Sun Seems Eerily Calm

Space.com ^ | 06/11/2008 | Andrea Thompson

[JustDoItAlways]

The most recent Total Solar Irradiance numbers from the PMOD composite are lower than the estimated TSI throughout the 20th Century.

The Sun has definitely cooled off.

[I got the rope]

LOL.

[Rudder]

If I correct the statement (Prior to the industrial revolution, "variability of the sun probably accounted for about 10 to 30 percent of climate variability...") it's an improvement.

The variability of mean temperature of this distribution is held relatively leptocurtic, at whatever temperature possible, because of the sun.

Illustrated by the question, in lay terms: what would the variability be without the sun?

[gleeaikin]

“less sunspots than normal”

I attended a lecture by an experienced solar scientist. He says the next several will probably be a little cooler, but will then be followed by much hotter weather. If the average 88 year sunspot cycle pattern is still in effect, add that figure to the dates of of the severe weather in the Great Depression, roughly 1929 to 1933, and probably we will have very bad conditions around 2017 to 2021. For those unfamiliar with the sun spot cycles, they average 11 years, 22 years, and a major cycle 88 years.

[gleeaikin]

I guess what has the Global Warming folks in an uproar is what is shown on Figures 2, 3, 4, and 6 on your link. It is very clear on these Figures that after 1980 temperatures [the red line] continued to rise although the blue lines dropped back down. This is different from the previous 100 years, where they seemed to go up and down in tandem.

[gleeaikin]

Hathaway’s explanation of variability.

I suspect he is comparing the variability with a base line of sun influence. Kind of like if a pot of water is on simmer, the water is 112 degrees farenheit, but if you turn up the heat you get a rolling boil which is a little hotter. If you consider the sun’s base line is a simmer, then the variability is anything more than that.

[PA Engineer]

Nice find. Filing away for future reference.

[PA Engineer]

I have to compile my data from my Davis weather station for the last four years. I have noticed a dramatic drop off in solar radiation as compared to the previous four year period. I will have to see how it compares to other Davis recordings in the online community. Your graph goes to 2007 and (I can confirm from my station) so far this year (2008) those numbers appear to be trending much lower.

[JustDoItAlways]

Up-to-date PMOD composite Total Solar Irradiance data for the last three cycles is charted at this link.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod/mean:12

The SORCE solar instrument is not recording the extent of drop-off as PMOD but is still trending lower indicating solar cycle 23 is not over yet.

http://lasp.colorado.edu/cgi-bin/ion-p?page=input_data_for_tsi.ion

[cogitator]

Intriguing. Thanks. I found the following link to find out more about PMOD.

ACRIM vs. PMOD -- is the Sun getting hotter?

[cogitator]

It is very clear on these Figures that after 1980 temperatures [the red line] continued to rise although the blue lines dropped back down.

Following along the issue as I've been doing for years, there seems to have been a common view that the anthropogenic global warming signal perceptibly emerged from the noise of natural climate variability with the warming trend that commenced in the mid-1970s. Even though there will continue to be troughs and valleys (we're in a trough), unless something really drastic happens, the trend in temperatures will continue upward.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

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[wolfcreek]

Hmmm? Still winter in Canada and the NW US causing flooding and tornadoes in the Midwest. Huge snow packs in the Cascades and Rockies.

Could be!

[wolfcreek]

GW caused by the approach of PLANET-X.

http://www.planet-x.150m.com/changes.html

[RightWhale]

There is a coronal hole.

A solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on or about June 16th.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[aruanan]

Prior to the industrial revolution, the sun probably accounted for about 10 to 30 percent of climate variability, Hathaway told SPACE.com, but now that greenhouse gases have started to build up, "the sun's contribution is getting smaller and smaller," he added.

Is he related to Jane Hathaway? The greenhouse gases depend on the sun for any effect they have. Besides, CO2 was already on the increase before the Industrial Revolution, probably from the last round of warming in the Medieval Warm Period. It's been around the right length of time from the onset of the MWP to the start of the increase in CO2.

[aruanan]

That's like worrying that we'll enter another Medieval Warm Period. We may well be entering another minimum, but another Maunder minimum would require time travel, as it was a specific historic event.

You're reaching. If someone said, "We could enter the Maunder minimum" then you could say that. But no one is or has been saying that. Just as when people say that we could enter another great depression no one is thinking that we'd be entering the same one that ended over 60 years ago.

[Rurudyne]

I’m already bucking for the “Gore-Hansen Minimum” for various reasons.

Oh, and the article is a BIT deceptive since it seems that large weather patters, like El Nino, are related to the Sun’s cycles ... so saying that the Sun isn’t a major factor — but something caused by the variability of solar performance is — is a bit like saying that the National Debt is caused by vendors selling office supplies to the federal government.

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[AFPhys]

for comment later.