So, if all the polls show Bush ahead, but within the margin of error, you can't assume that Bush is really ahead. However, the odds are certainly in your favor that he is.
But to further complicate matters, each poll uses different methodology, so it's wrong to lump them together and believe you're seeing a consistent result.
The best thing to do is to focus on voting as often as you can, and making sure your dead relatives vote also.
NOT TRUE!!!!!
It means only that you'll get the same poll results 95% of the time -- there is still the minor problem of having to assume that your samples are of the true voting population.
There is a famous polling disaster from 1936. An organization did a nation-wide telephone poll and determined that Landon would beat Roosevelt in a landslide. Their polling technique was pretty good, but they left out one major factor: they weren't polling the voting population, but rather the population of people who had phones. And in 1936, that population tended to be much more wealthy, and heavily Republican.
The same problem is going on today: the people who will answer polls are not necessarily representative of the voting population. There have been numerous articles in the past few years discussing the increasing difficulty of getting representative samples: things like unlisted cell phones and caller-ID tend to exclude many people.
Go to the link at my post above, to see how very little the MOE really means in terms of poll results.