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WHAT DOES A BAD POLL PROVE? (Bloomberg Poll showing 64% approve Obama's immigration decree is bogus)
Powerline ^ | 06/20/2012 | JOHN HINDERAKER

Posted on 06/20/2012 8:45:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

What Does A Bad Poll Prove?

Nothing. Yesterday’s Bloomberg News poll is getting a lot of publicity, mainly for its purported finding that respondents approve of President Obama’s immigration decree by a 64-30 margin. But the poll had numerous other findings that cheered Democrats, as indicated by Bloomberg’s own headline: “Obama Leads In Poll As Voters View Romney As Out Of Touch.” And, in fact, in yesterday’s survey supposed likely voters favored Obama over Mitt Romney by a remarkable 13 points, 53-40.

This result is obviously an outlier, but that hasn’t prevented it from being widely repeated and commented upon. The obvious question is, why is it an outlier? Anyone who follows polls knows that the answers you get depend on large part on whom you ask, so the first question always is, what was the composition of the respondent pool?

For purposes of comparison, take a look at Bloomberg’s March poll. Just three months ago, Bloomberg found Obama and Romney locked in a 47-47 tie. Does anyone seriously believe that Obama’s stumbling campaign has produced a 13-point gain since March? Of course not. The difference lies in the composition of the sample.

In March’s survey, Bloomberg did not ask respondents to indicate whether they were Republicans or Democrats. Bloomberg did, however, ask the generic Congressional preference question, which is a fair proxy. The March respondents (including leaners) favored Republican candidates 46-44. The respondents in yesterday’s poll, on the other hand, favored Democrats 48-41. So there was a nine-point swing in favor of Democrat-leaning respondents, which, combined with the margin of error, accounts for the poll’s skewed result. In June, Bloomberg did ask the party affiliation question; Democrats (again, counting leaners) outnumbered Republicans 38-33. (In the Rasmussen survey, by way of contrast, 33.4% of likely voters say that they are Democrats, compared with 35.7% who describe themselves as Republicans.)

Why did Bloomberg over-sample Democrats in yesterday’s poll? It may have been largely random, but the fact that the survey was done on a Friday-Saturday-Sunday-Monday cycle no doubt contributed. If you telephone people on the weekend, you will over-sample Democrats, because Republicans go out more, on the average.

If you run a bad poll and produce an outlying result, you can get lots of publicity, especially if your results favor Democrats. But you can’t prove anything with a bad poll.

Bloomberg’s 64/30 finding on the immigration question is of course infected by the poll’s bad sample. But that particular question suffered from other defects as well. This was the question:

President Obama announced that the U.S. would halt the deportation of some illegal immigrants if they came here before age 16, have been in the country for five years, have no criminal record, are in school or have a high school diploma or have been honorably discharged from the military. Do you agree or disagree with this new policy?



TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: bloomberg; immigration; poll

1 posted on 06/20/2012 8:45:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

It proves Bloomberg’s agenda.


2 posted on 06/20/2012 8:51:49 AM PDT by DManA
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: SeekAndFind

They should poll construction workers in New york city whether they approve of Obamas immigration decree where just about every construction worker is out of work because illegals have taken all the jobs, not to mention road and bridge repair. In other words they are taking over the industry like they did taxi driving 20 years ago. How about we have illegals take over Congress as well, see how they like it? We already have an illegal as POTUS so why not?


4 posted on 06/20/2012 8:57:28 AM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (Some day our schools will teach the difference between "lose" and "loose")
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To: DManA

Everything that I have been reading indicates that Obama’s decree is meaningless. Janet Napolitano issued a statement saying that the new rules were discretionary, that the laws still apply, but the various agencies should use their own discretion in regard to enforcement, on a case to case basis.

Thomas Sowell, wrote an article saying that Obama’s decree is meaningless because it doesn’t have the force of law behind it and no young person is going to come forward and identify his parents as illegals, when they could be deported. Most young people are not willing to throw their family under the bus like Obama does.


5 posted on 06/20/2012 8:57:28 AM PDT by Eva
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To: SeekAndFind

They should poll construction workers in New york city whether they approve of Obamas immigration decree where just about every construction worker is out of work because illegals have taken all the jobs, not to mention road and bridge repair. In other words they are taking over the industry like they did taxi driving 20 years ago. How about we have illegals take over Congress as well, see how they like it? We already have an illegal as POTUS so why not?


6 posted on 06/20/2012 8:57:28 AM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (Some day our schools will teach the difference between "lose" and "loose")
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To: SeekAndFind

Bloomberg is a blooming idiot, despite his wealth.


7 posted on 06/20/2012 9:00:01 AM PDT by SoldierDad (Proud dad of an Army Soldier who has survived 24 months of Combat deployment.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“The sample was comprised of 4,009 Hispanic illegals sitting on their couches at 1PM.”


8 posted on 06/20/2012 9:01:10 AM PDT by pabianice
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama’s decree was nothing but an election year stunt, to keep the young Hispanics voting for him. It has no rule of law behind it and Janet Napolitano has issued a statement to Homeland Security agencies that the order was purely discretionary,

Obama was losing the Hispanic votes due the attacks on the Catholic Church and the gay marriage statement. Then he heard that Marco Rubio was getting ready to propose his own version of the dream act, which was similar to what Obama suggested, except that he was only going to include young Hispanics who were heading to college or other further education. So, Obama went out and stole his thunder.


9 posted on 06/20/2012 9:02:38 AM PDT by Eva
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To: SeekAndFind

Is this the same Bloomberg who said he’d rather vote for Romney than OsAMA? If so, he is just kissing butt to make up to the BLACK evil racist president!


10 posted on 06/20/2012 9:24:38 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: DManA

It proves Bloomberg’s agenda.


That poll released today that showed Obama leads Romney by 13% (53-40) is quite an outlier too, considering nearly all others are within two or three points.


11 posted on 06/20/2012 9:34:43 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Eva

The exceptions made for immigrants should be on a case by case basis also.

Of course their are exceptions for leniency in certain cases, because after all it was we who invited these workers, over by dropping all enforcement of border laws.

When the criminal element in Mexico drove the criminal activity across our border, things changed. Some of these working families were caught up in the head fake, after living here for a generation. Pouring across the border into the USA came those who needed work and fear for their lives.

I don’t know. Some of these, I couldn’t send back myself.


12 posted on 06/20/2012 9:35:40 AM PDT by RitaOK (NO ROMNEY, NO COMPROMISE. NO WAY. NO HOW. NOT NOW. NOT EVER.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The actual results were actually

30% NO

60% SÍ

10% No hablo Inglés.


13 posted on 06/20/2012 10:13:59 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (The Democratic Party strongly supports full civil rights for necro-Americans!)
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To: RitaOK

I could see a new policy that included immediate deportation of anyone who came here illegally, if the break the law, including driving without a license or insurance. I would also advocate licensing illegals with fingerprints instead of birth certificates, accompanied by a prepaid insurance policy.

I would also make gang membership reason for exportation.


14 posted on 06/20/2012 12:03:23 PM PDT by Eva
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To: SeekAndFind

I been reading the polls that say the economic recovery is getting closer and closer for 3 years now. Polls do not mean anything but misinformation . Like economic recovery now projected months away.New poll economic recovery extended to 12 months till we see improvements, on and on


15 posted on 06/20/2012 2:17:12 PM PDT by moonshinner_09
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