Shake out a few each month
to support Free Republic
Sponsors will contribute $10 for each new monthly sign-up
Posted on 01/10/2012 9:39:47 AM PST by parksstp
Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldEotZFZ5cG45UGNQVEY1d1NpdWI1aHc&hl=en_US#gid=0
Didn't have time to do all 10 counties because to get the real data, you have to go to the township level, whose totals are at the SoS website. If any Freepers want to push the simulation for the other 9 counties, go ahead.
Here were my assumptions: Romney maintains 2008 levels and gets 50% McCain vote Huntsman gets 33% of McCain vote + most/all of Rudy vote Santorum gets 80% of Huckabee total and what little Hunter vote Gingrich gets 20% Huckabee vote, 17% McCain vote, and what little of Thompson vote Perry gets 1% or less based on projected county turnouts Remaining amount of voters in precint, accounting for Newcomers, goes to Ron Paul.
The following results for Belknap County are Projected (see link for township totals and breakdown):
Romney: 6,536 45.20% Huntsman: 2,647 18.31% Paul: 2,605 18.02% Gingrich: 1,323 9.15% Santorum: 1,209 8.36% Perry: 139 0.96%
Santorum's Evangelical support slipped slightly in the last 48 hours. He and Gingrich are virtually locked in a tie in the less populated areas. However, Gingrich is projected to finish ahead of Santorum on the basis that there are more larger precints with 2008 McCain totals where the formula favors Gingrich since there are more of these voters than there are Evangelicals.
Huntsman had a slight surge i nthe last 48 hours and is locked in a close battle with Ron Paul for 2nd that could go down to the wire depending on how many new voters turn out.
One thing to notice here: If this formula does hold up and Huntsman is getting 1/3 of the McCain vote in NH, then it would be a good thing for Huntsman to continue to SC because he will be challenging Romney for the same voters on the coast and in the mid/low country area. In this situation, Romney would have an incredibly difficult time of finishing in SC, and in the most likely scenario: Santorum/Gingrich would finish ahead of Huntsman/Romney. So the best thing would be for Huntsman to continue and not pull out. The same hold true for FL.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhY4oeNgAv_ldEotZFZ5cG45UGNQVEY1d1NpdWI1aHc&hl=en_US#gid=0
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.