Posted on 03/16/2016 10:02:32 AM PDT by Elderberry
The Trump phenomenon has built-in self-destruction mechanisms that will become increasingly apparent now that the field of real candidates is reduced to two Republicans and (let’s face facts) one Democrat.
Sanders will continue to cloud the issue but he can’t get enough delegates to knock Clinton out.
So most people are going to realize this during April and May, and start visualizing the inevitable — Trump or Cruz vs Hillary.
And as execrable a person and candidate as Mrs Clinton happens to be (to any sane onlooker), a realist will quickly note that she goes into the battle with many women voters and almost all minority voters in her pocket, and she has ways of keeping them there just by playing the victim card (and she is the ultimate victim too, this actually helps her with some demographics).
Now Trump has a huge majority of older white males in his pocket and he isn’t going to lose any of them. But unless I am counting wrong at the mall, older white males are about 20 to 25 per cent of the voting public. They might be 30 to 40 per cent of the GOP. How can you win states in the electoral college with that sort of limited base? Sure he’s drawing more voters out to primaries. But fewer than 5% of all voters go out to primaries at the best of times.
As for Ted Cruz, he is just weak across the board against any Democrat. His only way of beating Hillary Clinton is a persistent and well-organized battle of attrition, by identifying ten or fifteen issues that will work in specific states or regions and go after her less committed voters, while at the same time trying to create additional enthusiasm on his own side (something Romney failed to do so he lost).
Just as a betting proposition and not a matter of personal voting interest (and in any case, I am a non-participant) I would say that Trump has a 30% chance of winning the general election and Cruz about 29.9%, even Kasich probably has a better chance than either of them.
Trump could run those numbers much higher if he would stop trying to be the Putin of America and start thinking in terms of what undecided voters want from him. If Americans think I am blowing smoke here, we just had the exact same set of dynamics play out in Canada. Our Conservative Party decided to play to the lowest common denominator. They introduced several policies into the 2015 election campaign that they could very easily have avoided. They made a huge deal about women wearing the ni’qab and suggested a hot line for people to phone in to report “barbaric cultural practices.” (this in the land of hockey and seal hunts)
Now of course those ideas energized the angry old codger base of the party as it was intended to do. But it convinced almost every swing voter under 50 to abandon the once-popular Sanders-like NDP for the Hillary-like Liberals and their magic unicorn brand of politics.
In other words, the tough love politics ended up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. All Harper needed to do to get re-elected was to stress his sound economic credentials and keep hinting in gentle terms that Justin Trudeau, while a very fine young fellow, needed another decade or two of life experience. But no, they had to go for the jugular in almost exactly the same way as Trump, and while it was wildly popular in certain circles, it alienated many voters and this was evident on both sides — the tiny Libertarian Party of Canada also gained considerably from turned-off Tories who were nervous about all the police state overtones of security legislation. Trump may bring in this liability too. Wait until he starts talking about managing the internet and emergency powers etc. The libertarian portion of the loose coalition that may presently support him will desert and either vote third party or stay home.
Now you know. You need to take a sober second look and force Trump to restructure for victory, or else go with Cruz and at least stay on the high road.
My point is that if half of the republicans in Texas liked Cruz, he would have won with 50%. He didn’t. 26.7% voted for a New Yorker over him. Who saw that coming? I know people who voted for him in 2012 and won’t now. That is anecdotal. Perhaps we are the only people in the entire state that think that way but since he so did poorly, I suspect we are not. I hope Calgary Ted doesn’t worry about it though and just thinks 2018 is in the bag.
Canadians laugh when they read about “Calgary Ted” because Calgary is considered to be the most American place in Canada. Honestly, we should trade Alberta for Minnesota, I think 99% of the people in both jurisdictions would be happy about it.
You don’t like Cruz. I get that. But many folks “like” multiple candidates, but they can, of course, only vote for one. It’s wrong to assume that all TX Trump voters share your disdain for Cruz. It’s very possible that many of them are just fine with having Cruz as a Senator, but for various reasons prefer Trump for President. That’s not a crime. In any case, your fantasy of knocking Cruz out of the Senate in 2018 is delusional.
Whatever. I do not like Bushes or any of thier surrogates like Calgary Ted. I do not like liars like Calgary Ted. I do not like mealy mouthed politicians who blame the actions of radicals on their opponents for political points like Calgary Ted does. I also do not like Canadian citizens running for Senate from Texas without telling me they are still Canadian citizens like Calgary Ted did. I guess that makes me a regular lib because you said so.
A lot of folks said that about Baraq in 2012, but here we are slugging it out....
I do not think that all Texans share my disdain but it has been demonstrated that when given a choice only 43.8% voted for him. I simply sated that if I were Calgary Ted and got less than 50% in a statewide election, I would worry about getting reelected in 2018 before I worried about 2020. I hope he does not worry about it and keeps unmasking himself as he has been doing these past few weeks. I called a guy who I thought was a hardcore Cruz supporter on Monday to talk about getting together when I get home and he came out and told me he wishes he had voted for Trump. Anecdotal? Sure it is but it is there. Will people like him vote Cruz in 2018? I don’t know. The elections in 2018 may not be boring in Texas.
I agree with you. My son’s finance is from Calgary. She has relatives who live in Texas and I have met. They are good people.
Trump will crush it in NY. Guaranteed.
Goldman Sachs, Canadian, stole Iowa, Ted Mean, Goldman Sachs, Sue over being Canadian, all polls anti-Trump unless he leads them, Goldman Sachs, Canadian, expand Ethanol subsidies, Mean Ted, Carson is a pathological liar, like a pedophile, like a violent criminal, Goldman Sachs, Universal Health care for everyone, Mean Ted, Jimmy Carter endorses Me, Affirmative Action is good, Goldman Sachs, Mean Ted, McConnell’s a good man, Canadian, Planned Parenthood does great things, Goldman Sachs, I agree with Bernie on big bad drug companies, I like Chuck Schumer, Mean Ted, Goldman Sachs, Canadian.
Time to move on bro. You don’t like Conservatives. We got it.
Anyone in the GOP planning now for 2020 have to be planning for the Republicans to lose this election. Reminds me of Romney in 2008 using his surrogates to undermine Sarah Palin during the campaign in order for McCain to lose allowing for his 2012 entry. Remember Steve Schmidt and Nichole Wallace?
Who in the hell do you think you are? Who appointed you to be the judge of people’s political purity? I simply do not like lying Canadian jerks who have been inside the highest levels of the GOP establishment for 20 years and now pretend to be outsiders. He and his GS, CFR wife both. Read their resumes. You are not much of a judge of anything if you are pinning liking a Bush style globalist to somebody’s conservatism. You obviously do not know Jack Squat about me but you are not about to let that stop you from using your azz for a brain.
Move along. Next time do some homework before you vote for a non US citizen.
I do not want to know you either. I did not vote for the non NBC Canadian candidate this year, you apparently did. I wish I had done my homework on Calgary Ted in 2012. I have done my homework now and did not make the same mistake this year and will not in 2018.
Like I said, he'll get the nod it seems anyway. Doesn't mean I have to stop thinking for myself before that happens.
I do think for myself. That is why I actually researched Calgary Ted this time and found what I found. I actually gave the guy some money before I did, which is another lesson relearned.
Good for you then. Maybe do the same on Trump - just google Trump pre-June 2015. It will amaze you.
Good luck to you.
Good for you then. Maybe do the same on Trump - just google Trump pre-June 2015. It will amaze you.
Good luck to you.
I am good. I have read some of his books.
Nice one.
Too bad none of the books address his crony capitalism. Maybe a topic for 2017.
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