Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 26
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 21, 2008
Fay has still refused to decidedly begin moving westward as we and
the models have been forecasting...but it appears to be drifting
westward...with the center located just inland from the northeast
Florida coast. The overall appearance in radar imagery has
degraded slightly during the past few hours...but WSR-88D
velocities suggest that surface winds over water to the south and
east of the center remain as strong as about 50 kt...although that
radar feature has been steadily shrinking.
Even though we said this last night...and it did not happen...all of
the model guidance indicates that Fay should start truly moving
westward within the next several hours...as a mid-level ridge
builds over the mid-Atlantic states. That ridge should keep Fay on
a general westward to west-northwestward path during the next few
days. The model consensus track has not changed too much since the
last cycle...so the official track remains along that of the
previous advisory...taking Fay along the Florida Panhandle coast.
Some models such as the ECMWF and HWRF continue to forecast a more
southerly track over the northeastern Gulf...while the
GFS...GFDL...and UKMET forecast Fay to remain inland over the
Panhandle. Later...at 3 to 5 days...most of the guidance shows
another slowdown as ridging builds over the Southern Plains and
blocks Fay’s forward progress again. The new official track shows
essentially no motion beyond 72 hours.
The exact track could have a significant impact on how strong Fay is
after crossing the northern Florida Peninsula. If the more
southerly tracks are correct and Fay spends a good bit of time
centered over the northeastern Gulf...it could restrengthen beyond
24 hours...but if the opposite occurs and it never emerges back
over water...permanent weakening to a depression could happen
within the next day or so. Since the official track remains along
the Florida Panhandle coast...and using the intensity model
consensus as guidance...the new official intensity forecast keeps
Fay as a borderline tropical storm through 48 hours...requiring the
issuance of new watches and warnings along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Regardless of its exact track...Fay will be moving rather slowly
during the next several days...posing a significant heavy rainfall
and flood hazard to a very large area.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/0300z 29.3n 81.4w 50 kt
12hr VT 22/1200z 29.4n 82.3w 40 kt...inland
24hr VT 23/0000z 29.6n 83.7w 35 kt...over Gulf of Mexico
36hr VT 23/1200z 30.0n 85.3w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 24/0000z 30.4n 86.7w 35 kt...near coast
72hr VT 25/0000z 31.0n 88.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 26/0000z 31.2n 89.0w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 27/0000z 31.5n 89.5w 25 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Knabb
Yes, Western NC is in radically severe drought...
I don’t know if this works but it’s a good animation of he drought changes in NC over 2007 and 2008.
http://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/2007/10/11/1916693/1916705-1216312257-100x75.jpg
Or go here http://www.wral.com/weather/asset_gallery/1738766/
and click on “NC Drought Time Lapse Animation”...
I like Knabb’s style
My husband saves turtles in the road :’)
That is such a pretty area normally so lush and green. They will probably lose a lot of trees from the drought.
We lost our power on westside of Jacksonville around 8:30 pm so we went and got a hotel near Jacksonville Naval Air Station.
We were blessed to find a place for the wife needs power to run her oxygen machine.
God is good. It’s kind of like a mini vacation within 10 miles of home.
I’m glad you were able to find alternate arrangements so quickly. Thanks for checking in. We’re praying for you and all those drenched by Fay.
me too
He is. I’m glad you and your wife are safe.
They could also be laughing because they can't figure out which way Fay is going to go and it's cover for them just sitting there with a blank look on their faces. :)
Hope the rain dries up soon .... so so worrisome to see it come up to the house like that and the roads around you like rivers. Prayers for you and all in Freaky Fay’s path. Go away, Fay .... you stink!
I remember it didn’t take me long during Dolly’s drawn out visit to start asking..”When is it going to end?”
And we didn’t have near the amount of time some of Florida has suffered.
Prayers to Florida’s Riders of the Storm.
I think that by consensus we can say that the two year Florida drought is over. We are breezy with gusts as high as 40 mph, and steady heavy rain. Looks like the closest approach to Ocala will be before noon Friday.
Flying home on Saturday. ETA is 2 or so in Philly.
They were in Epcot tonight, for dinner in Mexico, wearing the poncho. She said today was the worst day so far as weather. They stayed at the house until dinner.
She’s not as scared or concerned as she was earlier.
LOL! Isn’t that the truth? I checked the site linked and it’s supposed to storm tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday. I think their park excursions are done now but who knows?
I’ll be happy when she sends a text after they land in philly.
Entrance
Mom's street
Happy to be leaving :)
And I've been saying I will not participate in this storm. Well I guess Fay didn't get the memo. It's been raining solid here and I'm just wishing this thing would move west already and take the rain with it.
It is moving N. at 5 mph! GOODY.....
I think I’d rather have a Charlie. He was a PITA but he didn’t waste anytime getting out of here :)
Thanx for the ping NN.
Fay has pretty much gone her way now and all I got to say is Vaya con Dios - bitchi
Yes it is so green! I have not been to the Mountains in a couple of years so I have not seen the changes due to the drought.
As with this fickle Fay’s drenching of some drought stricken areas of Florida (previously drought stricken.....) I am sure eventually there will be a storm that goes up through your area and through Western NC and brings the much needed rain.
Who knows? As silly as Fay has been behaving, maybe she’ll still make it up there?
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