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Obama 290, Romney 222
Weekly Standard ^ | September 13, 2012 | JEFFREY H. ANDERSON

Posted on 09/13/2012 10:36:51 PM PDT by Steelfish

Obama 290, Romney 222 SEP 13, 2012 • BY JEFFREY H. ANDERSON

There are nine key swing states in this election (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada), with four other states (particularly Michigan, which President Obama must win, and North Carolina, which Mitt Romney must win) that also have some potential to come into play in a tight race.

So far, Rasmussen Reports is the only nonpartisan polling outfit that has conducted likely-voter surveys over the past two months in at least eight of those nine key swing states. Based on that polling, and assuming that the other states would go as expected, President Obama is currently on course for 290 electoral votes (and reelection), while Mitt Romney is on course for 222 -- with ties in Virginia and Colorado (and no recent polling available in New Hampshire).

Rasmussen's polling shows Obama up by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in Florida, 1 point (47 to 46 percent) in Ohio, 4 points (48 to 44 percent) in Pennsylvania, and 5 points (50 to 45 percent) in Nevada. It shows Romney up by 1 point (48 to 47 percent) in Wisconsin and 2 points (46 to 44 percent) in Iowa.

This polling highlights the crucial importance of Florida, a must-win state for Romney, and Ohio, a near-must-win state. If Romney's 2-point deficit in the Sunshine State and his 1-point deficit in the Buckeye State were to become slight advantages, then the overall tally would become Romney 269, Obama 243 -- as Florida represents a swing of 58 electoral votes (either Obama gets 29 or Romney gets 29), and Ohio represents a swing of 36 electoral votes (18 for one candidate or the other).

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 09/13/2012 10:36:54 PM PDT by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish

Bull.


2 posted on 09/13/2012 10:38:10 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: Steelfish

Not even taking into account undecided voters that would break for us? How about that gaping enthusiasm gap?


3 posted on 09/13/2012 10:39:21 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Steelfish

Weakly Standard working hard for Barry. I don’t even know why we are wasting the money to have an election. The Obamazombies in the state controlled “media” have got the whole thing figured out. The Kenyan won.


4 posted on 09/13/2012 10:43:17 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The United States of America apologizing to knuckledragging, cavedwelling Neandethals. Whodda thunk!)
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To: Steelfish

Bull Spit.


5 posted on 09/13/2012 10:44:46 PM PDT by SoldierDad (Proud dad of an Army Soldier who has survived 24 months of Combat deployment.)
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To: Steelfish

Uggh... pundits surely know the temporary nature of polling numbers right after conventions. Yet, it doesn’t prevent them from making prediction such as this one.


6 posted on 09/13/2012 10:52:02 PM PDT by paudio (Post-racial society: When we can legitimately hire and fire a Black man without feeling guilty.)
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To: Steelfish; All

If America only knew....

Will America be lost because noone had the guts to expose Obama?

The best Obama exposure site on the net:
(by our own FReeper, Beckwith)

The Obama File
http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_personal.html

The United States Library of Congress has selected
TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collection
of Internet materials
http://theobamafile.com/LibraryOfCongress.html

Just a few of the pages:

http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_politics.html

http://www.theobamafile.com/BarackObama.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_family/FamilyPage.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaEducation.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaPsychology.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaReligion.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaWife.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_associates/ObamaAssociates.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaIconography.htm

.

.


7 posted on 09/13/2012 10:52:37 PM PDT by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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To: SoldierDad

It is better if you replace the p with a t...go for the gold!


8 posted on 09/13/2012 10:54:35 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
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To: Steelfish

These people think they know everything, but they don’t know squat. I sat with John Fund at a bar in Las Vegas after the Republican debate. He said to me, and I quote.. “Mitt Romney will not be our nominee. You can take that to the bank.”. Again, you and I and everyone here can do better than they can.


9 posted on 09/13/2012 11:05:43 PM PDT by Hildy (F"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser." - Socrates)
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To: Steelfish

Bravo Sierra.

They are using the 2008 model for sampling, which is voting patterns from Obama’s 1st win. Not going to happen again.

When they use the 2010 model, which I believe is closer to reality, Obama loses in a route.

I will predict it right here and now. Romney wins with over 300 electoral votes.

AMERICA AT THE CROSSROADS OF HISTORY
http://www.jeffhead.com/crossroads.htm

CRTICAL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE 911-2012 ATTACKS
http://www.jeffhead.com/911-2012-questions.htm


10 posted on 09/13/2012 11:14:57 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Steelfish

Just as Israel is grappling with Iran getting nukes, we have to grapple with what are we going to do if Obama gets reelected? What would The Founders do?


11 posted on 09/13/2012 11:16:08 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Art in Idaho

Ask King George.


12 posted on 09/13/2012 11:19:28 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head
I will predict it right here and now. Romney wins with over 300 electoral votes.

I pray you are right. No matter what people think of Romney, we have to get rid of Obama first. That's job one. We can deal with RINOs later and then elect a true conservative.

13 posted on 09/13/2012 11:22:28 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Jeff Head
Ask King George.

I'll also make a prediction. If Obama gets reelected, there will be a 'get their guns' action and a Lexington/Concord bridge moment. And then. . . there's so much pent up emotion out here. . anything can happen.

Everyone I know is totally fed up, even 'the kids' as I call them, the 20 and 30 somethings are beginning to understand the real Obama and what he's doing to the country. Hopefully they'll turn out in large numbers on November 6th.

14 posted on 09/13/2012 11:31:14 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: patriot08
Thanks for posting The Obama File sites. Beckwith a true patriot. Everyone who votes should read his files. Spread the word everyone. . .
15 posted on 09/13/2012 11:38:05 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Art in Idaho

Yes, it’s a excellent file.
We should be proud of our FReeper, Beckwith.


16 posted on 09/13/2012 11:40:23 PM PDT by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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To: GGpaX4DumpedTea

“Bull Stit”?! o.O


17 posted on 09/14/2012 1:00:46 AM PDT by Bikkuri (Hope for Conservative push in the next 2-4 years..........)
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To: Steelfish

Obama has 290 EV’s, did I miss the election?


18 posted on 09/14/2012 1:04:27 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Art in Idaho
I can't fathom the idiot getting elected but its difficult to unseat an incumbant and what with the SCM running the show....

but donate people...donate and volunteer...work on getting your senators elected and your city councilmen and your governors...

we can't go quietly into that good night....

Canada is not that far away...I don't know if I can live in this country if my fellow citizens vote that maniac in....

19 posted on 09/14/2012 1:18:51 AM PDT by cherry
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To: Jeff Head
Jeff...from your lips to God's ears...please,please Lord....help us do this...

so pray too...donate, volunteer, and pray....

20 posted on 09/14/2012 1:20:18 AM PDT by cherry
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To: cherry

Especially pray.. Pray for an implosion by Obama.. pray for the largest turnout in America`s history. If we get unprecedented turnout, we have a chance to unseat that malevolence in the White House.


21 posted on 09/14/2012 2:46:47 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: Steelfish

Iowa is a lost cause.All most all my old friends back there love Obama and hate republicans with a passion from what I see on their postings from Facebook.It’s become the California of the midwest.


22 posted on 09/14/2012 2:57:09 AM PDT by Uncle Meat
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To: Steelfish

Iowa is a lost cause.All most all my old friends back there love Obama and hate republicans with a passion from what I see on their postings from Facebook.It’s become the California of the midwest.


23 posted on 09/14/2012 2:57:19 AM PDT by Uncle Meat
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To: Uncle Meat

I disagree. Iowa is the most winnable of them all quite simply because it is the whitest.


24 posted on 09/14/2012 3:43:24 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: Steelfish

First of all, when did Pennsylvania become a swing state? That’s news to me. Also, I alluded to this on another post. The debates are coming and that will change everything, one way or the other. I don’t get too excited or depressed over the polling data at this stage of the game. The debates are the tell-all.


25 posted on 09/14/2012 4:25:33 AM PDT by Cherokeesquaw
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To: Cherokeesquaw

Let me say one thing about the debates that is certain:

If there’s no knock-out by Romney, or Obama doesn’t totally screw up, then the press WILL declare Obama the winner. They’ll fawn all over him, his speaking prowess, his “intelligence” and all get tingles up their collective legs.

So let’s not count on the debates to change anything. Romney needs to spend the next (less than) 2 months on fire!


26 posted on 09/14/2012 4:45:36 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: Alas Babylon!

Absolutely agree. I have been following politics for 20 years and I have yet to see a republican “win” a debate at any level of government.


27 posted on 09/14/2012 4:56:55 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: Steelfish

I didn’t even bother reading it.

Pure unadulterated crap.


28 posted on 09/14/2012 4:59:51 AM PDT by 2111USMC (aim small, miss small)
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To: Steelfish
There are nine key swing states in this election (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada), with four other states (particularly Michigan, which President Obama must win, and North Carolina, which Mitt Romney must win) that also have some potential to come into play in a tight race.

If you look at them carefully one sees that Romney's chances are very good. Polls and past election trends would give Obama Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and New Hampshire. The same trends would give Romney North Carolina and Colorado. That gives Obama a 247 to 215 advantage.

I don't see Obama taking Florida, I just don't. The fact that the polls are as close as they are this late with all the Democrat attempts to hang Mediscare on the GOP really makes me think that at the end of the day the state will wind up in the Romney camp. That gives him 244, three votes behind Obama.

Iowa is a wild card but again I think it'll go for Romney. Even though he's from next door, I think Obama has done enough to alienate the generally moderate-to-conservative Iowa voters enough to send it into the Romney camp. 250 to 247.

Wisconsin. Most pundits give this to Obama but the overlook the fact that the Democratic margins of victory have been shrinking steadily. 2008 aside, the Democrats took the state in 2004 and 2000 by about half a percentage point. 1992 and 1996 were aided by Perot. With Ryan on the ticket I think that this is a GOP win. Maybe narrow but still a win.

That leaves Ohio and Virginia. Everyone is saying that Romney can't win without Ohio, but look at the map and you see that Virginia is actually the more important of the two, and the more winnable. If what I predict pans out then winning Virginia gives Romney 273 electoral votes and the win. Virginia went Democrat in 2008 for the first time since 1964. I see 2008 and an aberration rather than an trend, and I think the state is very winnable. And if Romney takes Virginia the Ohio doesn't matter. It's icing on the cake, but even without it Romney is in the White House.

29 posted on 09/14/2012 5:56:03 AM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: Steelfish; All

Do people still consider the Weakly Standard “conservative”? Come on now.

Just because they run ads on Fox News does not make them “conservative”


30 posted on 09/14/2012 8:00:34 AM PDT by SeminoleCounty (The DNC Convention is like the Nuremburg Rallies for non-white folks)
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To: GGpaX4DumpedTea

Bull Stit??


31 posted on 09/16/2012 5:58:14 PM PDT by SoldierDad (Proud dad of an Army Soldier who has survived 24 months of Combat deployment.)
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To: Uncle Meat

God help us.


32 posted on 09/16/2012 6:03:46 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

OMFG.. are you serious? The Weekly Standard working for Obama? Freepers better get their heads out of their butts.


33 posted on 09/16/2012 6:10:44 PM PDT by paul544
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