Tropical Storm Fay

NOAA/NHC ^ | 15 August 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[nwctwx]

It’s definately showing the typical north then northeast swing, but it doesn’t have much ne movement till after landfall. The overall trend has been west though, so it’s still possible we see the landfall point shift more west in the short term as well.. Though, if the center survives and moves off Hispaniola on the northern end of the island the western trends may stop or reverse. Conditions will be very favorable once in the Gulf should this make it there, so it will be interesting to see where it ends up in the next 24 hours.

[Tax-chick]

Best wishes to your son! Nothing Boy Scouts like better than Severe Weather :-).

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Well we knew it was coming and here it is. The thing is most people aren’t informed yet, and they are heading to the beach. By the time they get home Sunday and check on the weather Monday they won’t have much time to watch out.

[grey_whiskers]

Thanks for the encouraging news -- I'm a n00b at this kind of thing.

Cheers!

[grey_whiskers]

Thank you v. much!

[Tax-chick]

Seriously, as a parent, I know you must be going to pieces (or your wife is), but when the boys make it home, they’ll appreciate it precisely in correlation to how much danger they were in.

[nwctwx]

heat content map:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008227at.jpg

note if Fay can stay south of Cuba she will go over the higest heat potential in the whole basin. that coupled with favorable environment would surely lead to explosive development.

[clintonh8r]

If it follows the projected track the mountains in Cuba should break it up pretty well, or at least keep it from developing much until it breaks out into the Gulf.

[nwctwx]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 15, 2008

we know that the center of Fay is somewhere over Hispaniola and the
immediate unknown is how much of Fay will emerge over the Caribbean
waters in about 12 hour or so. By looking at the impressive
satellite presentation with deep convection...outflow in all
quadrants and the steady westward motion...it is fair to assume
that Fay could survive the high mountains of Hispaniola and
move ...although weaker...over the Gulf of gonave Saturday morning.
If so...a new process of intensification should begin since the
shear is light and the waters are very warm south of Cuba. Only
the interaction with the high terrain of eastern Cuba would impede
strengthening. In fact...most of the intensity guidance suggests
strengthening with the HWRF being the most aggressive...making Fay
a strong hurricane south of Cuba and even a stronger one over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico after crossing Cuba. The official forecast
is more conservative and calls for a gradual strengthening but
shows a little more intensification than the previous forecast
simply because Fay is expected to stay longer over water in this
forecast.

Because we do not know where the center is...the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate of the initial motion using
continuity and the motion of the overall cloud mass is 275 degrees
at 12 knots. Fay is forecast to move on this general track for
the next day or so around the subtropical ridge centered over the
western Atlantic. But in 2 or 3 days...a mid-level trough is
forecast to reach the Gulf of Mexico eroding the ridge. This
pattern should force Fay to take a more northwesterly and
north-northwesterly track across central Cuba and the extreme
eastern Gulf of Mexico. One should mention here that in
general...most of the guidance has shifted westward and the
official forecast is on the eastern edge of the envelope. Before I
am committed to shift the track farther west...I would rather wait
to see if guidance becomes more stable from one run to the next.

In summary...both official forecast and guidance show an
intensifying tropical cyclone moving across central Cuba and into
the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. We must pay very close
attention to the evolution of this tropical cyclone.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/0300z 18.7n 70.8w 40 kt
12hr VT 16/1200z 18.8n 72.9w 35 kt
24hr VT 17/0000z 19.3n 75.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 17/1200z 20.0n 77.8w 50 kt...near coast of Cuba
48hr VT 18/0000z 21.0n 79.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 19/0000z 24.0n 81.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 20/0000z 27.5n 83.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 21/0000z 31.0n 84.0w 40 kt...inland

[nwctwx]

reading between the lines, this is a pretty ominous discussion from the NHC tonight.

[Aquamarine]

Maybe the feeder bands will make it to north Georgia, we’re in a severe drought.

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

Me too, NN - storms with “F” = Fran, Floyd.

Let Fay just bring some much needed rain and that will be just “F”ine. But that’s it!

Stay away, Fay, if you bring those winds and tornadoes!

Thanks for keeping us posted.

Also, I thought I saw that there is a second TD or Wave behind Fay in the Atlantic?

[NautiNurse]

reading between the lines, this is a pretty ominous discussion from the NHC tonight.

A hurricane at my door Tuesday night is ominous. If this track holds, there will be a whole lot of coastal folks needing to evacuate.

[NautiNurse]

	Public Information Statement
Statement as of 9:49 PM EDT on August 15, 2008 ... All persons in west central and southwest Florida should monitor the latest tropical weather information... The low pressure area over Hispaniola has developed into Tropical Storm Fay... which continues to move west. Computer models suggest that Fay could pose a threat to southwest and west central Florida early next week. However... there is a very high level of uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of the system as it moves away from Hispaniola and approaches Cuba over the weekend. As a result... residents and visitors of west central and southwest Florida are encouraged to keep a close watch on this system throughout the upcoming weekend. This is a good time for residents to go over their hurricane plans. Visitors to Florida are encouraged to read up on initial preparedness actions that may needed. The following are basic suggested actions that should be taken at this time: Check batteries for radios and flashlights... drinking water... canned or dried food... first aid supplies and prescription medicine. Have a sufficient supply of Cash as access to credit cards and automated Cash machines may not be available without power. Check fuel levels on automobiles... generators and chain saws. Make initial plans to determine where you will likely be in case of an approaching storm. Check whether you live in an evacuation zone. For the latest information regarding Fay... please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... as well as information from local government officials and media outlets. You can also monitor the latest statements... as well as possible watches and warnings... from the National Weather Service office in Ruskin on the web at weather.Gov/tampabay. Information from the National Hurricane Center can be found on weather.Gov by clicking on the hurricanes link.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

My guess is that west central Florida is greater Tampa/St. Pete plus Sarasota. Getting a little close for comfort. Of course Ocala is one of the safest places on the peninsula.

[Alamo-Girl]

I join in prayer for your son and all the others in his group!

[NautiNurse]

We’re in a mandatory evacuation zone in So. Tampa Bay. Looks like a busy weekend.

[nwctwx]

0z early models kept going west, and the GFS seems to be coming in with a storm through the yucatan channel. NHC mentioned their track is now on eastern edge of model runs, but they wanted to stay somewhat consistent—especially without a real center fix.

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

Local weather report (NBC 17 Durham NC) showed how far west the computer models are now tracking thie storm - up the west coast of FL and going inland over FL panhandle then up into Ga, Alabama - and I hope - Western NC where we really need the rain!

[rdl6989]

Would that not be Cat 4 (926 mb)?