Posted on 04/12/2020 8:16:11 PM PDT by GuavaCheesePuff
A week ago, I posted Early Observations on the Pandemic and Population Density, which suggested that the more worrying experience with the COVID-19 virus in the New York City metropolitan area could result from more intense person-to-person contacts:
…the risk of infection is a function of being close to people who are infected.The most fundamental issue is thus, how close people are to one-another in their daily lives. The risk of infection can be expected to be higher where there are very high densities whether in residences, transport or employment locations.
Jason Fox of Bloomberg, countered that weighted “metropolitan area” densities did not support my observations. It is true that the weighted metropolitan density of New York is only a bit more than double that of San Francisco and Los Angeles. He could have made his point even stronger using US Census Bureau urban area densities showing Los Angeles to be the densest, (2,700 per square kilometer or 7,000 per square mile, San Francisco second (2,400/6,300) and San Jose to be denser than the New York urban area (2,100/5,300). However this was not the subject of Preliminary Observations, which dealt with density at the personal level.
(Excerpt) Read more at newgeography.com ...
Yes! Someone’s been looking at my husband’s research. He found 60% cases/ deaths in greater NYC; 2.5% cases/ deaths in LA County. Population density greater NYC 60,000 per square mile. Population density LA County 2,000 per square mile.
I am not sure - is it the density or is that herd immunity is already partially in California and that is why it has less than California.
No wonder so many people hurled when hearing this.
https://www.metrolyrics.com/people-lyrics-barbra-streisand.html
Barbra Streisand - People Lyrics
We travel single-oh
Maybe we’re lucky, but I don’t know
With them,
Just let one kid fall down
And seven mothers faint.
I guess we’re both happy, but maybe
We ain’t.
People
people who need people
Are the luckiest people in the world,
We’re children, needing other children
And yet letting our grown-up pride
Hide all the need inside,
Acting more like children
Than children.
Lovers are very special people,
They’re the luckiest people
In the world.
With one person, one very special person
A feeling deep in your soul
Says you were half,
Now you’re whole.
No more hunger and thirst
But first be a person
Who needs people.
People who need people
Are the luckiest people
In the world!
Holy corona! That`s 464 people per square foot! Them`s peoples is stacked up like hot pancakes waiting for thems flies! Holy corona! Is the math correct? i dunno....
The last measured population density for Santa Clara County, CA was 1,490 in 2018
We were suppose to see people dropping dead left and right by now
“Silicon Valley could face 2,000 to 16,000 coronavirus-related deaths, new estimates show”
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-26/coronavirus-deaths-silicon-valley-santa-clara-county-pandemic-projection
where “we do something, but [it’s] not well complied with” — there could still be a far worse death toll than the best-case scenario, with nearly 8,000 dead in Santa Clara County.
****I’d say your projections are taking their time to appear. As of today, nearly the middle of April, we have lost 54 souls to CCP-19 but, that number is likely lower because the givernment has decided everyone who dies do so with CCP-19 being the primary cause.
We have never changed the definition of death for any other virus
Why now?
Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause
I have wondered if the country could have developed herd immunity having everyone wear masks. Doing so would not protect entirely, but it would reduce the viral load every one exhaled and inhaled. Masks hopefully help in building immunity without an overwhelming exposure to a huge viral load.
Those with medical issues and the elderly could still be quarantined, and making special programs to make isolation more tolerable.
Can anyone explain why Fauci and the rest of the experts has not discussed this?
I wish I could get the deaths/million population figures for the major cities. Perhaps it would discourage people from working and living in them. Perhaps efficiency made it efficient for the virus to multiply.
These analysis are all out the window if somebodies have / are purposefully spreading the virus... the data conclusions will mean nothing if that is the case
Population density plus the fact that in New York a lot more people take crowded public transportation, and in L.A., most people drive their own cars.
Let’s do some quick back of the envelope here.
Let’s say a mile is 5,000 feet, so a square mile is 25,000,000 square feet.
Now assume 1,000 people per square foot — that would be 25 billion people per square mile. Ok, you said 400 per square foot, so cut the 25 billion in half — that’s still 12 billion per square mile.
With air travel so restricted these days, I just don’t see how you are going to get the whole world’s population into one square mile.
I could be wrong...
464 square feet per person.
1 peraon per 464 sqft.
I have been saying the same thing for weeks. I cannot imagine a more efficient means of infecting as many people as possible in the shortest time possible than by packing half of your population into subway cars a couple times per day.
There is not much NYC can do about the population density on workdays. Subways, Taxis, Grand Central Station, crowded elevators and crowded offices is what they have to work with. They are stuck.
They can stay home or go to work. If they go back to work, and of course they must, the death toll will accelerate again.
the author is trying to distinguish metropolitan area vs. urban area and he makes the point.
per wiki and census bureau estimates
The city of NY proper has approx. 8.5 million distributed over about 302.64 square miles
The city of LA proper has approx. 3.9 million distributed over about 468.67 square miles
Deaths per million are currently 478 in New York state. Let’s say they are 1000 per million in NYC and maybe double that by the time this ends. At that rate, national deaths could have been about 650,000, which can be rounded down to 500,000. Something like that is a proper number with no action.
Perhaps your husband will also be interested in my theory that it’s not only popluation density, but also the use of mass transit. LA and most of the west coast travels by car, whereas the eastern seaboard and European cities are much more likely to use subways, trains, and buses. A closed box with lots of people crammed close together with limited air circulation and many commonly-touched surfaces make mass transportation an almost perfect virus incubator.
“...than by packing half of your population into subway cars a couple times per day.”
And the mass transit is probably used more by minorities which would account for their higher percentages of CV.
On the plus side, I did read awhile ago where NYC was going to start cleaning the cars and lobbies more. They were trying to get to once every three days!
Cuomo, deblasio and the NYC health commissioner where telling NY’ers early on, not to worry its a typical flu season, resume your normal activities, ride the trains and buses, meet with friends, go to shows, even Pelousy said visit the Chinese new year festival in lower Manhattan. This in it self made the death toll and infection rat skyrocket and made NY the epicenter
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