urbanites can pack their butts like sardines into a corner of their new nanny state! They will be happy as utopian larks. They won't permit anyone to live outside their cities so there won't be any country/city mouse divisions in paradise.
41 posted on 11/26/2011 7:06:28 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: OldPossum

I try not to use the word ‘impossible’ because situations can change in a hurry. How many law-abiding people voluntary gave up their firearms in NOLA after Katrina when the order for confiscation was given by the city government?

Quite a number did.

How did the police track them down? The paperwork that gun owners filled out when they purchased them.

An emergency in this country has to be precipitated in order for a government to justify full national gun confiscation. When, not if, the financial system of this country goes under you can bet that it will happen. A certain percentage of the population will voluntarily do that in order to have security.

What percentage is a good question.

I would not be surprised if Obama’s OWS gangs will be used in some capacity for that.


42 posted on 11/26/2011 8:24:40 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

I’m not sure that the residents of New Orleans are a good sample of the U.S. population, but your point is taken.

I’m just wondering: who among the U.S. law enforcement community would do the confiscation on a national scale? What a dangerous job that would be.

As for the OWS people doing this, well, that ought to be interesting.

Anyway, using the words of a former U.S. Department of Defense Secretary, both of us know that we don’t know what would happen.


43 posted on 11/27/2011 5:55:46 PM PST by OldPossum
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To: OldPossum

I don’t know what Obama’s purpose for his OWS gang is but they are there for a reason and that reason will become more clear in the months ahead.


44 posted on 11/27/2011 8:15:37 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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