NFL PING
FReepmail scott says to be added to, or to be taken off the NFL Ping list...
This is a fairly high volume ping list
Posted on 12/29/2007 9:34:18 AM PST by Jack Black
Five of the six slots in the NFC are decided prior to this, the last week of play. I have read several analysis that say various teams can't win, and not all of them are correct.
Lets take a look at the ultimate possible nightmare scenario. This last week's games resolve themselves in such a way that there are five teams with identical regular season records vying for the final playoff birth.
Current standing in the NFC there are these:
Skins 8 and 7 Vikes 8 and 7 Saints 7 and 8 Lions 7 and 8 Cards 7 and 8
OK, let us look at what is possible, first, not what is likely. Could ALL these teams end up 8 and 8? Or must, due to the dynamics of the schedule at least one end up 9 and 7.
Skins play Dallas. They can lose. Vikes play Broncos. They can lose. NO plays Chicago. They can win. Lions play GB. They can win. Cards play STL, They can win.
So, none of the teams are playing each other this week, which makes it both simpler and harder. The events listed above don't effect any of the other five seeds, they are all still in, but now we have an AMAZING five-way tie for the last slot? All five teams are 8 and 8.
So who gets it?
So now we have to go to the tiebreaking critera. The NFL has laid all this out on their web site (and I've appended it below). The first criteria is the record among the tied teams.
We have to calculate the win/loss percentage among these teams!
Skins 3-0 100% Vikes 1-2 33% Saints 1-0 100% Lions 1-3 25% Cards 1-2 33%
Wow! Another tie! Saints and Skins are both 100% in their 'gang of five' matchups. We then go to conference records
To get here (the five way tie) we said the Saints lost this weeks game against Dallas (an NFC team) so there conference record would fall from 6-5 to 6-6, or 50%.
Meanwhile for the Saints to get here they need to win, beating the Bears, an NFC team, boosting their record in the NFC to 7 and 5, or 58%.
In a five way tie the Saints will go to the playoffs based on the second tie breaking criteria!!
Of course I could have missed something... many others appear to me to have in their analysis. So, I've shown my work.
A few other scenarios:
Skins control their destiny.
If they win they go, regardless of any other teams play this weekend. (If Vikes win too they fall back to the first tie-breaker, won/lost between the teams. Washington beat Minn in their only meeting this year.)
Also, for the same reason if both the Vikes and the Skins lose, but the Saints, Lions and Cards lose too then the Skins go, based on that regular season win over the Vikings.
If the Vikes win and the Saints lose they go, on the basic criteria of the best record among the wildcards. (No tiebreaking needed)
As the Lions and Cards both lost to Washington and their best case is a win this week coupled with a losses by Washington and the Vikings (to get them all to 8 and 8) they have no chance. They will always have a worse record than Washington in any "pool" of tied teams.
OK. Well I stand by for comments, corrections and kvetching!
*****START NFL PROCEDURES FROM NFL.COM*****
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
(March 20, 2002) -- With the NFL realigning into eight four-team divisions to accommodate the arrival of the Houston Texans, the league adopted new tiebreaking rules.
Common opponents will now be the third tiebreaker within a division after head-to-head games and division record because each of the four teams will have 14 common games in the 16-game schedule. The owners also moved the strength-of-victory tiebreaker ahead of the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.
The six postseason participants from each conference will now be seeded as follows:
1. The division champion with the best record.
2. The division champion with the second-best record.
3. The division champion with the third-best record.
4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.
The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.
NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.
OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different ivisions).
TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:
1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.
If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.
What then? Then they lose to the Pats!
ML/NJ
I agree the current rules are too complicated. In fact after posting this I realized I made a mistake!!
*****HERE IS THE UPDATE*****
Five-Way Tie for the last NFC Wildcard slot, then what?
Five of the six slots in the NFC are decided prior to this, the last week of play.
I have read several analysis that say various teams can’t win, and not all of them are correct.
Lets take a look at the ultimate possible nightmare scenario. This last week’s games resolve themselves in such a way that there are five teams with identical regular season records vying for the final playoff birth.
Current standing in the NFC there are these:
Skins 8 and 7
Vikes 8 and 7
Saints 7 and 8
Lions 7 and 8
Cards 7 and 8
OK, let us look at what is possible, first, not what is likely.
Could ALL these teams end up 8 and 8? Or must, due to the dynamics of the schedule at least one end up 9 and 7.
Skins play Dallas. They can lose.
Vikes play Broncos. They can lose.
NO plays Chicago. They can win.
Lions play GB. They can win.
Cards play STL, They can win.
So, none of the teams are playing each other this week, which makes it both simpler and harder. The events listed above don’t effect any of the other five seeds, they are all still in, but now we have an AMAZING five-way tie for the last slot? All five teams are 8 and 8.
So who gets it?
So now we have to go to the tiebreaking critera.
First we have two teams (Detroit and Minnesota) tied for the 2nd best record in the NFC North. The “Wild Card Tie Breaker rules say this is resolved by using the divsion tie breaker rules.
First criteria is head to head between the teams. They each won one of the two meetings in the regular season. So another tie.
Second criteria is best won-lost-tied percentage within the division. The Vikings are 3-3 going into this week, and playing Dallas, outside their division. They would remain 3 and 3. The Lions are 3-2 and if they beat Greenbay they will be 4-2. Therefore the Lions would eliminate the Vikings under this scenario.
We have no gotten our five tied teams down to four tied teams, one from each division.
Second criteria: (first is the division leader we just did) Head to Head sweep. Did any of the teams beat all the others in the “pool”. No, the skins did not play Arizona.
Third criteria: best win-loss-tied in the Conference.
Skins are 6-5 and would fall to 6-6 with a Dallas loss.
Saints are 6-5 and would rise to 7-5 with a Bears win.
Detroit is 4-7 and would rise to 5-7 with a win over Green Bay
Arizona is 4-7 moving to 5-7.
So the Saints go in a 5 way tie!
A few other scenarios:
Skins control their destiny.
If they win they go, regardless of any other teams play this weekend. (If Vikes win too they fall back to the first tie-breaker, won/lost between the teams. Washington beat Minn in their only meeting this year.)
Also, for the same reason if both the Vikes and the Skins lose, but the Saints, Lions and Cards lose too then the Skins go, based on that regular season win over the Vikings.
If the Vikes win and the Saints lose they go, on the basic criteria of the best record among the wildcards. (No tiebreaking needed
Talk about “Who’s on First”!
More rule changes:
Regular season overtime: first team to score four overtime points wins, game ends after 15 minutes of overtime.That's enough for them to tackle at the Winter Meetings.Playoff overtime: First team to score four overtime points wins.
Yellow, red cards: Adopt soccer's yellow and red card system. All 15 yard penalties incur a yellow. All players with a handful of someone else's jersey get a yellow or maybe a red. I don't know. Intentional cheating has to stop.
Defensive pass interference: results in a maximum penalty of 15 yards, or half the distance, unless the referee rules that it was flagrant pass interference.
Offensive holding: is always to be penalized from the spot of the foul.
Illegal procedure: does not result in no play. Plays begin with either ball or player movement.
Intentional grounding: All forward passes not touched by a player in the field of play before hitting the ground result in the next play beginning from the spot of the pass, but but IG is otherwise not considered a penalty.
Touchbacks: bring the ball out to the ten yard line.
Kicks into the endzone: do not result in a touchback until they come to rest.
Attempting to maim a receiver: who has just caught a ball is not a legal way to defend against forward passes. It is unacceptable roughness and should be an automatic red card.
Replays: No more referees under the hood agonizing over whether the call on the field was correct of not. Instead a referee in the stands watching TV can stop the game for up to 30 seconds to review obvious mistakes made on the field, including penalties. He is in touch with the referee on the field, and can inform him as to what actually happened.
ML/NJ
Hey, not bad! Of all yours I like the four points rule the best!
It’s “score 4 points” not “win by 4 points”, right?
Right now it’s “win the toss, score a field goal” which is boring, I agree.
ML/NJ
You’d see more teams going for TDs which would make it more interesting. There woudl be some strategy. (Do I take 3 and try to go for another FG, or do-or-die on the TD).
It would effect the point spreads a lot, due to the increased incentive for TDs. The typical 24-21 game which was created via a 21-21 tie and a FG, would now become a 27-21 game. Not sure how this would effect the bookies.
I like it!
Are the overtime rules the same in the playoffs?
I'd like to see field goal points based on distance....maybe 1 point for those little chip shots, 2 points for the 20 yarder, 3 points for the 30-49 yarder and 4 points for anything greater than 50 years.
My rules?
I would just have them switch sides after 15 minutes and keep going until one team has scored four or more points. (Alternative is to stop at the end of the first 15 minute overtime if one team is ahead.)
ML/NJ
You must not watch any ESPN.
Detroit and Arizona are already eliminated.
If Washington, Minnesota, and New Orleans end up tied at 8-8, New Orleans goes to the playoffs because they will have the best conference record at 7-5.
It is very simple.
As I read those rules, the tie between the Vikings and the Lions must be broken first — they are in the same division.
If the Lions beat Green Bay (which they must do to achieve the tie), then they beat out the Vikings on divisional tiebreakers.
Then what remains is a 4-way tie among Wash, Det, NO, and Ariz.
NO would have a 7-5 record inside the conference, Washington 6-6, Detroit and Arizona each at 5-7. Therefore the Saints win on the tiebreaker.
ML/NJ
Vikes are coached by Brad Childress, so they should be eliminated on grounds of gross stupidity.
At 7:45 tomorrow night, we’ll know who is in the NFC. No need to worry about tiebreakers.
If the Patriots keep playing like this, some team will knock them off. They got four touchdowns hung on them by Eli Manning, for crying out loud, plus a kick return.
I’ve always contended that the “sudden-death” overtime in football should be modified. I would just give both teams one possession. If a team wins the toss and scores, the opponent gets the ball kicked off to them as usual. If, after a possession each, no one has scored or the game is still tied, then go to sudden death. It may result in a few more tied games, but I think each team deserves at least one chance on offense.
Or, just play out the full 15 minute overtime. If a regular season game is still tied after that, so be it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.