Trump Era July NICS Continues Trend of 2018 as Second Highest Year on Record

Gun Watch ^ | 11 August, 2018 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The National Instant background Check System, NICS continues to record near record numbers for July of 2018. During the 2016 election cycle, the fear of a Hillary Clinton presidency pushed gun sales and, correspondingly, NICS background checks to an all time record high.

Many people thought the sales and NICS checks would tumble once President Trump was elected. But sales and NICS only fell back a small amount. 2017 was the second highest year on record for NICS checks.

Over half way through 2018, the 2018 NICS checks are trending higher than those in 2017. The July, 2018 NICS checks were 1,835,318. In 2017, at the end of July, the NICS checks to date were 14,343,658. In 2018, at the end of July, the NICS checks were 15,128,636.

In the all time record set in 2016, the NICS checks at the end of July were 16,026,660.  The 2018 number is 94% of record 2016 number, and the second highest for the period.

These near record NICS checks do not necessarily reflect near record gun sales.

More and more of NICS checks are being used for carry permits and carry permit renewals.  The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) has been able to subtract out checks done for carry permits and carry permit re-checks. Using that information, checks done for firearm sales are down 9.5% from the 2017 figures.

The NSSF adjusted chart shows adjusted NICS checks for July close to the 2012 - 2014 levels.

The NICS checks have historically correlated one NICS check for about .6 firearms added to the private stock in the United States. NICS checks are done for sales of used firearms. One NICS check can be done for multiple firearms. In addition, in half the states, once a person receives a carry permit, the permit can serve in lieu of another NICS check for five years.

The number of carry permit holders in the United States is currently over 16 million people. This can be seen in the rising number of permit checks and permit re-checks done on the NICS system. But many of those permit holders do not have to use the NICS system for more gun purchases.

If the .6 number holds, the number of guns added to the private stock in July will be about 1.1 million. That would bring the total private stock to about 427 million firearms.  If the trend continues, there will be about 432 million firearms in the United States private stock by the end of the year.


©2018 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

[marktwain]

NICS background checks are high, gun sales down a little.

[Pollster1]

Many people thought the sales and NICS checks would tumble once President Trump was elected.

I thought so too until the thug class rejected the results of the election and pushed for impeachment without regard to any charges.

People don't prepare for the future well, only for immediate needs. The rise of socialism as a mainstream position has convinced many decent people that more firearms are an immediate need.

[wita]

Based on what I see in that Pic, there isn’t an adult anywhere in sight. Certainly anyone with brains enough to consider being a socialist. They are all being supported by adults (maybe) and still hopefully learning what life is all about. Once they reach voting age, have a job, pay taxes, then we might be able to determine where they are on the political scale.

For now someone is playing them like trained seals.

[Pollster1]

For now someone is playing them like trained seals.

Agreed. It looks like the Democratic Socialists of America (funded by Russia) are getting these babies to carry pre-printed signs and recite memorized lines. More Russian Collusion?

[Bryanw92]

I wonder how body armor sales to civilians are doing? The Progs want a war. I hope our side shows up with more than a truckload of guns for each person.

[normbal]

“Truckload of guns for each person.”

Not the way this works. For each person there should be ONE well-maintainted, tested, reliable service rifle like the venerable easily obtained, light, accurate out to 700 yards - ask me how I know - AR15 carbine and at least 300 rounds of ammunition - not hard to do with the right LBE and something like TACO mag pouches.

For backup, a pistol. About 100 rounds.

Then, of course, each squad should have one Minimi or other such SAW to lay down suppressing fire enfilade, maybe one overwatch guy with a suppressed bolt gun, but the basic combat loadout doctrine is pretty much tried and true, cast in stone. But the elite warriors like SEALs or SF up the load a bit depending on local theater of operations and experience.

This ALWAYS bothered me in the first Matrix movie when Neo said they needed guns, lots of guns. Deadpool did the same thing. I think of it as Hollyweird making fun of gun owners and exercising their ignorance borne of arrogance, hatred, scorn and contempt for anyone who doesn’t worship the almighty state by disarming and presenting him/herself as potential sacrifice by anyone stronger.

On the other hand, with a little forethought, maybe it’s better that Hollyweird is teaching people the WRONG thing about firearms, PDWs, deployments. ANTIFA seems to be trying to figure out the RIGHT way, and are holding training sessions ala “Viper Militia” of bygone eras. No FBI infiltrators though - hell, I think many of the ANTIFA/BLM scum ARE FBI, CIA or other deep-state operatives.

When the progs get their civil war, as was once said about why the third reich didn’t invade Switzerland, we legitimately regulated militia (armed citizenry, 15 to 45 - or so) will take out our favorite PDWs, fire one shot each and go home.

[I only ever did basic combat training, was NCOIC of a small field unit and the “arms guy” for that unit, then officer’s basic, and advanced course much later, was a medic/medical corp, but I’ve since studied a bit on my own. Please correct/direct me to source material if you feel I’m wrong]

[Bryanw92]

“Truckload of guns for each person.”

>>Not the way this works. For each person there should be ONE well-maintainted, tested, reliable service rifle like the venerable easily obtained, light, accurate out to 700 yards - ask me how I know - AR15 carbine and at least 300 rounds of ammunition - not hard to do with the right LBE and something like TACO mag pouches.

I don’t think you understood my post. I was speaking about all the people buying up guns, as if their 6th AR was going to be the thing that makes the war winnable or even preventable.

Just about every person I know owns multiple AR-15s. Very few of them own any load-bearing gear, mag pouches, body armor, etc. I tell them to stop buying guns and to start buying other gear, to stop accumulating ammo and to start using it for practice.

I was not advocating the truckload of guns per man. I was ridiculing it.

Note: I own one AR15, a complete lower parts kit, and a spare upper. I do own way too many pistols, but at least they are all different.

[Lurker]

“I wonder how body armor sales to civilians are doing?”

Just fine here. Thanks for asking.

Best,

L

[Lurker]

“Very few of them own any load-bearing gear, mag pouches, body armor, etc. I tell them to stop buying guns and to start buying other gear, to stop accumulating ammo and to start using it for practice.”

Wise words.

L

[Bryanw92]

>>Just fine here. Thanks for asking.

Cool! When the Progs make their moves, we want to not only be the guys with the guns, but the ones who know how to use their sights AND have the body armor!

Every FReeper should skip their next gun purchase to get some armor and a helmet.

[Drew68]

The rise of socialism as a mainstream position has convinced many decent people that more firearms are an immediate need.

It isn't just "decent" people buying firearms.

If Obama's presidency and the fear of a Hillary administration fueled gun sales among conservatives, Trump's victory is fueling gun sales with leftists.

If you think only conservatives are arming up, think again.

[Drew68]

When the Progs make their moves, we want to not only be the guys with the guns, but the ones who know how to use their sights AND have the body armor!

Knowing how to use a firearm means nothing without the will to use it and right now the only side I see willing to commit violence is their's.

[SolidRedState]

“I was not advocating the truckload of guns per man. I was ridiculing it.”

You are correct, gear and practice are essential.

But it is also necessary to have firearms to give to those willing participants to assist who do not have said weapons. You can only fire one rifle at a time (unless: RAMBO). But you have to be able to provide for 2, 3 or 4 friendlies who may, through their own lack of foresight or through circumstances out of their control, not have the boom stick of their own.

[Lurker]

“AND have the body armor!”

Bulletproofme.com has quality products, fair prices, and excellent service. We have done business with them and recommend them without hesitation. Two very satisfied customers in this house.

511 makes an excellent LBE and Condor makes accessories that are high quality and an excellent fit.

Don’t forget a well stocked IFAK and the training to use it.

L

[Bryanw92]

>>Knowing how to use a firearm means nothing without the will to use it and right now the only side I see willing to commit violence is their’s.

Knowing when to use it is important too. You see them being willing to to to violence because they believe that their way of life is being threatened. (That way of life being sitting on their asses, collecting money stolen from taxpayers.)

Our way of life is not existentially threatened yet. Yet. But, it is almost there. We can’t be at the point where we are ready to proactively commit violence on them unless we are ready to use it on the cops who will defend them. Civil War is a nasty thing. It is not the 1861-1865 War between two nations occupying different spaces, but it is Kosovo.

Be thankful that our side does not feel threatened enough to resort to violence, but know that when it comes, we will be brutally effective. Idiots break windows to protect their “way of life”. Patriots make exit wounds to protect theirs.

[Bryanw92]

>>But it is also necessary to have firearms to give to those willing participants to assist who do not have said weapons. You can only fire one rifle at a time (unless: RAMBO). But you have to be able to provide for 2, 3 or 4 friendlies who may, through their own lack of foresight or through circumstances out of their control, not have the boom stick of their own.

At this point in time, I do not trust those people at my back with a loaded gun. They have failed at their basic duty as a citizen and a man if they did not buy a gun during Obama or after seeing Antifa in action.

[SolidRedState]

you would be surprised to see how fast a person’s attitude changes when reality bites them in the ass.

[Bryanw92]

>>you would be surprised to see how fast a person’s attitude changes when reality bites them in the ass.

No, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. But, here’s one observation: they do not become better and more cooperative citizens. If you arm the person who thought you were an ignorant racist nazi last year, then you probably just armed an enemy when the initial crisis passes.

Yes, there are no natural enemies during a forest fire. But then it is over, the carnivores are hungrier than ever.

Just as Noah slammed the door on his neighbors, I will not arm the morally weak man who did not see this coming until he has armed himself with whatever he can find and fights beside me for a while.

[normbal]

I think I got it, more or less, just the line set me off a bit.

I too have more guns than I can take to the range in one trip (OPSEC prevents me from revealing too much), but not as many as I want.

Maybe I’m not fully caffeinated yet this AM (worked LATE last night) so, sorry if I missed the subtlety.

NB

[Bryanw92]

>>I too have more guns than I can take to the range in one trip, but not as many as I want.

It isn’t about the number of guns you have or want. It is about the other gear you bought to go with them.

Hint: going to war with pockets stuffed with magazines, your dual cup holder hard hat for football games, and your daughter’s Hello Kitty backpack is not adequate preparation no matter how many guns you have. ;-)