Posted on 12/23/2011 12:14:17 AM PST by parksstp
Thanks all.
For the record, I believe the 2008 Caucus was held on Tuesday, January 4, just a day after what it is this time around.
Yes the college students throw a wrench into things, specifically Iowa City. My guess is that the 2008 General Election turnout won’t equal 2012, but its really difficult to tell.
As for the colors, sorry about that. I was trying to come up with a way to classify the conservative/swing/liberal counties that would be easily identifiable. Sounds like the colors are too bright. I can remove them if you think that would be better.
As for some here talking about underestimating Ron Paul, the only way he gets above 20% is for Democrats to heavily infiltrate the caucus. Under the available votes within each county, for Paul to acheive anything near 20%, total he would have to take many more votes from people who voted for Huckabee, Romney, Thompson, or McCain last time. The foreign policy ideologically is so different, I really doubt that scenario. I did build a sizeable percentage bounce into Paul’s numbers in many counties, especially the ones he did well in Eastern IA and places like Jefferson and Osceola counties.
And as for Rick Perry, he’s stuck at around 14-15% because of Bachmann and Santorum. The latter two have better ground games and organization in place, while Perry has the funding to close and cover the state in ads and a travel blitz campaign. Both sides have it’s advantage. For Perry to have a shot at getting anywhere near 20%, Santorum/Bachmann combined have to be limited to a total of 14%. The polls right now suggest Bachmann will get close to 10% support, while Santorum is surging, getting close to double digits. Their all fighting for the same constintuency.
From what I know about the Iowa Caucus, the GOP side is run much more like a poll (writing a name on paper and dropping in a hat), than what the Democrats do with their speeches and stuff. If the GOP organizers gave speeches before the voting took place at each precint, then I think the Perry folks might have a chance at convincing the Bachmann/Santorum people to join forces which could push Perry into the upper 20%’s. But this kind of caucusing before the vote doesn’t seem to happen on the GOP side.
Oh well, out of 99 counties, hopefully I’ll get at least one distribution right.
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