Posted on 11/06/2012 10:27:27 AM PST by Laissez-faire capitalist
Silver was also fed Obama insider polling info in 2008, and IMO is in the propaganda business for his propagandizing employer in 2012.
Thanks. I really didn’t know who Nate Silver was. I should have googled him, but he didn’t even show up on my political radar. So I didn’t bother. Thanks again.
One very nice benefit that will occur should America do the right thing today is that Nate Silver will be put in the place he ought to be put: in the trash bin of reality.
He was supposedly fed internal polls in 2008...which made his “analysis” not so much due to his brains, but his access to information.
There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.
They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).
They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.
They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.
There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.
They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).
They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.
They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.
I’ve been seeing a lot of 300s for hussein.
Since you're using the train and slow/fast analogy, all I say is that it ain't the speed, it's the acceleration.
Is the Romney train just a slower train going at a constant speed or a train that is slowing down so that it will eventually come to a stop?
Both situations sees the train heading in the wrong direction slowly, but with vastly different ending scenarios.
When you are on a train and walking towards the rear, you are still moving forward towards the destination.
That is correct. He had signed confidentiality agreements in place with the Obama campaign in 2008 and was fed their internal polling data.
So... in other words... “the model” — he didn’t build that, the Obama campaign did?
“Who is Nate Silver?”
I know most Freepers would rather stick their heads inside Moo-chelle’s big ass before reading DU forums, but FYI, Nate Silver is the DU’s version of Dick Morris here. The brain-dead members there quote him a lot.
Romney win: slow train to socialism.
Obama win: fast train to socialism.
It only makes sense to drink radioactive chemicals when you already have cancer
Does Nate Silver have money riding on the election? Wonder if he is putting these negative Romney odds out there, but actually is secretly betting on Romney. He’d make a fortune with such long odds.
If you don’t like the projections of poll aggregators like Sam Wang or Nate Silver, blame the polls, not the aggregators.
In Wang’s case, for example, he has *completely* documented his inputs and methods - and his results mirror the polls, that’s for example why Romney’s chances improved dramatically after the first debate and them declined again afterwards.
Nate Silver’s methods area bit less transparent as he is also including factors such as general economic performance.
All the mainstream aggregators acknowledge that it’s *possible* that there is systematic bias in the state level programming, for example Nate Silver states that it’s exactly this possibility that creates the remaining probability of a Romney EC victory.
___________
The Pundoids across the political spectrum hate the aggregators, because the former are in the business of selling their subjective opinions, and if the aggregators continue to be as accurate as they have been in the last few electrons (which is much more accurate that the average pundit), the pundits will be out of a job (or at least potentially less well paid to do it).
Not going to agree with you there. Aggregation does nothing to make polling results more accurate, all it does is allow the "aggregator" to stake out a middle-of-the-road claim that will of course place them closer to the end result than roughly half of the individual pollsters, whom the aggregator will use highlight his "success" (along with a wide enough MOE to account for reality to be different than anyone's guesses).
It is quite true that it's GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) as well -- and the input polls are garbage, even more so than usual.
San Wang’s final prediction:
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/
And... before you shoot the piano player... remember that the aggregators are the *messengers*, the state-level polling writes the message.
BARF ALERT
Aggregation (meta-analysis) substantially improves the "accuracy" (for example, margin-of-error & confidence level) of the analysis of the *combined* data-sets.
That's right, and if there aren't just as many, or more TEA Party rallies if Romney is elected, then it all has been for naught.
I agree but you may get flamed for stating it. The Tea Party is seen as an equal enemy as the Democrats to the GOP.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.