Posted on 12/27/2023 8:56:40 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Are US financial conditions loose as a goose?
Despite resilience in US data, 30Y Yields have plunged back below the 4.00% Maginot Line this morning…
Source: Bloomberg
The last few weeks have seen US macro data reverse its recent trend of disappointment…
Source: Bloomberg
The long-end of the curve is outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
But, ‘do not fight The Fed’ seems to be the narrative and expectations for a March rate-cut are rising once again…
Source: Bloomberg
And the market is pricing in over 160bps of cuts for next year…
Source: Bloomberg
Financial Conditions are now at the same level of looseness as of May 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
That is 300bps of Fed rate-hikes ago!!! Is that really what The Fed wanted?
Jay Powell and The Gang are likely partying at a nightclub drinking Heineken while the rest of us drink Pabst Blue Ribbon.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Bond ETFs should run hard and fast up.... Take the gains and move to risk on industrials that works under biden or trump. The importing of the better jobs from the rest of the world kicks off in 2025.
That Bond Market, like Honey Badger, doesn’t give a darn. Does whatever it wants. Treasury Rates are now normal for this point in the cycle. Now the curve needs to de-invert, and that has begun. It’s good news.
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