least strategically important area
Seriously? Izyum is now in peril.
Posted on 09/10/2022 5:40:29 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111
Kyiv officials announced late last month that Ukraine has kicked off a long-awaited offensive in the Kherson region. Ukrainian units attempted to break through Russia’s first line of defense across several points along the contested Mykolaiv-Kherson border. It was reported last week that Ukrainian forces penetrated Russian defenses in the Andriivka district, establishing a bridgehead in the Sukhyi Stavok-Kostromka area. Russian military observers assessed in the following days that Ukrainian troops were pushed out of Kostromka and Sukhyi Stavok was under heavy Russian shelling, adding that the brunt of the fighting has shifted to neighboring Belogorka. Ukrainian troops published video footage earlier this week suggesting that they have taken Vysokopole in the Kryvyi Rih region, with Russian sources claiming that positional battles are being waged just south of the settlement. It remains unclear if reported offensives further down the Mykolaiv-Kherson line, in the Posad-Pokrovske and Novohryhorivka areas, have yielded substantial gains for the Ukrainian side.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalinterest.org ...
They took some territory in the Northeast in the least strategically important area of Harkov oblast, where the defenders were mostly the Russian national guard and Donetsk militia who opted to withdraw and not to fight ten times the number of enemies.
Everywhere else they gained nothing but suffered tremendous losses.
"I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly."
The Ukraine propaganda offensive has been impressive, though!
;-)
least strategically important area
Seriously? Izyum is now in peril.
[Another POV:]
Armchair Warlord:
This latest Ukrainian offensive north of Izyum is their Battle of the Bulge - a desperate lunge with their last combat-capable units that will, in the end, result in little more than the destruction of those units and the substantial weakening of their operational situation.
[thread at link]
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1568430470282760193
I think Uzyum is already evacuated.
And another POV:
Ukraine Counterattacks!
Please Remain Calm
> by Big Serge / Sep 9
[Analysis of Ukraine’s “Battle of the Bulge.”]
[Excerpt] It is obvious why Ukraine would want to dislodge Russia from Izyum. This would simplify and secure lines of communication to Slovyansk and greatly complicate the Russian push in the Donbas by freeing Ukraine’s northern flank. To achieve this, they are attempting a thrust toward Kupyansk, with the aim of cutting the line connecting Izyum to Belgorod in the north. This operation, I believe, is doomed to spectacular failure.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks
and a map of the salient.
I think Uzyum is already evacuated. How would it end I don’t know. If it is not political game like it was in Kiev and there is going to be another cauldron then the Ukies are mostly done. They invested so much into this offensive that they barely have anything left.
How long until they run out of steam>? Do they have the manpower to push out the invaders and will the invaders push back? Big questions. Hitler did a lot with the Battle of the Bulge—but in the end it just chewed up his last reserves and caused the war to be shorter. Russia needs to pull out or doubled own. Go full war and do a general national mobilization. Maybe declare war on Ukraine and line up her allies—set up a draft and put nation on a war footing. One or the Other— Fish or cut bait.
This thrust is clearly the major gambit for September going into the winter.
It’s mostly “new” NATO armor in this thrust, and NATO is about tapped out and can’t send much more no matter what it wishes.
With European industry shutting down this winter as natural gas is diverted to heating homes as a priority, it’s hard to see them suddenly ramping up arms production to send to Ukraine.
Moon of Alabama blog Sep 7:
Ukraine Loses Soldiers - Europe Its Economies - All For No Gain
Moon of Alabama Sep 10:
Ukraine - Battle Of The Izium Bulge?
Here is the latest from the Izium front where a Ukrainian counterattack made a deep push into Russian held lines.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/ukraine-battle-of-the-izium-bulge.html#more
In certain sense it is a tactical success but that until you see the whole picture. A six-axis advance with all but one forces annihilated is barely a victory, especially given the evacuation of the enemy on one axis, meaning no real damage was inflicted. The biggest casualty for the Russians are hearts and minds. Expect massacre of “collaborators” by the Ukies.
—> Russia needs to pull out or doubled own. Go full war and do a general national mobilization. Maybe declare war on Ukraine and line up her allies—set up a draft and put nation on a war footing.
My 2 cents
I think Russia has pursued a low intensity conflict to make it difficult for NATO to justify direct action.
Biden funded the Russian war with Ukraine by shutting down American energy and signing the European Nord Stream Pipeline over to Putin. Putin has all the money he needs to fight this ridiculous war. Thanks Joe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3zNxBahukU
Kharkov Offensive 2.0: Winning Headlines Today, Hastening Defeat for Tomorrow
I agree with this analyst and with Scott Ritter that this decision on Ukraine’s part while temporarily tactically successful has sown the seeds of ultimate strategic failure.
For most of the last six months Ukraine has struggled to defend at the front line. They have had to do so with inferior weaponry and substantially less ammunition which has resulted in massive disparity of casualty ratios. In other words most of Ukraine’s highly trained military has been eliminated and they had to resort to using untrained, older and unwilling territorial defense forces usually literally captured on the street and conscripted.
This has led to very poor results and concern on the part of their NATO partners that there was no way for Ukraine to win.
So after promising a “counter offensive for months that never came” they worked with Mi6 for the last 3 months on this grand, all encompassing “counter offensive.” Troops were trained in NATO countries. Some sources, including a Ukrainian Telegram Channel claimed that approximately 40,000 troops were going to be involved in a 5 part effort.
The first attempt at Kherson turned out to be a disaster. They captured very minimal territory and quickly lost it all back. But, the real disaster was they incurred 6,000 KILLED IN COMBAT and many thousands more wounded which are now positioned all over the nation’s hospitals because the number was so huge it could not be accommodated anywhere near the conflict. Wounded were even taken to Moldova and Poland.
What made this an enormous blunder was that those 6 brigades of well trained and equipped soldiers are gone and all they have left is 4 brigades who are currently in the middle of their training in Britain, Poland and Czech Republic.
Then they moved into Kharkov and did the same thing only this time managing to take much more territory, but still experience such huge losses that they had a convoy of ambulances in Kiev to find available hospitals.
Russia has withdrawn forces everywhere these new large brigades attacked. The Ukrainian Kharkov forces are now stretched out and like what happened in Kherson and also in Kharkov several months ago Russia will come in with their artillery and aviation and eliminate these forces, too.
From: https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1568438928516022279
(none of this is my own thoughts, just this guy Secret Squirrel on Twiter)
UKR army has built at least 3 battle groups. each about the size of a US division (3-4 brigades with attached elements working together). The VAST majority of the vehicles are wheeled vehicles. this seems to be built like the US 9th infantry div (1985-91) truly motorized divisions. the makeup is infantry transports (HMMWVs, pick ups), scout. dune buggies FASTVs, and backed up by MRAPS, BTRs... with tanks attached. this allows the UKR forces to move fast hit hard and hold with dismounted ATGMs. the Russian army with “death before dismount mentality has no way to counter this. as they are sending reinforcements into the battle they are hitting ambushes and counter attacks prior to deploying.
I’m betting that the UKR army has made 3 battle groups. one that hit Kherson, one that hit the north, and one that has not been played yet. If you are a battletracker (I am) you count vehicles by TO&E (donated, sold vehicles) and look for them in combat as BDA. So far many of some types of vehicles donated HAVE NOT shown up on the battlefield, yet.
If my numbers are right only about 1/2 of the new “secret” army has been used. this means another strike is coming....soon... and just like the north strike this will be too fast for the RU forces to counter.
In addition MANY more vehicles are being given to the ukr forces right now. and the troops that were holding the line are being recovered, rested, and rearmed... in 14-30 days the ukr army will have 2-3 more battle groups (divisions) that can be thrown into the fight.
i will say this. the ukr army has 4 options to strike the next blow, any of the 4 could spell the end of the russian army in that FRONT. this would enable the ukr army to swing its remaining army to the opposite front crushing the surviving ru forces
Never heard of death before dismount mentality. The post sounds like a bunch of baloney.
Watching the Russian trolls spin this makes me smile.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.