Posted on 10/07/2012 10:45:45 AM PDT by whitedog57
The survey of households uncovered an additional 873,000 jobs last month, 187,000 of which were government workers. Likely, this was a BAD sample where they happened to call more people who had a job than didn't. It should have been thrown out, of course, and a revised sample done. [This reminds me of the miraculous appearance of boxes of ballots during a close election].
Here is a chart of the household survey and the ADP survey of businesses (Non farm payrolls). Hmm. The household survey is definitely noisier than the NFP survey. But the spike in the household survey of employment is pretty far above the ADP survey. Too high, in fact. Last month's household survey is definitely an ... anomaly. Notice that the household survey was the LARGEST SINCE PRESIDENT OBAMA TOOK OFFICE and the furthest from the NFP reading. Small sample problem or a page from The Betty Crocker Cookbook?
Next month's jobs report should show "mean reversion" with a downward adjustment to the household survey, unless ol' Betty Crocker replaced Hilda Solis as Labor Secretary and cooked the books.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.wordpress.com ...
He'll blame Bush or the Tea Party!!
The BLS probably altered the criteria or definition for what constitutes a “household job” to include government created jobs not normally found in this statistic. If the “prior” statistic criteria were used, the total unemployment numbers would be much greater and the new jobs obtained far less than what the Sept report indicates.
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