While it's clear that Lee's most immediate and pressing need was resupply, due to the complete and utter inadequacy of Confederate logistics, Lee was always thinking about the larger implications of every move he made - strategically, politically, diplomatically, etc.
Necessity is the mother of invention, and was especially in Lee's fertile mind. Lee did not want to fight a major battle on Northern soil: he hoped to take Harrisburg, sever its rail and telegraph lines and seize all its military stores. Even after the battle of Gettysburg started against Lee's direct orders, JEB Stuart was still involved with Harrisburg, which he believed to be the goal of the campaign.
On the question of a President McClellan recognizing the Confederacy:
That would never have happened. As I said above, McClellan's only concern was preserving the Union. He would have made any kind of humiliating and unwise concession as long as the South was willing to nominally remain within the Union. McClellan was obsessed with how history would view him, and there was no way in hell that he would be willing to be remembered as the president who agreed to break up the Union. McClellan would have agreed to any terms short of disunion.
There was a peace party in the North, but there was no separation party in the North - just a scattered band of malcontents like Vallandigham, who was already completely discredited as a crank before Gettysburg.
On the question of guerrilla warfare:
There are two basic command structures for such a campaign: one with a chain of command and one of independent cells with no chain of command.
Stand watie is arguing that Lee's decision to not assume command of such a guerrilla campaign was the only reason why such a guerrilla campaign did not materialize and win the war.
In fact, both kinds of guerrilla command structures emerged after Lee's surrender.
There was Hood's attempt to put together a guerrilla army with a chain of command, which failed.
There was Gordon's attempt to put together the KKK as a secret guerrilla army with a chain of command, which also failed. By 1869, the Klan was already portraying itself as a patriotic organization loyal to the federal government, in the craven hope that federal troops, would not crack down on it.
And there was also the attempt to create a guerrilla movement without a chain of command based on local units independent of any overarching command structure. Like Quantrill's raiders, Bloody Bill Anderson, The James and Younger Gang, etc. Anderson didn't even survive the war and Quantrill only survived it by weeks.
Lee was not necessary for the founding or inspiring of a guerrilla movement. Such a movement had extremely popular, capable and effective prospective leaders in Hood and Forrest, and the KKK's founding shows how many willing accomplices they would have had.
By 1869, all these flames of continuing guerrilla struggle were extinguished, and they were extinguished after a career than never threatened to alter Northern public opinion in the slightest about the advisability of prosecuting the war or punishing traitors.
The notion that a guerrilla force can live off the kindness of a willing populace is also a myth. Guerrilla movements sustain themselves by shaking down and robbing the local populace, and bribing local opinion leaders when their activity becomes too egregious.
A perfect example is the Confederate guerrilla unit known as the James Gang. They sustained themselves through robbery and murder, justifying their terrorist activities as political blows for freedom through their newspaper lackey Johnny Edwards. They attempted a raid on the North, namely on St. Paul/Minneapolis - they were stopped cold in Northfield and never tried again.
Eventually, James was killed by one of his confederates for cash.
Thanks for a very informative post. I agree with nearly all of it.
My question has to do with the Democrat "Peace Party."
You say that McClellan would never agree to southern secession, and yet, to my knowledge, there was no SOUTHERN "peace party." No one in the South was going to agree to union, with or without slavery, short of military defeat.
So who was McClellan going to negotiate with?
Remember, Lee's goal was to win enough battles so the North would give up the fight and negotiate a peace which would recognize the South's independence.
If Lee had won at Gettysburg (which is what this discussion is all about), then he would be one step closer to his goal, and McClellan one step closer to the Presidency, seems to me.