Skip to comments.How to Tell Which Campaign Thinks They’re Winning — and Losing
Posted on 11/02/2012 9:02:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In a matter of hours, the 2012 presidential race will be over. Amen. Many of us burned out on this race sometime during the summer and have stuck it out this long only because we feel duty bound to see who wins. Of course, we care about the winner but some of us are in a Scarlett O’Hara frame of mind: “I’ll think about that tomorrow.”
The “What It All Means” crowd are sharpening their pencils for Election Day on Tuesday to tell us exactly what we should be thinking when either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama appears on stage to claim victory. Hopefully. Hopefully Tuesday. Hopefully fairly early on Tuesday. Most of us have probably already lost enough sleep because of this election and could use a break.
Alas, despite the fantasies of Dick Morris,  such an outcome is probably not in the cards. In fact, with nine states polling within the margin of error and literally hundreds of election law lawyers standing by to wrangle every last vote from every last precinct — even if there aren’t any — we may not see an end to the contest until after the national Thanksgiving turkey has been pardoned. Or not. The president may be in no mood to be merciful and might decide that an execution is in order at the White House. After all, if Obama loses, he can hardly cut off Axelrod’s head — no matter how much we might think he deserves it.
But that’s in the future. Meanwhile, there’s an election to be won and how these final hours will be utilized by each campaign will tell the tale of victory or defeat.
Most of us don’t need to be reminded to forget the polls. With so many of them within the margin of error, they can safely be dismissed — even those with which you might actually agree. Nate Silver  and his 79% chance of an Obama victory can also be ignored. Mr. Silver, who used to analyze baseball metrics for a living, can be excused for his determined optimism. No doubt he is a Chicago Cubs fan — a team that has not won a World Series championship for more than 100 years, but whose fans continue to chant the mantra “wait until next year!” Unfortunately, Mr. Obama might not have that option, although he would make an excellent pitchman for other lost causes like the UN or the Arab League.
How, then, do we determine the state of the race as we go into the last weekend? The simple answer is listen to the campaigns themselves. Not the self-serving spin on issues, or the mindless attacks on their opponent. We should be listening to what they aren’t saying in so many words (but are screaming loud and clear) by reading their schedule of appearances.
Where are the candidates going to be between now and Election Day? What states are they visiting? What TV markets are they hitting? Where are their major surrogates going to be? And where are they placing those precious last-minute ad buys?
The U.S. is a continental country and the swing states are spread out from Nevada to New Hampshire,. from Florida to Iowa. The campaign planes can only fly so many miles in so many hours and it is crucial that planners in both camps maximize the impact their principles can have on a given state.
The Christian Science Monitor  lists the states both candidates will be hitting in the next few days:
On Thursday, Mr. Obama will be in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado. Friday, hes campaigning in Ohio. Saturday is Ohio, Wisconsin again, then Iowa and Virginia. Sunday is New Hampshire, Florida, a return to Ohio, and another stop in Colorado. Monday is (whew!) Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa.
Mr. Romneys schedule isnt quite as crammed, at least not yet. On Thursday, the Massachusetts ex-governor is supposed to spend all day in Virginia. Friday is Wisconsin and Ohio. Saturday, hes hitting New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa. His Sunday destinations have yet to be announced, but on Monday, hes planning to be in Manchester, N.H.
Mr. Romney has since added a stop in Pennsylvania on Sunday. With the polls tightening in the state, the GOP candidate is not only going to visit, but has bought nearly a million dollars in ads to air through Tuesday. As if to confirm that the state is in play, the president’s campaign has also purchased a sizable chunk of time in the Keystone State, spending $1.6 million in a state he won by 10 points in 2008.
Even more significantly, according the the Lehigh Valley Morning Call, several Romney super Pacs have also begun to pour money into the state. “Karl Rove’s American Crossroads made a $1.2 million buy, and the billionaire Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity a $1.5 million buy, both groups revealed Wednesday.” The paper is also reporting that two of Romney’s main surrogates, Marco Rubio and Tagg Romney, will visit the state.
Coupled with Romney’s investment of precious campaign cash, that’s not only an awful lot of money for a week’s worth of ads, but it also gives the lie to the Obama campaign’s charge that this is just an elaborate feint by the Romney team to force a counter-move by the Obama camp. David Axelrod told the Morning Joe program that “he’ll shave his mustache of 40 years if Obama loses the state.” Darn. And I was going to buy David a mustache trimmer for Christmas.
It’s still an uphill battle for Romney in Pennsylvania, but with the northeastern part of the state angry over Obama’s coal policy and suburban enclaves returning home to support Republicans, the Romney camp obviously sees an opening and is looking to exploit it.
Mitt Romney has said repeatedly over the last week that he wants to “expand the map” into states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought safe for the Democrats in 2012. He is doing this in Pennsylvania, in Wisconsin, and, to some extent, in Michigan (although there are no plans yet announced for either Romney or Ryan to make a stop there). The Romney campaign has purchased some ad time in Michigan, however, and the Obama camp was forced to counter. This, indeed, may be a feint given the historic ability of Michigan’s unions to get out the vote for Democrats and the most recent Detroit Free Press  poll that gives Obama a 6 point lead. But stranger things have happened, and if the Romney campaign sniffs a shift in those polls before Tuesday, they may add a stop or two in Michigan.
It is Wisconsin where the Obama camp appears to be most worried. Despite a Marquette Law School poll  showing the president leading by 8 points in the Badger State, the Obama campaign has scheduled no less than three additional appearances in Wisconsin before the election (the president was in Green Bay on Thursday). Clearly, if the president really thought he was up by 8 points in a state he won by 10 in 2008, he wouldn’t be spending precious time by visiting the state to shore up his support.
Part of the explanation for the Obama camp’s nervousness in Wisconsin may be that the GOP has a get-out-the-vote operation that for once is the equal to, or superior to, that of the Democrats. The massive organization built by Scott Walker that outperformed the polls in his recall election last summer has been augmented by the RNC. Obama doesn’t need Wisconsin to win. But losing the state would help Romney tremendously.
The president was in Las Vegas on Thursday while Paul Ryan visited Reno. The Las Vegas Review-Journal  is reporting that Romney is likely to make one more stop before election day in the state. The precious hours spent on the campaign plane to get to Nevada means that the GOP has hardly given up despite a recent poll showing the president up by 4.
Nevada is another state thought safely in Obama’s column which now has shown a narrowing to where Republicans believe they have a legitimate shot. Obama’s lead in early voting is only half of what it was in 2008, giving Romney hope that the state’s sizable Mormon population and the historic advantage Republicans hold outside of Clark County (Las Vegas) could tip Nevada to the GOP in 2012.
The rest of the scheduling will probably reflect the closeness of the races in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia. Both candidates, their running mates, their wives, and their surrogates will fan out across these states digging for every last vote, boosting the spirits of volunteers by dropping by campaign offices, participating in interviews with local media, and revving up their respective get-out-the-vote operations. It is likely that additional events will be added to each day’s calendar; rallies will be held far into the night as the candidates push themselves to exhaustion by working 20 hour days.
As for where to get a good idea of both campaign’s schedules, CNN’s Political Ticker  publishes a rundown every morning. Politico  has a calendar that lists daily campaign stops for the principles as well as major surrogates. And the campaign websites might have updates that will be helpful.
Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com
URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/how-to-tell-which-campaign/
URLs in this post:
 fantasies of Dick Morris,: http://nation.foxnews.com/2012-presidential-election/2012/10/31/dick-morris-here-comes-landslide
 Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/
 Christian Science Monitor: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/1101/Obama-vs.-Romney-What-do-their-schedules-say-about-presidential-race
 Detroit Free Press: http://www.wzzm13.com/news/article/230292/14/Free-Press-Poll-Obama-leads-Romney-by-6-pts
 Marquette Law School poll: http://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/10/31/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-obama-ahead-in-wisconsin-baldwin-with-slight-edge-in-close-senate-race/
 Las Vegas Review-Journal: http://www.lvrj.com/news/ryan-to-stump-in-reno-thursday-same-day-obama-campaigns-in-las-vegas-176627111.html
 recent poll : http://www.lvrj.com/news/obama-widens-lead-in-nevada-176737281.html
 CNN’s Political Ticker: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
 Politico: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/calendar/
Nice article. Links are good too. Thanks.
Morris will say he couldn't have forseen the bounce Obama got from hurricane Sandy as a way of explaining away his ridiculously silly prediction of a Romney landslide.
I largely agree with this. Both campaigns have a clear strategy. obama’s is defensive in the extreme. Romney’s is offensive. That doesn’t mean Romney wins automatically, but it is an accurate assessment of where the race sits in the final hours.
I also note that the rhetoric of both campaigns is really wildly, supernaturally confident. Certainly the craziest I have seen in my lifetime (except where there wasn’t a real contest, like 08). obama is way cockier than either Bush or Kerry in 04.
I don’t think the “we are winning” rhetoric from both campaigns tells us much, except that, perhaps, it is extremely close and that any advantage to be gained is worth trying for.
(Or....living in my own private hope/wish/prayer....Romney is actually 3 or 5 ahead....and that Gallup is right).
At the end of the day, this sits where it has always say:
Ohio is important.
Either Romney or obama could win. (Or else Romney could win big....keep hoping and praying).
I think it may be at least a week before we know the official outcome.
It will be a Romney landslide. It will be around 47% to 53% which is a landslide. Morris is the only one who predicted the midterm landslide and nothing has changed.
Pray for America
Utter hogwash. Virtually everyone in the predicting business correctly called the Republicans to win the midterms in a landslide. Even that goofy Nate Silver predicted the Republicans would win over 50 seats in the midterms. Same is true with Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, etc.
Morris was wildly optimistic and predicted a near 100 seat win for the Republicans which wasn't even close.
You don’t think Willard will win big? I think he will. People will choose the slow cancer over being set on fire right now.
Obama has nothing like the enthusiasm he had four years ago, and while few actually like Romney many more can gleefully vote against Obama.
“I think it may be at least a week before we know the official outcome.”
Could be. Al Franken style recounts attempted.
I doubt that President Obama will get a bounce by a natural phenomena that suppresses the important early vote by his base, especially in Philadelphia.
In PA, is the Eastern (Dem) half of the state affected by Sandy, possibly with gas prices high, power lines down, and people with other things on their minds than voting? What about New York? Will Sandy depress votes in the NYC area enough to let the upstaters carry the state? What about Mass and CT? If fact, all of New England, such as NH, VT, and ME? Will the coastal liberal vote be depressed more than inland staters?
Finally, I remember an old saying back from when most people voted on election day: "The weather determines the turnout." Republicans have always been determined, broken glass voters. They will come out in a hurricane to vote. Dems will stay home if there is a rainshower. I know the actual storm is passed, but it happened during early voting, and there was bad weather that affected states as far away as MI and OH.
“....and while few actually like Romney”
Uhhh, you DO realize that Romney’s personal approval (likeability) numbers are now HIGHER across the nation then are Obama’s don’t you?
Enoch Powell was right. I see Rivers of Blood in the future.
RE: Morris was wildly optimistic and predicted a near 100 seat win for the Republicans which wasn’t even close.
NOPE. I distinctly and very clearly heard him say 64 to 66 seats when interviewed by Hannity. He was quite close ( the final number was 63 ).
I know there is a research term for bias based on what you “know.”
But I just cannot see Obama winning a single vote that McCain got.
I cannot see him getting more minorities to vote.
I cannot see him getting ALL of the college/youth vote. They are pissed off.
All of these little pieces, add up.
I think Romney wins it comfortably. Perhaps not a landslide. But I think a lot of folks in the media are just as biased with their views as I am with mine.
I am a little nervous...but I will get up and go to work on Wednesday no matter what.
I predict we know by midnight, Tuesday.
Incorrect. Morris predicted as many as 100 seats and virtually guaranteed we win the Senate. Neither of those things happened. I’d link some of his quotes but they go back to lefty sites lampooning Morris and I don’t want to give them any traffic.
Romney may pull this out, but it is not going to be a landslide by any stretch of the imagination. I would be willing to bet Morris’s excuse will be Hurricane Sandy. He will say he couldn’t have forseen the bump Hussein got from it at the last minute.
Uhhh, you DO realize that Romneys personal approval (likeability) numbers are now HIGHER across the nation then are Obamas dont you?
Uuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhh, you DO realize that is not much of a benchmark?
Well I stand by my philosophy of always being pessimistic, that way you’re never disappointed.
or rather always disappointed in advance
Inevitable. The only question is when.
So is a post - United States America.
The only questions are when, and why.
LOL, but it was you who specifically said, “no one much likes Romney”....right?
All I did was point out how very wrong you are. Perhaps you meant YOU don’t like Romney?
I'm afraid that might be true no matter who wins.
True. But didn’t Rothenberg, Cook and Silver early in 2010 that the GOP has little chance to win the House? At the very least I’ll give credit to Morris for catching the wave first.
People liked Carter in 1980 too. Didn’t help him much.
RE: Incorrect. Morris predicted as many as 100 seats and virtually guaranteed we win the Senate. Neither of those things happened. Id link some of his quotes but they go back to lefty sites lampooning Morris and I dont want to give them any traffic.
I still INSIST that I am correct because I HEARD HIM SAY IT ON THE HANNITY SHOW ON DRIVE TIME RADIO. I remember it VERY CLEARLY. The figure was 64 to 66 seats.
And YES AGAIN, I HEARD HIM SAY IT. It has been SEARED IN ME. And the interview was a mere 5 days before November 2, 2010. It was the LAST FRIDAY OF OCTOBER (10/29/2012) that the interview was held.
“LOL, but it was you who specifically said, no one much likes Romney....right?”
No. That is not what I said. I said ....and while few actually like Romney, as quoted from your very own post at 14 quoting mine at 8. Unimpressive trolling.
Morris says a lot of stuff. He could have thrown the numbers you remember out too. There is no doubt that Morris was talking about upwards of a 100 seat gain for the GOP in the midterms. He also all but guaranteed the Republicans would win the Senate in 2010. You can easily search Google to see just how bad his predictions are.
Morris owes O’Reilly a pile of steak dinners because of all the predictions he makes that are wrong.
“Perhaps you meant YOU dont like Romney?”
Oh, just to clarify this point, no, I don’t like him. I detest him in fact. Since first becoming aware of him in the 2008 campaign I have only come to detest him more and have never said otherwise. I detest his opponent too, and that too only increases as time goes by.
I heard Morris predict 100. That doesn’t mean he didn’t make other, less grandiose predictions, but he definitely said 100 was possible. I remember thinking at the time that he’d gone off the deep end...but he did it.
I can only vouch for his prediction on the Lower House and again, HE SAID 64 to 66 SEATS on the Hannity interview at October 29,2010. I VOUCH FOR THAT BECAUSE *I HEARD IT* and I *REMEMBER IT*.
Unless he changed his mind and then said 100 seats a few days later (highly unlikely), I believe that was HIS LAST AND FINAL PREDICTION for the House in 2010.
I am not saying he is going to be right this time. I am just saying that he is NOT ALWAYS WRONG EITHER.
I agree with your analysis. Further to your point here:
“I cannot see him getting ALL of the college/youth vote. They are pissed off.”
I think the Democrats will have -permanently- alienated many of these young people. They are not the credulous Baby-boomer generation. They are critical thinkers almost to a fault, and the Democrats will have lost most of the smart and ambitious ones.
When did he say 100? Was it after October 29,2010?
I PERSONALLY REMEMBER HIS INTERVIEW WITH HANNITY ON OCTOBER 28,2010 ON 770 WABC saying it was going to be 64 to 66 seats.
If he said 100 earlier, and then switched to 64 to 66 just a few days before November 2, then he is no better than Intrade, which predicted that there was over 80% chance that the SCOTUS would overturn Obamacare only to suddenly switch at the very last hour.
I enjoy Morris a lot, but he has one glaring Achilles heel - he extrapolates a given trend into the future without any eventual countervailing force. Increasing opposition, fatigue, friction, exhaustion of an existing pool or what have you. “If I throw this ball in air at x miles per hour, it will escape the solar system in y years.”
He is perceptive at spotting turning points and snap shot positions, but he goes kind of wild with projections from those points.
Again, I heard Morris give the figure 64 to 66 seats On Hannity’s radio program between 3 to 4 PM on October 29,2010 on WABC 770 AM dial during drive time in NY.
Unless he went nuts and then changed his mind and then suddenly said 100 a few days later before Nov. 2, I don’t think he was that far off, and that was his FINAL prediction.
Hogwash, the mainstream media a month before the election was still predicting the Dems would hold the house while Morris was saying 65-80 seats. I predicted 100 seats a year before the election and was laughed at. Morris and I were much closer than the mediots and poll dancers.
You better get going, there is another optimist on another thread you need to straighten out.
Pray for America
My neice, who just graduated law school and passed the MA and NY bar exams (Yeah for her) is working for $20 an hour as an over qualified para legal.
She was such a classic “College Student for Obama” clone last time around that it drove me nuts.
Four years later, she is volunteering for Scott Brown and joins me in hating Obama. Of course, she is still all “social justice” focused. So the transformation is not complete.
Based on that alone, I suggest that Obama will loose a significant percentage of college kids—to 26 year olds. They feel as if they were screwed.
A common phrase to her over the last six months: Welcome to my world!
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