Looks like a good analysis. Well done!
Actually most of the gainers and the reductions, either way, are in a range of 0% to 10% and a few reductions are greater than more than a 10% reduction.
But the real outliers in my opinion are Minnesota, DC, Massachusetts, NY, NJ and New York City, which far exceeded the others, percentage wise in either direction.
When you compare the totals from all the states, the number of total deaths for 2020 is not greater than the total deaths for 2019 plus the number of reported Wuhan Virus deaths. The 2020 total is less than one would expect with all the 2020 “additional” Wuhan Virus deaths. Therefor, clearly and for reasons that could be looked into, many kinds of other deaths for 2019 must have fewer of them reported for 2020.
What about heart attacks, liver failures and other chronic things as cause of deaths, but not reported as cause of death just because the patient (or the body) tested positive for the Wuhan Virus, whether suffering due it or not at the time of death. But, even that being the case in some instances, there are not enough additional 2020 deaths, if we are to assume the Wuhan Virus deaths are all “additional” deaths that would not have otherwise occurred, statistically.
Maybe there is also just far too much inconsistency in reporting deaths.
I don’t see a graph.
Not surprised to see that my state, NM, has fewer deaths than last spring and also not surprised that now she’s talking about not opening up the rest of the state until early in June.
Also, no surprise that, that’s what you get with a dim governor.
Niel Ferguson actually has a HISTORY of sky high death estimates.
His projections led to millions of British livestock killed due to hoof and mouth disease projections. And it turned out inspectors were spreading it through unsterilized shoes.
He predicted up to fifty thousand dead from mad cow disease.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2002/jan/09/research.highereducation
He predicted up to 200 million dead from bird flu. Note that’s worse than the Wuhan virus and they still didn’t lock everything down.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
The states with the highest increase in year-over-year deaths also have the highest population densities, the largest mass transit systems, and the largest number of people over the age of 65.