Enthusiasm = turnout. That’s why I’m convinced that Trump is using his massive rallies to keep the emotion high. Most polls today are assuming anything from D+4 to D+10 turnout. If the turnout is flat or maybe R+2 like some think, then the polls look dramatically different and Trump would have a lead around +5, even in the far left CNN or Reuters polls.
I think the Trump brain-trust rightly sees that their edge is in voter enthusiasm. They turn that enthusiasm into a modest turnout difference, they win with plenty of room to spare.
“Enthusiasm = turnout. That’s why I’m convinced that Trump is using his massive rallies to keep the emotion high. Most polls today are assuming anything from D+4 to D+10 turnout. If the turnout is flat or maybe R+2 like some think, then the polls look dramatically different and Trump would have a lead around +5, even in the far left CNN or Reuters polls.
I think the Trump brain-trust rightly sees that their edge is in voter enthusiasm. They turn that enthusiasm into a modest turnout difference, they win with plenty of room to spare.”
The enthusiasm gap is consistently at or above 11 points in Trump’s favor.
It will be R +2.
There’s zero enthusiasm for Hillary - in the CNN poll, bottom line is just 60% of Democrats intend to vote.
That spells big trouble and her + 5 lead in that poll is based on the assumption she’ll get a voter turnout like Obama got in 2012.
Its an untested assumption. If her voters don’t show up, kiss good-bye to her CNN poll lead.
Trump is certainly over with 50% with a 53-54% share of the popular vote.
We’ll see in November if that’s correct.