Posted on 04/05/2023 3:52:45 AM PDT by Peter ODonnell
The following states are likely to see widespread severe thunderstorms with a risk of damaging tornadoes -- s/cMI, se WI, OH, IN, IL, KY, TN, AR, eTX, nLA, nMS, nwAL
The national weather service has issued an "enhanced" severe storm risk for this general area. I would not be surprised if this is upgraded later today. The dynamics of the system are impressive and lines of thunderstorms have formed overnight, ready to increase in strength with the approach of daytime heating. But it's already 75 to 80 F at 0500h CDT in parts of eastern MO and southern IL. I think there will be a number of parallel tornadic supercells moving northeast through IL and IN this morning, back-building to KY and then TN by afternoon. Later on these will arrive in MI and OH, also southwestern Ontario. Strong but possibly non-severe storms may reach wPA, w NY, WV and parts of GA and Carolinas by tonight.
The risk is just about finished in Iowa and western Missouri, and most of Kansas and Oklahoma, although a few cells are forming near the OK-AR border now.
Stay safe and let folks know what you're seeing. To give a rough estimate of timing, would say 0900h in s IL to around 1200h in west-central IN to around 1500h in nw OH and se MI, a bit later further east and south, as the front will likely "back build" new cells in areas that don't start out with a lot of action at first.
Further east, a very warm day for time of year, the storms may arrive there on Thursday in somewhat reduced form.
It was near 90F yesterday in the warm sector of this weather system, in several places in KS and even s.e. Nebraska, but now it's in the 20s and 30s in those regions, giving you an idea of the contrasts and between the two air masses there is a raging jet stream core. There is approximately 2' of snow on the ground in parts of SD and MN after a winter of numerous snowstorms, the cold air is being chilled by having to cross that snow covered terrain. A snowstorm from this low is now moving across Lake Superior into northern Ontario and extreme northern MN, some freezing rain near Lake Superior ahead of the warm fronts.
I’ll be watching this develop.
I once traveled through the Ohio valley during one of these severe rain events.
It was like driving through a car wash. Could not see a thing. I could see why it’s a valley- it must be washing away little by little
There is a tornado warning in DeKalb IL until 6:150- 6 minutes from now. So far, not even rain.
Just checked the radar. It's coming and it looks ugly, so be safe.
Missing out on a potential tornado is a good thing. They can be pretty hit or miss over warned areas, the procedure is usually to warn entire counties and the average supercell is often half as wide as a county, so right there it’s 50-50.
I got hit by one of those dust devils you see out west, usually off in the distance, but this one decided to take a little spin through Lakeview, Oregon as I was driving through, on a clear sunny day, I had no idea the thing was there, it came at me from almost behind and left to right across the highway. I guess it would be an F-0 tornado with maybe 50-70 mph wind gusts and it wasn’t even as wide as the road, but it rocked my pickup truck quite violently, lucky for me I was only going about 35 mph. And it was gone behind some buildings within a few seconds never to be seen again. I have seen plenty of other ones but usually a mile or two away, all over Nevada and parts of Utah, Idaho and eastern Oregon. They don’t form underneath thunderstorm clouds, just wherever the air starts rotating, sometimes on a clear day and sometimes not. They tend to be quite erratic in their forward motion and they come in groups of two or three. Nothing like a real tornado except the structure is a miniature replica. Occasionally you will see one forming and dropping down to the surface which is cool.
Yeah; the rain arrived a few minutes ago and now the sirens are going. The wife wants to go in the basement, but I always thought the ground floor works just as well. If the roof and walls collapse, they have to blow away entirely, or you just have the ground floor on top of you in the basement; and not as protection but wreckage.
Thanks for posting this. I’m potentially in the middle of this. I miss the Torcon index from the Weather Channel. It seemed to not only predict the probability of a tornado but more importantly to me, the strength and intensity of one that might develope.
Crazy weather we’ve had this yr. It’s currently 36 degrees just outside Phoenix with a projected high of 64 degrees today. Then by Easter Sunday it’s gonna be ~90 degrees!
Back in ‘70 I was in Texas for Easter vacation — I was going to undergrad there. But, I was from the midwest near StLouis. Called my folks. Was close to 90F the day before and horrendous tornadoes all over the place the next few days.
This type of weather is not rare. Extreme, unseasonal, temps => storms to follow. It is that temp difference that pushes this.
Freezing cold at night, 80 degrees during the day, snow, rain, very sunny. It's like traveling everywhere without going anywhere.
weather will be weather
Tornado watch here in metro Detroit area until 4:00
Maybe it will take care of their abandoned house problem.
We had one years ago. I just made it home from work and parked my truck in the garage when it barreled through. It picked up a heavy steel framed lounge chair a foot or two off the ground as I was heading into the house. It was a tornado later that hit Hamtramck and Highland Park. Those storms killed 7 people, caused local flooding, and destroyed houses due to straight-line winds of up to 100 mph
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