Oh, and don't go to the grocery store.
Just for fun. Let’s consider how the Media and Dems (redundant, I know) would behave if the numbers were the other way.
If there were more deaths than predicted the dinks would be in a foaming at the mouth frenzy.
bmk
Is she related to Hans?
If all these super dire predictions are seriously wrong there will be a lot of anger and long memories.
Brix.
How come no scale on the vertical axis?
But, is it ‘granular’?
She’s a little old to do much modeling.
Apparently it too much to ask how many covad deaths happened to healthy normal Americans who weren’t already sick with something.
The rest of the country hasn’t caught up to NY yet, so the model is lagging for the country as a whole. But remember that the center line is an estimate and it helps to pay attention to the upper and lower estimate boundaries. Also we are trying to predict along an exponential curve, so a lag of 1 or 2 days can have a huge effect on the actual number. It seems to be spot-on for Louisiana. We are peaking out close to the predicted number of deaths, and past the critical resource demand by several days.
Something left out of modelling, millions of Christians fasting and praying. May all glory go to God.
As I write this, the Dow is up about 1000 points. This cannot be tolerated. Just wait until later today when Fauci and Birx get to the microphone. They will say what they need to say to get that number nosediving into the red. They must enjoy that type of power.
That’s not Dr. Birx’s model.
Italy appears to have peaked 10 days ago @ 919; this would then suggest the US peaked 2 days ago @ 1,352. If we set a goal of 0+- by 8/1, then we would experience a daily decrease by -5.3%. This is what it looks like graphically:
Note the sharp run up to the peak is due to NY, which as of 4/5 represents approx 44% of all USA CV deaths.
Computer models for something so variable are garbage.
Like trying to predict the global temperature.
Bookmarked!
Goodness?!?