Tebow's success due to production and protection, not magic

sports illustrated ^ | November 30, 2011 | techno

[techno]

The Cold Hard Football Facts are not just drinking the Tim Tebow Kool-Aid. We're mixing up big batches, grabbing innocent football fans off the street and pumping tubes of it down their throats--much like French farmers force-feed geese to fatten the bird's liver and make tasty foie gras.

OK, that's overstating the case a bit. Foie gras is not so tasty.

But the Cold, Hard Football Fact of the matter is that there is a fundamentally solid statistical foundation beneath the success of the Denver Broncos with Tebow at quarterback.

Put most simply, Tebow consistently outplays the other team's quarterback, often by wide margins. This superior play is the No. 1 reason for Denver's sudden success--now 5-1 with Tebow at QB this year after a dismal 1-4 start. But these superior performances seem lost on even the most knowledgeable football minds, like that of Broncos executive and Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway, for example.

[Caipirabob]

Maybe it’s just a God given miracle brought about by pure and devoted faith and the lefties can’t accept it.

[cuban leaf]

I’m not a sports fan, but I heard about this guy on NPR coming home from work a couple of days ago and their analysis fascinated me. They basically argued that the defense is so good that he doesn’t have to be. It caused me to raise my eyebrows because it implies the defense got a lot better at the same time he joined the team. IOW, it sounded bogus.

That makes this a sort of “political philosophy” issue. That makes me interested in it.

[skeeter]

The sports media is worried people might start actually listening to Tebow's testimony.

It could just be the kid simply has his head on straight not only about his theology but about his ability.

[steelyourfaith]

They basically argued that the defense is so good that he doesn’t have to be.

Did Denver totally change their defense after the 1-4 start, or did they change QB?
Seriously, NPR needs to be defunded ... and just go away.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Tebow doesn’t come from the right socio-economic background. Look how long the media took the exact opposite tack with Kordell Stewart.

[cuban leaf]

Now that I have a 55 minute commute, I’m listening to NPR, mainly because it is the clearest “non-music” signal. The amount of garbage on there is truly staggering. Sure helps when I argue with liberals though. :-)

[mnehring]

IE, Tebow has mad skills.

[techno]

As hardcore football fans know, the 4th quarter is most often where the greater majority of NFL games are won and lost and where quarterbacks “earn their money” or fail to rise to the occasion.

With that in mind here are the 4th quarter quarterback passer ratings as of week 12 in the NFL:

For those not familiar with passer ratings anything over 90 is good and anything over 100 is excellent.

Eli Manning——————123.7

Rodgers————————113.0

Brady—————————108.4

Tebow—————————107.8

Stafford————————98.6

Romo——————————96.9

Sanchez-————————93.8

Alex Smith———————91.6

Brees-—————————91.2

Flacco—————————87.3

Fitzpatrick-——————86.5

Freeman-————————84.3

McCoy-—————————84.0

Hasselbeck———————81.9

Ryan——————————79.1

Grossman————————78.4

Ponder—————————78.4

Tavares Jackson-————78.1

Newton—————————76.1

Vick——————————73.6

Rivers—————————73.5

Roethlisberger—————72.4

Kolb——————————72.0

Bradford————————71.8

Gabbert-————————70.1

Matt Moore———————60.3

Dalton—————————58.4

Painter-————————45.5

Carson Palmer-—————34.8

More evidence that Tim Tebow is not nearly as a bad a quarterback as his critics and the Tebow haters make him out to be.

[wideawake]

People like flashy passers and high-scoring games.

Quarterbacks who throw risky and exciting long bombs are beloved, even if they throw two interceptions for every three touchdown passes like Brett Favre.

Tebow's more humble style of play does not create as many tasty highlight film bites - but it produces fewer turnovers, and victories that are not dependent on one or two stars.

[Moonman62]

I’m going with he theory that the defense is playing better because Tebow protects the ball and is excellent at the fourth quarter comeback. The defense knows their effort won’t be wasted.

[Moonman62]

My favorite excerpts:

Wow. Tebow may not pass the ball effectively. But he's produced an incredible 22 touchdowns (13 passing, nine rushing) in just 368 touches (225 pass attempts, 121 rush attempts, 22 sacks). Nobody in football gets the ball in the end zone more often.

But for right here, and right now, Denver is winning because Tebow is consistently the best and most productive quarterback on the field.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/11/29/tim.tebow/index.html#ixzz1fCIvKUDX

[pgkdan]

IE, Tebow has mad skills.

True dat! I'd love to see him on my team next year!

[ThunderSleeps]

I’m going with he theory that the defense is playing better because Tebow protects the ball and is excellent at the fourth quarter comeback. The defense knows their effort won’t be wasted.

Also, when the offense is "working" the defense gets a rest - very significant, particularly at altitude. An offense that chews up the clock (ie. with runs, short passes vs long bombs) and gains ground, doesn't go "three and out"... Gives the D a rest. If/when they do have to punt, if they have moved the ball down field, then they can pin the opponent deep in their own end of the field - another advantage for the D...

Not a Broncos fan, but it looks like he's got some talent and the team is coming together. Good teams, well-coached teams, can still have problems. But then they make the necessary adjustments and have some success. Seems to be what's happening in Denver.

[Reeses]

Tebow has the God advantage. Whether you believe in God or not, the advantage is real and measurable. From an evolutionary perspective, the purpose of religion is it provides a competitive advantage during tribal warfare. Team sports like American football are practice tribal warfare. The God advantage works for both, and for life in general. Leftists hate the religious because they envy their God advantage. The nature of envy is not to acquire the object of their envy, but to destroy it.

[gusty]

Tebow, the moneyball quarterback. He does not turn over the ball, and he can score six from within the red zone. Thats all you need to know. The only stats that matter are Wins and Losses.

[Donald Rumsfeld Fan]

Career percentage of touches that result in a TD: Tim Tebow -- 6.0 percent Aaron Rodgers -- 5.7 percent Peyton Manning -- 5.5 percent Tom Brady -- 5.1 percent Drew Brees -- 4.7 percent John Elway -- 3.9 percent

Wow. Tebow may not pass the ball effectively. But he's produced an incredible 22 touchdowns (13 passing, nine rushing) in just 368 touches (225 pass attempts, 121 rush attempts, 22 sacks). Nobody in football gets the ball in the end zone more often.

[Donald Rumsfeld Fan]

That makes this a sort of “political philosophy” issue. That makes me interested in it.

I was once a huge NFL fan...until my team (LA Rams) left the state....I've returned ..and watch every Bronco game...because of Tebow ...

[cuban leaf]

The FIRST baseball strike ended professional sports for me, permanently. I got rid of TV in 1997. It would not have been possible if I were a sports fan. ;-)

[caveat emptor]

Interesting article. It’s about time for some hard facts like this about Tebow, other than the usual BS.