Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
Now that’s a good one!
So Dog, it sounds like you are seeing a possibility of a Houston landfall?
spahghettihttps://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_04
loop easier referancehttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
This loop shows the wall to the west and north and somewhat east, looks like it might set here a while http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
Good still shot that reloadshttp://weather.cod.edu/satellite/regional/caribbean-wv.gif
Nice to see you again. hope all is well.
hard to tell. does it have an eye yet?
Yeah but the immages are getting hard to load, best one is visible loop at top of article.
Nice graphic thanks, no eye yet, but getting better organized.
Hmnnn...in that loop, it appears the eye is forming a bit more to the west.... and, moving more in a Westerly direction...
That’s not great news for me, as I am supposed to fly to Vera Cruz on Wed..... should be a fun ride.
Watch it!!
Thanks for the ping. The cone is closer to Texas than Fla per tv graphic at this time.
...Dolly now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico...
at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Hurricane Watch is issued for the
Texas coast from Brownsville northward to Port O’Connor. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 1100 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is issued for the Texas
coast from north of Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 1100 am EDT...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
Watch from Rio San Fernando Mexico northward to the U.S.
Border...and a tropical storm watch from La Pesca Mexico northward
to Rio San Fernando.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico from the border with Belize to Campeche Mexico.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 22.1 north...longitude 89.5 west or about 55
miles... 90 km...north-northeast of Progreso Mexico.
Dolly is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A
gradual decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days...with little change in the direction of motion. On
this track...Dolly will be approaching the coast of the western
Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast...and Dolly could become a
hurricane by tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent aircraft data
is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of two to four
inches across the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico with
isolated maximum amounts up to six inches.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...22.1 N...89.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Satellite imagery and radar observations from Cancun Mexico indicate
that the mid-level center of the tropical cyclone reformed to the
north of the previous track. However...synoptic data cast doubt on
the existence of a surface circulation center. Since the system
continues to generate vigorous convection and strong winds...and it
appears likely that the surface center will soon reappear...it is
prudent to continue issuing advisories and warnings on Dolly.
The current intensity estimate is 45 kt...in line with the latest
Dvorak analyses from TAFB. An upper-level low is moving into the
Bay of Campeche and seems to be increasing its separation distance
from the tropical cyclone...and also diminishing its shearing
influence. Upper-level outflow is expanding over the northern
semicircle of Dolly and this...combined with the warm waters of the
Gulf of Mexico...presages intensification. The current NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and also similar
to the dynamical intensity model consensus.
With the lack of a surface center and the reformation...initial
motion is somewhat uncertain. My best guess...305/13...is not much
different than in the previous package. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm is forecast to weaken in a couple of days and
the track guidance is fairly consistent in calling for a slowing of
forward speed by 48 hours...thereafter...the key player in the
steering pattern for Dolly is a mid-level ridge over the Southern
Plains. Global models show slightly different strengths and
configurations of this ridge around 72 hours and different
latitudes of landfall along the western Gulf of Mexico coast.
Although one should not focus on the exact landfall point in 2 to 3
days time...interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of Dolly.
Another NOAA P3 aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later
this morning.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0900z 21.3n 87.4w 45 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 22.6n 89.6w 50 kt
24hr VT 22/0600z 23.6n 92.2w 55 kt
36hr VT 22/1800z 24.4n 94.2w 65 kt
48hr VT 23/0600z 25.0n 95.5w 75 kt
72hr VT 24/0600z 26.0n 98.0w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/0600z 26.5n 100.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/0600z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Watch is issued for the Texas coast from Brownsville
northward to Port O'Connor...a tropical storm watch is issued for
the Texas coast from north of Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Oh boy, here we go...
Hang on to your wallet!
The storm activity in July does not bode well for the more active months of August/September.
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