Why Our Recent Polling (Is Accurate) And Shows A Close Election For President

Susquehanna ^ | 9/24/2012 | Jim Lee

[whitey righty]

Recently two polls conducted by our firm showing President Obama narrowly leading Mitt Romney by 1 point (48% to 47%, sponsored by the Republican State Committee of Penna.), and a second released by the Pittsburgh Tribune Review on Sunday, September 23 showing Obama leading Romney by 2 points (47%-45%). Both margins conflict with other surveys conducted recently including one by the Philadelphia Inquirer (Obama +11) and Muhlenberg College (Obama +9). Following are answers to questions about our survey methodology as well as our basis for predicting a close election.

[Parley Baer]

I did not see where it actually stated this poll is only for the state of Pennsylvania. If so this is good news.

[Mr. Jeeves]

I have yet to see a single poll showing Obama at 50%, even with the slant.

[Perdogg]

This is about PA.

[whitey righty]

Yep, this is Pennsylvania only. I probably should have added that to the title.

[LS]

“We estimate this 7-point drop off could mean up to 434,000 fewer votes cast for Obama this November, leaving a margin of less than 200,000 votes between the candidates.”

Money quote. If this 7-point drop holds for OH, NC, NV, MI, VA, and FL, then the election is over.

[LS]

“President Obama garnered 40 percent, a seven-point dive from rural battleground voting four years ago.”

Hmm. Here is a poll of rural areas where Romney has a 14 point lead, but the interesting thing is this 7-point Obama fall-off from 08. This is now the second poll today that mentions this. Dick Morris insists he is way underperforming 08.

[Uncle Miltie]

"First, our ratio of interviews conducted with Republicans and Democrats in our recent polls (49D – 43R) gives Democrats a 6-point advantage based on the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in actual registration. However, this ratio is slightly more Republican based on both national and state polling showing that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats this year given high intensity among Republicans who strongly disapprove of the President’s job performance. Nonetheless, this +6 Democratic advantage is only one point less Democrat than the 7-point advantage these same exit polls gave Democrats in the 2008 presidential election."

Yeah, 2012 will be within 1% of 2008. Uh huh.

[SeeSharp]

Yeah, 2012 will be within 1% of 2008. Uh huh.

Right. LOL.

As if 2010 never even happened.

[feralcat]

National polling has Obama up 1% to 2%. Yet all these “battleground” state polls have Obama winning in a landslide.

So we’re supposed to believe that Obama is losing support in the blue states and the red states, yet is surging in the swing states.

That national polls have adjusted to a “likely voter” model, but these state polls are just mindlessly assuming that the turnout will be just like 2008.

Guess which polls the MSM likes more!

[103198]

Mark...

[MrDem]

but the interesting thing is this 7-point Obama fall-off from 08.

From reading hundreds and hundreds of data points over the past two months from varying sources, I've noted that percentage change has been pretty consistent. I think the final number will be Romney 53% and The Pathological Liar 46%.

[LS]

I just don’t know anymore. We’re seeing very good performance in absentee ballots in OH in terms of high GOP requests vs. Dems, but it’s all about the “Is.” If they go for Romney by 10, it’s all over. If they go for Romney by 1-2, it will be close. If it’s tied, Obama wins.

[wayoverontheright]

As if 2010 never even happened.

Exactly!

Obama certainly didn't heed any of the lessons, he doubled down on the policies that brought the Dems that shellacking. The Dem party learned nothing, and the media completely sublimated what should have been a dire warning.