Posted on 06/12/2012 10:46:39 AM PDT by blam
The Economic Collapse Is Not A Single Event
Michael Snyder
June 12, 2012
Many people hype "the coming economic collapse" as if it is some kind of big summer Hollywood blockbuster. Many people out there write about it as if it is something that will happen in a single day or over a few weeks and that it will suddenly change how the entire world functions. But that is not how the financial world works. The financial world is like a game of chess - very slow and methodical. Yes, there are times when things happen very quickly (like back in 2008), but even that crisis played out over a number of months. Sadly, most Americans are not used to thinking in terms of months or years.
These days, most Americans have the attention span of a goldfish and most Americans have been trained to expect instant gratification. They are simply not accustomed to being patient and to wait for things. Well, despite what you may have read, the economic collapse is not going to be a single event. It is going to play out over quite a few years. In some ways we are experiencing an economic collapse right now. When the next major financial crisis occurs, many will be calling that "an economic collapse". But if you really want to grasp what is happening to us, you need to think long-term. We are heading for a complete and total nightmare, but it is going to take some time to get to the end of the story.
Yes, there will certainly be times of great chaos. The financial crisis of 2008 was one of those moments.
But the financial crisis of 2008 did not completely destroy us.
Neither will the next crisis.
I think it is helpful to think of what is happening to us as a series of waves.
When you build a beautiful sand castle on the beach, the first wave that comes in does not totally destroy it.
Rather, the first wave weakens the castle and it is destroyed by subsequent waves.
Well, that is what is happening to us.
The financial crisis of 2008 was a wave.
The epicenter of the next great financial crisis will be in Europe and that will be another wave.
For many, the next financial crisis will feel like "the end of the world" but it won't be.
There will be waves after that one that will be even worse.
Yes, the waves are going to start coming more rapidly and will start becoming more intense.
In that way, they will kind of be like birth pains.
But these problems did not build up overnight and they are not going to disappear overnight either.
A lot of people that write about the coming economic collapse seem to suggest that we should just let it happen so that the "recovery" can begin.
Unfortunately, it is not going to be so simple.
It took decades to build up a national debt of almost 16 trillion dollars.
It took decades for American consumers to build up the greatest consumer debt bubble in the history of the world.
It took decades to gut the economic infrastructure of the United States and ship millions of our jobs overseas.
These problems are going to plague us for a very long time.
Sadly, a lot of people out there seem to wish for an economic apocalypse. They seem to think that if the global financial system crashes that the government is going to disappear and we are going to start fighting with each other using sharp pointed sticks.
Well, it simply is not going to happen.
The U.S. government is not going to help you survive when things hit the fan, but it is not going to disappear either.
In fact, the federal government will probably try to grab more power than ever in an attempt to "restore order".
The governments of Europe are not going to disappear either. In fact, in the long run Europe is probably going to end up more "federalized" than ever even if the euro breaks up in the short run.
A lot of people out there seem to think that when the old system collapses that it will give them an opportunity to help put in a new system.
Sorry, but that is not going to happen either.
The powers that be are going to have their own ideas about what needs to happen.
They never like to let a good crisis go to waste, and they will certainly try to use every crisis to shape the world even more in their own image.
The coming economic collapse is going to play out over a number of years and it is going to be absolutely horrible.
Billions of people will deeply suffer because of it.
It will be unlike anything any of us have ever seen.
Personally, I believe that it will eventually be much worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The United States is going to get hit particularly hard. The United States is going to lose its position as the leading economic power on the globe and the U.S. dollar is going to lose its position as the default reserve currency of the world.
If you thought that the unemployment crisis during the last recession was bad, just wait until you see what is coming.
We are heading for a complete and total unemployment nightmare in the United States. Unemployment is eventually going to soar well up into the double digits.
The U.S. government will try a wide variety of measures to try to "fix" things, and some will likely have some limited success.
But the debt-fueled prosperity that we are all enjoying now is going to come to an end.
Many communities all over America will degenerate into rotting cesspools.
There are going to be riots in our major cities, crime and looting will be absolutely rampant and it will seem like society is coming apart at the seams.
The U.S. government will likely respond by becoming more authoritarian than ever, and that will truly be frightening.
But all of this is going to play out over time.
Right now, things are not as good as they were five years ago.
A couple of years from now, things will be even worse. Many of us will look back and wish that we could return to the "good old days" of 2011 and 2012.
We are on a decline that is not going to stop. There will be little false bubbles of hope like we are in now, but they won't last long.
But just because the economy is falling apart does not mean that your life is over. Many that are busy preparing right now will be greatly blessed even in the middle of all the chaos.
And it is when things are the darkest that the greatest lights are needed.
Make the decision right now to be a light during the times ahead.
You can choose to let the times that are coming destroy you, or you can choose to make them the greatest adventure of your life.
The choice is up to you.
Isn't it amazing how no one in a position of authority seems to have even a modicum of curiosity about the causes of an event that, supposedly, was going to bring the entire economic engine to its knees by the next morning, if not sooner?
Paulson and Bernanke both belong in prison.
“And we still don’t know who did it.”
George Soros, Michael Dell, and one other person who I cannot remember.
I think they are very aware of it, they just don’t want it made public.
I agree. Its not that hard to have a month's supply of groceries in the pantry, and everyone should make it a point to accumulate enough to get through at least that period of time... enough for themselves and the stray relative who is sure to turn up on their doorstep. You won't turn them away, so you may as well include them in your planning.
There is more thanonemof my relatives I’d have absolutely no problem turning away from my doorstep.
Prepping is something many can do, to only to the degree our locations, money, and family situations limit. The biggest problem will be the millions of Obama voters who will stream out of the cities once they collapse. This phase will last perhaps three months. Then the biggest problem will be from disease from the millions of unburied bodies. How does one plan for or cope with that? In a modified collapse, the government will become a tyranny, confiscating all private food, guns, and supplies, sending you and your family to a camp. How will you respond? How will your response enhance chances of survival?
If I have something I have options. If I plan I have options. If I am armed I have options. If I am organized with others I have options.
If I sit on the Bridge and wait for FEMA I have surrendered.
Prepping cost far less than you think. Even the poorest of us should be able to prep enough that our forefathers would consider us rich and they managed to tame a Continent with far less. Have we fallen so far that we do not dare try to do the same?
(ahem) So...where will you and your family be when the government comes?
oh how I miss Ronald Reagan right now.
Source?
Knowing that I have food, supplies, knowledge, and gear stashed away really sets my mind at ease.
Even better is the group, the others thought of things I never would have.
Thanks for all the pings Kart.
I began prepping a few months ago, when my personal circumstances changed. I began researching the various prepping outlets, websites and blogs. And at some folks' suggestion, I began looking more critically at events.
While there is a case for the sand-castle-on-the-beach analogy, with the collapse coming in waves, I suspect it is more like building a campfire. You pile tinder and kindling, maybe using a little accelerant. Then a single spark ignites the pile, and as the flames grow, you begin heaping more and bigger pieces, and watch the conflagration grow.
One example: 1914. The assassination of an obscure Archduke in Europe was the spark that ignited a decades-long buildup of diplomatic tinder, resulting in WW1.
Another case: the 1918 influenza outbreak. This was a worldwide pandemic that took two years to finally burn out, but when it started (March of '18), it was swift and fast-spreading, killing a target population in less than a month.
Another case: the panicky volatility of the stock market. The 1987 stock market crash, for one, was started by one spark, the Hong Kong market crashing, spreading worldwide over a period of five days. The 2010 "Flash Crash" shows how quickly the market can panic.
Another example: Katrina. A really good AAR on the storm and its aftermath can be found here. Points to take away include the race-motivated looting and crime; the authoritarian actions of the relief efforts; and how quickly things devolved into a SHTF scenario from a single event.
These points tell me that the kindling is ready to ignite, and it's been drenched with accelerant. We read the other day of the Italian bank that has locked out its depositors. We know of the issues with Greece and the Euro. The single spark could be anything: the acting-up promised by the Left at the RNC convention in Tampa; a natural disaster, whether storm or earthquake; the promised rioting regardless of the result of the Zimmerman Trial; or the Kenyan losing the election in November.
A fire starts with a single spark.
Nonsense!
It’s gonna be Zombie apocalypse, with a Mad Max economy.
Personally, I intend to be my own Jabba the Hutt warlord, with my very own swirly boobed dancing princess on a leash.
I’ve been studying end of the world scenarios (videoly) for years, so I feel confident when the SHTF (wouldn’t you like to know what that means) I’ll be ready for it.
Source? There have been numerous threads on FR with the information dating back to 2008.
We live out in the sticks and are thus far better off to survive a partial collapse than the poor bastards in cities that will become Mad Max made real. The real horror of New Orleans and Katrina was not that too many Democrats sat on their sofas and watched the water rise rather than get the hell out of town. The real horror was how fast law and order collapsed. It didn't take much. And people in the Deep Blue cesspool cities -- disarmed and totally unprepared -- will die by the millions after even a month of interruption to the lives of literal and psychic welfare they live. As they stream out of the cities, how well will you be prepared for them?
Wow. That AAR from Katrina is a great reality check and deserves highlighting. Give that a read when you get a chance, FRiend Drumbo.
http://www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm
I’m particularly struck by the suspicion & hostility toward the preppers from “rescue personnel” and non-prepper neighbors alike. Like crabs in a bucket, the lot of them.
While patting myself on the back for assuming an innocuous/harmless manner of moving armed in public, it’s clear that if I have to bunker in place alone, I really need to fortify the ole homeplace - sadly to protect from looters AND the supposed rescuers.
Dell employees were worried about their jobs. There had been layoffs and repositioning 2-3 years ago. After that, everything was hunky dorry. Amazing, huh.
There are several examples of the breakdown of law and order. Katrina in 2005. Los Angeles in 1992 (Rodney King). The 1977 New York blackout. Law and order, and polite society, is just a veneer.
As I remember, it was speculation, not fact. Probably true, though.
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