Posted on 10/06/2012 4:30:06 AM PDT by LD Jackson
The media will no doubt trumpet the new 7.8% unemployment rate as evidence that Obama’s policies are working. Unfortunately the new 7.8% figure is a political fraud. The numbers don’t add up. The government claims 114,000 jobs were added last month, which isn’t all that great of a number. This resulted in a 0.3% drop in unemployment? That isn’t believable in the least. The ranks of the unemployed decreased by 456,000 last month. Well wait a minute, how does that figure decrease by so much when only 114,000 new jobs were created? The government is tossing 340,000+ people out of the job market in order to boast unemployment is down. It took me all of 30 seconds to figure out what they’re doing. Unfortunately the press will only report the 7.8% number.
CNBC claims the numbers are tame and they’re confused by all of the contradictory figures. This report is overtly political. It’s meant to secure Obama’s re-election. Just wait, the November surprise we’ll get when the October jobs report is released on November 2nd will be even worse. Magically unemployment will be below 7.5%. That the government threw half a million more people out of the job market will be ignored. Just in the last two months the government has claimed that over 500,000 people are no longer in the job market. Where are they? Did they leave the country? Surely they aren’t all women who have decided to stay at home with their kids.
In fact, the numbers are even worse than this. We need 150,000 new jobs every month just to keep pace with population growth. Each month new kids graduate college or high school, jobs need to be available for them. When 114,000 jobs are created that means we aren’t even keeping pace with population growth. Sure, some people are retiring and that offsets the number. But a lot of people are foregoing retiring in this economy. Romney was right during the debate 50% of college graduates can’t find a job out of college right away. These people are either going directly to the ranks of the unemployed or the government simply isn’t counting them.
The real telling figure from the government is the U-6 report which indicates that real unemployment remained at 14.7% last month. U-6 includes people who have given up (like the 340,000+ the government doesn’t count in the official unemployment rate) and people who are underemployed. In other words, the economy isn’t really getting better. Instead the government is manipulating the numbers to favor an incumbent President.
Mitt Romney needs to issue an ad today attacking the new unemployment rate. He needs to focus on the 340,000+ that the government simply removed from the job force. The ad should make it clear 114,000 isn’t good enough. If we had a real recovery we would be creating jobs at the rate of 500,000 a month like we did during the Reagan recovery. What we have now isn’t a real recovery, it’s a stagnation. Romney has to make these points loud and clear over the next couple of days otherwise any bump he would have received from his debate victory will be lost.
This sort of nonsense job reports shouldn’t surprise any of us. It was entirely predictable. It’s a good example of why government really shouldn’t be in the business of labor statistics in the first place. These statistics are easily manipulated to favor those already in power, no matter the party. In fact, the government has changed the formula so that the U-6 rate, which used to be the official unemployment rate, is no longer used officially. Why? Because it hurts the incumbent as it is always higher than the current version of the unemployment rate. The question now is whether the public will pay attention to the September number or whether they’ll wonder how it dropped so much when only 114,000 jobs were created. My guess is that they’ll pay attention to the number alone.
UPDATE: It appears that several Bureau of Labor Statistics economists are donors to Obama’s re-election campaign. Is anyone at all surprised?
Yes, I saw those articles. Thanks!
You’re right. If there were a republican in the White House the democrats’ primary issue right now would have been unemployment extension. They are normally the party that thinks about it first because they see it as votes. But not this year. The silence is deafening.
They know that if it were extended the unemployment rate would be above 8.3% today.
On the contrary, I believe Colonel West will be one of the great future Presidents, will bring honor and skill to the Office.
David Dinkins, Al Sharpton and Shelly Silver in one disgusting smelly package.
[...the government threw half a million more people out of the job market will be ignored...]
Exactly, they have effectively been tagged as non-persons, they no longer exist.
Hilda Solis is a committed commie buddy of Obie's, and she's reportedly offended that her numbers are being questioned. So sad, Hilda. You're a crook, just like your boss.
Further, I understand a relatively small sample is surveyed every month. I believe 125,000 businesses and 30,000 homes. A staff of 50 should be able to handle that, vs the 5,000 that BLS probably employs. I am admittedly shooting numbers from the hip, but I do want answers as to the makeup of this bureaucracy and rest assured Mitt will want to know come Jan.
Everyone is done on January 1 with extensions...No more EUC or EB. The only way for a person to continue receiving UI is if they have entitlement to a regular UI claim....Work in at least 2 quarters...
Prepare for riots in the streets....just cringing at the thought of all of those without any income BECAUSE of the policies of King Bozo Oligarch.
Except when they don’t pay their taxes....
Prepare for riots in the streets....just cringing at the thought of all of those without any income BECAUSE of the policies of King Bozo Oligarch.
If Romney wins you can bet that the democrats in Congress will start screaming for an emergency extension of Unemployment and they will do it for 2 reasons.
1) To pander, of course
2) Because if it passes the unemployment rate will begin to rise under Mitt Romney and he will own every percentage point it goes up from Jan 20th.
Suddenly this will be called the Romney Recession and will be the issue they will run on in 2014 and 2016.
It's VERY important that the American people know exactly why it's now at 7.8%.
Fascinating. Please forward the link.
“The New Normal”
We are trying to fight in a war of words with the Left which began about 100 or so battles ago. So much ground has already been ceded that reasonable arguments seem “mean”, common sense approaches sound hurtful, and real solutions sound like pie-in-the-sky.
Just think about the idea of SOCIAL security...how did an idea with such a name get such a footing!? In other words, how was it so many Americans were willing to trade in their status as free men and women for a continuous state of dependency upon a government-run program? I know that this occurred as a result of the Depression, but still...you would have thought there would have been enough folks around to limit the reach of such a plan as to create a Sunset moment based upon a full economic turnaround. Now, we’ve got EVERYONE thinking, “I HAVE TO HAVE my social security check or I’m going to die!” All the while not realizing that this pot of money has been abused by gov’t officials time and time again to buy votes.
The focus on unemployment rates is misdirected energy. Because “benefits collection” has become an alternative lifestyle, “unemployment rates” based on who chooses to seek a job have vastly reduced relevance.
What matters is how many people are employed divided by the total population they are supporting. Somehow we have to force the government and media to report the total number of full time workers, part time workers, self-employed, and the military against the actual population. This would reveal a “carry rate” that could be compared over time. “How many people does each actual worker carry?” is the real question.
Exactly. Watch the media blame EVERYTHING on Mittens from the get-go. I really hope he is fearless and has investigators expose all of the crimes committed by King Bozo and his Merry Felons....
If Obama loses the next debate we might have 5% unemployment by the election...
Except for the 100-mile high stack of IOUs, the SS coffers have been emptied long ago. There’s nothing there, except utter and complete bankruptcy and insolvency. America’s already gone over the precipice; it’s just a matter of how much longer until we crash and hit rock bottom. SHTF.
133,561,000 workers Jan 2009
133,500,000(P) workers Sept 2012
Total Non Farm Payroll Seasonal Adjusted
Bureau of Labor Statistics
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1
“Except for the 100-mile high stack of IOUs...”
So, then there IS something in the trust fund?!!! Whew! Thank goodness! I can count on my retirement now. Thaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaank Youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu, Uncle Sam!
2 ply? More wasted federal dollars!
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