earned the name Fay.
Floridians--stay alert...
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Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Watching! 8+)
Floridians--stay alert...
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Thanks for the update, NN!
The NHC has become wishcasters instead of forecasters. So desperate are they to have a named storm, they went ahead and issued a name before it meets their own definition of a TD - namely a low-level circulation. Has Bastardi gone to work for the NHC?
“....The NHC has become wishcasters instead of forecasters. So desperate are they to have a named storm, they went ahead and issued a name before it meets their own definition of a TD...”
Actually the poster of this thread jumped the gun. The NHC website has not made such announcement.
Correct. Pico Duarte on Santo Domingo is about 10,000 feet high. Also the storm tracks take it over Cuba which has mountains in Oriente province. This storm might hit Florida but I don't see how it can build up much power over those mountains.
Everything I have read and heard about this storm has bewildered the experts. This system has had excellent presentation for the past day. Having lived through a storm that was overlooked/ignored shortly after 9-11-2001, I would much prefer the watches and warnings associated with the upgrade.
I had a girlfriend in HS named Fay. They don’t name girls with names like that anymore..................
Do you want to make a correction to your post now? Or would you prefer to wait until 5:01PM ET...your choice.
I’ve been following Wunderground the past few days, too. Some of those folks want it so bad, it’s ridiculous.
It may turn into a TS or a TD, but it ain’t there yet, according to the NHC’s own rules. If they want to have flexible rules to accommodate Joe Bastardi wannabes, then all they have to do is say so.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 15, 2008
...Tropical Storm Fay forms...sixth Atlantic storm of the season...
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that the low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a
tropical storm as it moved into the eastern Dominican Republic.
At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic
has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic for
the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the South
Coast east of San Pedro de macoris. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from gonaives
northward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago
de Cuba...and Granma.
At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
tropical storm watch for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 35
miles... 55 km...east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and
about 395 miles...635 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general
motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track...the center of Fay will cross
Hispaniola tonight and Saturday...and pass near or over eastern
Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly over water to the north and east of the center.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the
warning area in areas of onshore flow.
Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba...with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...18.5 N...69.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Oh well, the storm track comes right over my area in the Lower Fl. Keys. The models have it coming right up from Cuba, so not much time over open water to strengthen.
We can sure use the damn rain. This is the driest “rainy season” I have seen in 32 years of living in the Keys.
I’m running down to the beach this weekend to clean up and get ready for the September storms.
I’ve been watching this all day; it dumped 2.00 inches on PR overnight and is moving rather steadily but looks like it’s got a lot of ground to cover and little chance of getting back over open warm waters to fully develop.
How fey.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have a thunderstorm named after you?
BTW, when I was in meteorology we called those guys forcecasters.
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