Posted on 08/12/2007 10:38:32 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
I've done some digging into the recent scandal over how GISS has quietly changed its data to reflect the fact that 1998 is no longer the warmest year on American record.
However, thanks to the resources of the Wayback Machine of WebArchive, I've discovered that the 1998 data has not been quite so high for a while.
Let's recall that the newly reevaluted figures are as follows:
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.26 * 1881 .29 * 1882 .07 -.24 1883 -.68 -.30 1884 -.63 -.41 1885 -.54 -.46 1886 -.28 -.39 1887 -.17 -.21 1888 -.32 -.06 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .20 -.11 1891 -.20 -.19 1892 -.51 -.21 1893 -.72 -.38 1894 .17 -.30 1895 -.66 -.22 1896 .19 -.10 1897 -.08 -.22 1898 -.15 .03 1899 -.41 .00 1900 .57 -.01 1901 .05 -.11 1902 -.13 -.13 1903 -.65 -.34 1904 -.48 -.35 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.02 -.21 1907 -.24 -.17 1908 .14 -.02 1909 -.27 .02 1910 .28 -.11 1911 .17 -.15 1912 -.88 -.08 1913 -.03 -.16 1914 .09 -.29 1915 -.15 -.33 1916 -.50 -.31 1917 -1.06 -.35 1918 .06 -.40 1919 -.10 -.07 1920 -.41 .17 1921 1.15 .15 1922 .18 .02 1923 -.07 .17 1924 -.74 -.05 1925 .36 -.05 1926 .04 -.02 1927 .15 .01 1928 .07 -.03 1929 -.58 .18 1930 .16 .15 1931 1.08 .27 1932 .00 .63 1933 .68 .61 1934 1.25 .44 1935 .04 .41 1936 .21 .45 1937 -.13 .37 1938 .86 .36 1939 .85 .45 1940 .03 .49 1941 .61 .35 1942 .09 .21 1943 .17 .19 1944 .14 .22 1945 -.03 .22 1946 .72 .17 1947 .10 .18 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .20 -.10 1950 -.28 -.05 1951 -.42 .14 1952 .32 .27 1953 .90 .32 1954 .85 .47 1955 -.03 .43 1956 .29 .26 1957 .14 .13 1958 .06 .08 1959 .17 .02 1960 -.24 -.01 1961 -.02 .02 1962 -.02 -.03 1963 .19 -.01 1964 -.07 -.05 1965 -.11 -.07 1966 -.24 -.16 1967 -.10 -.19 1968 -.28 -.19 1969 -.23 -.16 1970 -.11 -.21 1971 -.10 -.11 1972 -.35 -.03 1973 .24 -.05 1974 .15 -.08 1975 -.20 .06 1976 -.25 -.09 1977 .37 -.24 1978 -.52 -.16 1979 -.60 .02 1980 .22 -.12 1981 .64 -.02 1982 -.36 .10 1983 -.01 -.03 1984 .00 -.01 1985 -.42 .22 1986 .73 .29 1987 .83 .25 1988 .32 .51 1989 -.19 .50 1990 .87 .40 1991 .69 .25 1992 .30 .38 1993 -.44 .27 1994 .46 .10 1995 .34 .05 1996 -.17 .38 1997 .03 .47 1998 1.23 .51 1999 .93 .69 2000 .52 .79 2001 .76 .65 2002 .53 .55 2003 .50 .58 2004 .44 .66 2005 .69 * 2006 1.13 * ---------------------------------
As you can see, 1998's temperature variation is smaller than 1934's, meaning the the temperature anamoly in 1934 was greater than 1998's: and since they're both compared to the same relative mean (1951-1980, according to the graphs page of GISTEMP of GISS.), then 1934's recorded temperature is greater than 1998's. With this in mind, you can see that 1921 is third at 1.15, with 2006 in 4th at 1.13, with 1931 at fifth at 1.08.
Now, we've been hearing that the data has shown that 1998 was previously higher. Most sources I've read, such as Global Warming Hoax have pointed out that the figures before the reevaluation pointed 1998 to be 1.24, with 1934 at 1.23.
But the data pulled from the Wayback Machine Web Archives paints a different picture. Recall that these are archived pages. They cannot reflect the reevaluated figures because they are separated from GISS. They cannot be altered; they are pictures, snapshots of a particular point in time. With that in mind, keep on reading.
Let's go back to September 01, 2006. Amidst the menagerie of broken images, you can click on the DATA & IMAGES toolbar up top. Then go to GISS Surface Air Temperature Analysis. Now Graphs. Scroll down Annual Mean Temperature Change in the United States and click on tabular data. What do we get?
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.41 .13 1881 .15 -.14 1882 -.04 -.34 1883 -.70 -.36 1884 -.73 -.44 1885 -.50 -.48 1886 -.25 -.39 1887 -.21 -.19 1888 -.28 -.05 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .23 -.10 1891 -.24 -.17 1892 -.47 -.21 1893 -.66 -.39 1894 .11 -.31 1895 -.69 -.24 1896 .17 -.14 1897 -.12 -.25 1898 -.17 .00 1899 -.43 -.02 1900 .54 -.01 1901 .07 -.11 1902 -.09 -.11 1903 -.65 -.31 1904 -.41 -.34 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.06 -.21 1907 -.22 -.18 1908 .11 -.02 1909 -.25 .01 1910 .31 -.12 1911 .11 -.17 1912 -.89 -.11 1913 -.13 -.21 1914 .03 -.33 1915 -.16 -.36 1916 -.51 -.32 1917 -1.00 -.36 1918 .02 -.42 1919 -.15 -.10 1920 -.45 .12 1921 1.08 .10 1922 .11 -.01 1923 -.09 .15 1924 -.70 -.05 1925 .38 -.04 1926 .04 -.01 1927 .16 .02 1928 .05 -.03 1929 -.54 .16 1930 .11 .12 1931 1.00 .24 1932 -.01 .60 1933 .66 .58 1934 1.24 .42 1935 .05 .40 1936 .18 .43 1937 -.12 .34 1938 .78 .34 1939 .80 .41 1940 .04 .45 1941 .54 .32 1942 .07 .18 1943 .16 .17 1944 .09 .20 1945 -.01 .20 1946 .67 .15 1947 .09 .17 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .18 -.08 1950 -.23 -.04 1951 -.38 .15 1952 .30 .28 1953 .88 .31 1954 .82 .44 1955 -.05 .41 1956 .28 .25 1957 .14 .12 1958 .07 .09 1959 .16 .03 1960 -.22 .00 1961 .00 .02 1962 -.02 -.03 1963 .19 .00 1964 -.08 -.05 1965 -.12 -.07 1966 -.24 -.16 1967 -.10 -.19 1968 -.27 -.19 1969 -.23 -.16 1970 -.12 -.22 1971 -.10 -.11 1972 -.36 -.04 1973 .25 -.05 1974 .15 -.08 1975 -.20 .07 1976 -.23 -.09 1977 .36 -.23 1978 -.51 -.15 1979 -.58 .03 1980 .22 -.12 1981 .65 -.01 1982 -.36 .10 1983 .01 -.02 1984 .01 -.01 1985 -.41 .23 1986 .73 .30 1987 .84 .26 1988 .33 .52 1989 -.17 .51 1990 .88 .41 1991 .69 .26 1992 .31 .38 1993 -.43 .28 1994 .47 .10 1995 .35 .05 1996 -.18 .38 1997 .05 .48 1998 1.24 .54 1999 .94 .55 2000 .65 .88 2001 .89 .76 2002 .67 .68 2003 .65 .75 2004 .54 * 2005 .99 * ------------------------------------------------------
Now we see that 1998 and 1934 are tied at 1.24. Not reflective of the truth, but different than the spouted line that 1998 was hotter than 1934. 1921 and 1931 are much colder in this snapshot; 1.08 and 1.00 respectively. You'll notice that one big jump is 2005: at .99, its reevaluated figure of .69 is a tremendous fall.
Things get odder as we go further back in time, however. August 03, 2004. Follow the same path I described above to the data for U.S. temperature, up to 2003. Here's where things get REALLY interesting.
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.41 .13 1881 .15 -.14 1882 -.04 -.34 1883 -.70 -.36 1884 -.73 -.44 1885 -.50 -.48 1886 -.25 -.39 1887 -.21 -.19 1888 -.28 -.05 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .23 -.10 1891 -.24 -.17 1892 -.47 -.21 1893 -.66 -.39 1894 .11 -.31 1895 -.69 -.24 1896 .17 -.14 1897 -.12 -.25 1898 -.17 .00 1899 -.43 -.02 1900 .54 -.01 1901 .07 -.11 1902 -.09 -.11 1903 -.65 -.31 1904 -.41 -.34 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.06 -.21 1907 -.22 -.18 1908 .11 -.02 1909 -.25 .01 1910 .31 -.12 1911 .11 -.17 1912 -.89 -.11 1913 -.13 -.21 1914 .03 -.33 1915 -.16 -.36 1916 -.51 -.32 1917 -1.00 -.36 1918 .02 -.42 1919 -.15 -.10 1920 -.45 .12 1921 1.08 .10 1922 .11 -.01 1923 -.09 .15 1924 -.70 -.05 1925 .38 -.04 1926 .04 -.01 1927 .16 .02 1928 .05 -.03 1929 -.54 .16 1930 .11 .12 1931 1.00 .24 1932 -.01 .60 1933 .66 .58 1934 1.24 .42 1935 .05 .40 1936 .18 .43 1937 -.12 .34 1938 .78 .34 1939 .80 .41 1940 .04 .45 1941 .54 .32 1942 .07 .18 1943 .16 .17 1944 .09 .20 1945 -.01 .20 1946 .67 .15 1947 .09 .17 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .18 -.08 1950 -.23 -.04 1951 -.38 .15 1952 .30 .28 1953 .88 .31 1954 .82 .44 1955 -.05 .41 1956 .28 .25 1957 .14 .12 1958 .07 .09 1959 .16 .03 1960 -.22 .00 1961 .00 .03 1962 .00 -.03 1963 .19 -.01 1964 -.10 -.05 1965 -.13 -.07 1966 -.22 -.17 1967 -.08 -.19 1968 -.30 -.19 1969 -.21 -.17 1970 -.13 -.22 1971 -.11 -.11 1972 -.32 -.03 1973 .23 -.05 1974 .18 -.08 1975 -.22 .05 1976 -.26 -.09 1977 .35 -.24 1978 -.49 -.15 1979 -.58 .03 1980 .23 -.11 1981 .64 -.02 1982 -.35 .10 1983 -.03 -.03 1984 .02 -.01 1985 -.40 .21 1986 .71 .28 1987 .76 .25 1988 .32 .50 1989 -.15 .49 1990 .85 .40 1991 .65 .25 1992 .30 .38 1993 -.40 .28 1994 .48 .12 1995 .36 .07 1996 -.14 .39 1997 .05 .49 1998 1.20 .54 1999 .95 .75 2000 .65 .83 2001 .89 .68 2002 .45 * 2003 .48 * ---------------------------------
Hold up. 1998 is now at 1.20. This puts it BEHIND 1934 as the hottest year on record, which is still at 1.24. As a matter of fact, in this archived page, 2002 and 2003 (.45, and .48 respectively) are all COLDER than the reevaluated figures show (.53, and .59 respectively). As another oddity, 1999 and 2001 are both hotter in the archived figures than they are in reevaluated data(compare .95 to .93 for 1999, and .89 to .76 for 2001). More and more changes abound, hotter and colder all around. What gives?
The most glowing difference nonetheless remains the change in data for 1998. It is colder than 1934.
And as we go back to the GISS page as archived on October 16, 2002, we see that the tabular data for U.S. temperatures goes only as far as 1999. Let's compare again.
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.41 .13 1881 .15 -.14 1882 -.04 -.34 1883 -.70 -.36 1884 -.73 -.44 1885 -.50 -.48 1886 -.25 -.39 1887 -.21 -.19 1888 -.28 -.05 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .23 -.10 1891 -.24 -.17 1892 -.47 -.21 1893 -.66 -.39 1894 .11 -.31 1895 -.69 -.24 1896 .17 -.14 1897 -.12 -.25 1898 -.17 .00 1899 -.43 -.02 1900 .54 -.01 1901 .07 -.11 1902 -.09 -.11 1903 -.65 -.31 1904 -.41 -.34 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.06 -.21 1907 -.22 -.18 1908 .11 -.02 1909 -.25 .01 1910 .31 -.12 1911 .11 -.17 1912 -.89 -.11 1913 -.13 -.21 1914 .03 -.33 1915 -.16 -.36 1916 -.51 -.32 1917 -1.00 -.36 1918 .02 -.42 1919 -.15 -.10 1920 -.45 .12 1921 1.08 .10 1922 .11 -.01 1923 -.09 .15 1924 -.70 -.05 1925 .38 -.04 1926 .04 -.01 1927 .16 .02 1928 .05 -.03 1929 -.54 .16 1930 .11 .12 1931 1.00 .24 1932 -.01 .60 1933 .66 .58 1934 1.24 .42 1935 .05 .40 1936 .18 .43 1937 -.12 .34 1938 .78 .34 1939 .80 .41 1940 .04 .45 1941 .54 .32 1942 .07 .18 1943 .16 .17 1944 .09 .20 1945 -.01 .20 1946 .67 .15 1947 .09 .17 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .18 -.08 1950 -.23 -.04 1951 -.38 .15 1952 .30 .28 1953 .88 .31 1954 .82 .44 1955 -.05 .41 1956 .28 .25 1957 .14 .12 1958 .07 .09 1959 .16 .03 1960 -.22 .00 1961 .00 .03 1962 .00 -.03 1963 .19 -.01 1964 -.10 -.05 1965 -.13 -.07 1966 -.22 -.17 1967 -.08 -.19 1968 -.30 -.19 1969 -.21 -.17 1970 -.13 -.22 1971 -.11 -.11 1972 -.32 -.03 1973 .23 -.05 1974 .18 -.08 1975 -.22 .05 1976 -.26 -.09 1977 .35 -.24 1978 -.49 -.15 1979 -.58 .03 1980 .23 -.11 1981 .64 -.02 1982 -.35 .10 1983 -.03 -.03 1984 .02 -.01 1985 -.40 .21 1986 .71 .28 1987 .76 .25 1988 .32 .50 1989 -.15 .49 1990 .85 .40 1991 .65 .25 1992 .30 .38 1993 -.40 .28 1994 .48 .12 1995 .36 .07 1996 -.14 .39 1997 .05 .49 1998 1.20 * 1999 .95 * ---------------------------------
1998 remains at 1.20. 1934 is still the hottest year on record in America...and all before this latest hubbub over altered data.
So what does this say?
Considering James Hansen's refusal to reveal the algorithms used to originally calculate the faulty data, this speaks of not just an effort to hide NASA/GISS's screw up (especially considering the media silence on this), but of a blatant, outright falsehood that's been perpetrated over the last several years.
1998, until now, was claimed to be the hottest year on record. That claim was made using faulty data. And yet the faulty data that this claim was made on says something different altogether!
It says a lot about the character of the pushers of manmade global warming when both the truth (the reevaluated data) and the lie (the archived data) both say that they're wrong. Yikes.
“Al’s still sore’s” man on the inside - Hansen, needs to be fined, fired, and forgotten.
GISS and James Hansen have REWRITTEN the data 5 different times now.
The Hadley Centre in the UK (the other big organization tracking global temperatures) has adjusted the data 7 times already. Phil Jones (the main guy at the Hadley Centre who kicked off the 1st of these adjustments in 1990) claims to have lost the original data.
So, you can’t trust these two organizations or anything they have produced. They are warming alarmists through and through and the charts you see of global warming over the past century (0.8C of increase) is made up of 0.7C of “adjustments” and 0.1C of raw data increase.
L
....and good thinking, using the web archived data.
Do you have copies of those pages saved? I wouldn't be surprised if someone couldn't make them disappear.
I should do that.
For later...
For later...
Nice work.....this is getting to be fun!!!
I have no idea what that all means ... so I’ll leave it to the smarter folks to figure it out :0)
What do you make of this?
Note the date on the GISS web page as of today - 8/13/2007 - regarding this subject:
Feb. 8, 2007
...The five warmest years since the late 1880s, according to NASA scientists, are in descending order 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2006. Credit: NASA
Other groups that study climate change also rank these years as among the warmest, though the exact rankings vary depending upon details of the analyses. Results differ especially in regions of sparse measurements, where scientists use alternative methods of estimating temperature change.
Goddard Institute researchers used temperature data from weather stations on land, satellite measurements of sea surface temperature since 1982 and data from ships for earlier years. http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20070208/
It’s a report made that doesn’t reflect current data.
It should be taken down.
I agree. Note that it is supposed to reflect the hottest years on the whole earth - not just the USA.
Also note the faulty sources they used to collect the data in the first place.
Bookmarking for later consideration. Thanks for the ping xcamel!
Bookmarked
In every other case in science, when a reseasrcher is caught publishing fraudulent data, he is quickly and quietly retired from the lab. The capacity for self-policing is considerable.
Why Hansen has not yet received similar treatment is a sad comment.
There is a groupthink mentality in the MSM which forbids contradiction with the environistas.
This story is getting no traction because the NYC outlets do not want it to get traction.
If you do a google search on Hansen and altered data, you only get his 2006 60 minutes (fake but accurate) CBS story.
Ping of interest.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.