border. A tropical storm watch is issued from west of the MS/AL
border to the mouth of the Mississippi River. This watch does not
include Lake Pontchartrain or the city of New Orleans.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Hi blam, how is it over there? We aren’t too bad yet, prediction is around midnight to worsen
Fay is firing up some strong convection this evening across Dothan and Panama City.
So the fourth landfall is expected in the early morning as I understand it? If Fay stays a little south it will go into the Gulf again, then make a FIFTH landfall someplace west along the coast?
Anything is possible with the Little Storm That Could.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 22, 2008
...Fay centered over water and slightly stronger...
...Heavy rains continue over northern Florida and southern
Georgia...
at 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf
Coast of Florida from Aripeka northward to Suwanee River has been
discontinued...and the tropical storm watch from west of
Destin to the Mississippi/Alabama border has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect
for the northeastern Gulf Coast from Suwanee River Florida westward
to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
At 1100 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch is issued from west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
This watch does not include Lake Pontchartrain or the city of New
Orleans. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.7 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 50
miles... 80 km...south of Tallahassee Florida and about 50 miles...
75 km...east of Apalachicola Florida.
Fay is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days...taking Fay near or over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
coast on Saturday and Sunday.
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and WSR-88D
velocities indicate that maximum sustained winds have slightly
increased and are now near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Fay is forecast to remain a tropical storm into Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150
km...mainly to the south from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is
still possible along the East Coast of Florida and Georgia to the
northeast of the center of Fay. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4
feet above normal tide levels is also possible in the warning area
along the Florida Gulf Coast in areas of onshore winds.
Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches across the northern Florida Peninsula...the Florida
Panhandle...southern Georgia...Southern Alabama...and southern
Mississippi...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over
central and southern Florida in outer rain bands associated with
Fay. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible
over coastal southern South Carolina. Isolated storm total
rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 inches have been observed with Fay
across portions of the east-central coast of Florida.
Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Saturday in portions of
northern Florida...southern Georgia...and southern Alabama.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...29.7 N...84.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
How about it bending southwest into the Gulf, charging up to Cat 3 Hurricane, then swinging east into the Florida Suncoast?
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 30
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 22, 2008
the center of Fay crossed the coast of The Big Bend area of Florida
near Keaton Beach at about 2200 UTC...emerging over Apalachee Bay
in the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation center
itself is not especially well-defined in radar imagery...but a
potent narrow band of convection has persisted over water in the
southern semicircle. Flight-level and SFMR data from an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft suggest the maximum winds in this band are
about 45 kt...so that is the initial intensity. An expansive rain
shield extends well inland to the north of the center...and while
winds are gusty in those regions...sustained winds of tropical
storm force do not appear to be occurring inland.
The aircraft fixes lead to an initial motion estimate of 270/7...as
Fay lumbers along to the west along the southern periphery of a
mid-level ridge over the northeastern United States. That ridge
should continue to force Fay westward for the next couple of days
at speed similar to that currently observed. As a result...Fay
will be skirting the Florida Panhandle...Alabama...and Mississippi
coasts during the next couple of days. The various track models
are in quite good agreement on this scenario through about 48
hours. Thereafter...model guidance forecasts the steering currents
to collapse again...and various solutions ensue regarding where and
how fast a weakening Fay will go. Most of the models show
relatively little net motion on days 3 through 5. The new official
track forecast only shows a slow Bend to the north by the end of
the forecast period.
The center of Fay will be near or over water during the next 48
hours or so...while atmospheric conditions remain conducive to
support a tropical storm. There is no obvious reason to forecast
weakening during the next day or so...given that Fay will remain
near the coast and appears not likely to change much in structure.
Beyond 24 hours...increasing land interaction and a gradual ramping
up of vertical wind shear should induce a weakening trend. The new
official forecast of Fay to remain a tropical storm for the next
couple of days requires a westward extension of the coastal watches
and warnings.
Regardless of its exact track...Fay will be moving rather slowly
during the next several days...posing a significant heavy rainfall
and flood hazard to a very large area.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/0300z 29.7n 84.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 23/1200z 29.8n 85.3w 45 kt...near coast
24hr VT 24/0000z 30.1n 86.9w 45 kt...over water
36hr VT 24/1200z 30.5n 88.5w 40 kt...near coast
48hr VT 25/0000z 30.5n 90.0w 35 kt...inland
72hr VT 26/0000z 30.5n 91.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 27/0000z 31.5n 91.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 28/0000z 33.0n 90.5w 25 kt...remnant low
$$
forecaster Knabb
I’m in Columbus, GA at the moment - expecting Fay all weekend.
City of Melbourne has 200 homes condemned as uninhabitable due to flooding.
If the rumors are true about Joe Biden getting the nod, we also have to issue a flying lamp and ashtray watch for Westchester Co. NY
LOL
If you get the chance, watch the documentary, The Little Zoo That Could . It is unbelieveable the effort these people made to save the animals that were in a zoo on the east side of Mobile Bay. They were clobbered by hurricane Ivan, Dennis and Katrina. Excellent, excellent heartwarming stories.
Nothing going on here. Still a steady, light breeze from the north.
Rescue crews are sent to the Florida city of Astor in Lake County per Ch. 13 here in Orlando. They are afraid the St. Johns River will flood there. They are concerned all the water from other areas will flow into that area and flood. This river may not reach its highest levels until next week.
Bump Dat...
West Mobile, here...
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 23, 2008
...Center of Fay currently inland over the central Florida
Panhandle...warnings and watches extended westward...
at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
westward along the northern Gulf Coast to the mouth of the Pearl
River. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the
northeastern Gulf Coast from Suwanee River Florida westward
to the mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...a tropical storm watch is in effect west of
the mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle Louisiana...including
metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 29.9 north...longitude 84.9 west or over the Florida
Panhandle about 15 miles...25 km...north-northeast of Apalachicola
Florida and about 50 miles...85 km...east-southeast of Panama City
Florida.
Fay is moving toward the west near 7 mph...11 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.
On the forecast track...Fay will be near or over the Gulf Coast of
the western Florida Panhandle today and tonight...and near or over
the Gulf Coast of Mississippi and Alabama on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 to
48 hours...and Fay is expected to remain a tropical storm into
Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
mainly to the south of the center. Bainbridge Georgia recently
reported a wind gust of 43 mph...69 km/hr.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
possible in the warning area in areas of onshore winds. Above
normal tides along the Georgia and Florida Atlantic coast should
subside today.
Over the next two days...Fay is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across the western portion of the
northern Florida Peninsula...the Florida Panhandle...southwestern
Georgia...and the southern half of both Mississippi and Alabama...
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Additional
rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight in portions of
northern Florida...southern Georgia...and southern Alabama.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...29.9 N...84.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 30
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 22, 2008
the center of Fay crossed the coast of The Big Bend area of Florida
near Keaton Beach at about 2200 UTC...emerging over Apalachee Bay
in the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation center
itself is not especially well-defined in radar imagery...but a
potent narrow band of convection has persisted over water in the
southern semicircle. Flight-level and SFMR data from an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft suggest the maximum winds in this band are
about 45 kt...so that is the initial intensity. An expansive rain
shield extends well inland to the north of the center...and while
winds are gusty in those regions...sustained winds of tropical
storm force do not appear to be occurring inland.
The aircraft fixes lead to an initial motion estimate of 270/7...as
Fay lumbers along to the west along the southern periphery of a
mid-level ridge over the northeastern United States. That ridge
should continue to force Fay westward for the next couple of days
at speed similar to that currently observed. As a result...Fay
will be skirting the Florida Panhandle...Alabama...and Mississippi
coasts during the next couple of days. The various track models
are in quite good agreement on this scenario through about 48
hours. Thereafter...model guidance forecasts the steering currents
to collapse again...and various solutions ensue regarding where and
how fast a weakening Fay will go. Most of the models show
relatively little net motion on days 3 through 5. The new official
track forecast only shows a slow Bend to the north by the end of
the forecast period.
The center of Fay will be near or over water during the next 48
hours or so...while atmospheric conditions remain conducive to
support a tropical storm. There is no obvious reason to forecast
weakening during the next day or so...given that Fay will remain
near the coast and appears not likely to change much in structure.
Beyond 24 hours...increasing land interaction and a gradual ramping
up of vertical wind shear should induce a weakening trend. The new
official forecast of Fay to remain a tropical storm for the next
couple of days requires a westward extension of the coastal watches
and warnings.
Regardless of its exact track...Fay will be moving rather slowly
during the next several days...posing a significant heavy rainfall
and flood hazard to a very large area.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/0300z 29.7n 84.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 23/1200z 29.8n 85.3w 45 kt...near coast
24hr VT 24/0000z 30.1n 86.9w 45 kt...over water
36hr VT 24/1200z 30.5n 88.5w 40 kt...near coast
48hr VT 25/0000z 30.5n 90.0w 35 kt...inland
72hr VT 26/0000z 30.5n 91.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 27/0000z 31.5n 91.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 28/0000z 33.0n 90.5w 25 kt...remnant low
$$
forecaster Knabb
So Fay has made its 4th landfall, and is predicted to make a 5th landfall, I noticed that the thread was still not in the Mississippi topic, so I put it there. Maybe it will eventually have to be added to the Louisiana topic. The steady rain will end in Ocala soon, the wind advisory has ended. That flooding in Astor mentioned upthread might flood the FL 40 bridge between Astor Park in Marion County and Astor, dividing Eastern from Western Florida.
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