Posted on 12/23/2011 12:14:17 AM PST by parksstp
Ping to the Perry and Newt supporters on the Google Docs link in the thread containing the Iowa simulation.
You guys can argue over the county distribution on Newt and Perry votes. I think what I have is about as accurate as we’re going to get before the actual vote takes place Jan 3. The biggest factor I’m not sure about is Huntsman. He’ll probably get closer to 3,000 votes, most of which would come at the expense of Romney and leave some breathing room at the top.
Thank you for the ping. That was a LOT of effort. It will be interesting to see how you fair with your projections. A lot changes (as you noted) in the political landscape of Iowa and of course the field is different than in 2008 but it is good of you to put your numbers and formula out there for us political junkies to see.
One suggestion. The colors on your chart are so bold that it hurt my eyes. Probably just my old eyes and I don’t know if you can soften that effect.
Agreed that there was a huge effort put into this but when all is said and done it represents a very sophisticated way of allocating guesses. For me, the result does not pass the common sense test - which if I had done the analysis, would have sent me back to the computer.
I’ll say it right now: Newt Gingrich will NOT achieve anywhere near 40%; this estimate is wildly off. Similarly the analysis certainly underestimates Ron Paul, and probably Rick Perry as well.
So despite all the very obvious work, I’m not sure the result was worth it.
There are many, many variables and daily (hourly) events that alter the numbers, and computers and modeling can’t accurately forecast the final outcome.
But being human we try — for fun and persuasion.
I admire your work but it is very difficult to estimate these things. For instance, how can we even guess how many Dems will switch over to vote for Ron Paul?
Yes, the fall election may be difficult. Eastern Iowa has close ties to Chicago. We are going to have to talk issues over geographic loyalties.
I couldn't read your chart at all without my baby blues going ga-ga.
Leni
Gingrich may come back and be the upset winner in Iowa.
Perfect scenario for him.
It will be interesting to see how your projections match up. Hope you'll update us afterwards.
((((applause))))
Did you factor in any census data? i.e. deaths, exodus, relocation & retirement for seniors, relocation for students and job seekers?
Might not be a factor - since Caucus goers are probably Iowan in heart & soul.
thanks for sharing your results.
Thank you for the work you put into this post!
Freakin’ amazing!
Hey, this is good stuff. Seriously, a lot of effort was put into this, and who knows, it might end up being what happens. It’s all mostly guesswork at this stage anyway. I think 25% Gingrich, 24% Romney, 15% Paul is possible, but Paul will probably run better than that. He’s polling better than that, but we’ll see. I think a good number of 2008 ‘conservative’ voters will end up in the Paul column. For example, in 2008, I would have voted for Thompson. He had quit by the time my primary arrived. In 2012, I’m voting for Paul, with Gingrich as my 2nd choice.
If that’s the way the results finish, Paul will be done as a serious candidate. With all the time and effort he’s put into Iowa, he needs to be over 20%. Otherwise, people just aren’t responding to his message. Gingrich, Romney, and Perry will advance in your scenario.
Yes, a 40% estimate is SO wildly off it means just 25.40%!
I see my mistake. But in my own defense I have to say that the data was VERY poorly presented.
Two points:
1. How can you determine how the fact that the primary this year occurs just after the holidays, when many people may still be away, or travelling, and college students ( who can be wild cards in their voting) haven't yet returned to ccampuses? It's just so different from prior years.
2. I hope you'll do an analysis and critique AFTER the Iowa results are known....an "after-action report if you will (g)..to see how you did, and what went right..and/ort wrong?..and kindly ping me to it. Thanks.
Oh yeah..a very Merry Christmas to you and yours..
EXCELLENT JOB!!!!!!!!!! thank you for your hard work and time.
If you hit ctrl A it will soften the chart and highlight. Makes it easy to read
Hit ctrl A and it will highlight and soften the glare
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