Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
It’s marvelous having this real time imaging of the storm; since it is still rather new it’s hard to compare to older storms but I can’t remember a storm staying so concentrated over land before; all the models have it crossing into Cuba and exiting only for a short time over warm, regenerative waters before making landfall again in the Keys and the mainland.
Bunches of rain, at least.
Two important notes there... westward motion continues, despite predictions of more northerly component beginning. The storm has slowed... allowing more time to re-organize near that super heat content. I think chances are getting better of seeing some real intensification south of Cuba.
the last city engineer was degreed in chemical engineering ... it's a rather corrupt little island and it competes for corruption with the rest of the county
.
.
problems galore ,you are right.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 16, 2008
...Fay expected to strengthen on Sunday...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Cuba from the
province of Sancti Spiritus eastward to Guantanamo...and also for
Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Cuba from the province of
Matanzas eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
Jamaica...and the Cayman Islands.
At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has
been discontinued.
Interests in western Cuba...the Florida Keys...and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 76.3 west or about 175
miles...280 km...southeast of Camaguey Cuba and about 100 miles...
165 km...north-northeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track...the center of Fay will continue to move near or over the
southern coast of eastern and central Cuba Sunday...and will be
near or over western Cuba Sunday night or Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
Fay could be approaching hurricane strength as it nears western
Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center. Guantanamo Cuba recently reported sustained winds
of 44 mph...71 km/hr with gusts to 52 mph...83 km/hr. Rainbands
associated with Fay are affecting the Bahamas and are approaching
the Florida Straits.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Tides of 1 to 3 feet feet above normal can be expected in the
warning area in areas of onshore flow.
Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over Haiti...eastern and central Cuba...Jamaica...and
the northern Cayman Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
possible over Grand Cayman and over the central and southeastern
Bahamas.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...19.4 N...76.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 16, 2008
a reconnaissance plane spent several hours earlier this afternoon in
Fay and found that the cyclone has a well defined circulation with
the area of strongest winds to the north and east of the center. In
fact...Guantanamo Cuba recently reported sustained winds of 38
knots and gusts to 45 knots. Initial intensity is set at 40 knots.
Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is gradually
becoming better organized after being disrupted by the high
mountains of Hispaniola. Fay has a large envelope with plenty of
convection and well-established upper-level outflow. Surrounding
surface pressures have fallen on the order of 5 mb since
yesterday...and in general this is an indication of development.
All these factors suggest strengthening. However...the rate of
intensification depends on how close to land the center moves...and
if Fay is able to develop an inner core. At this time...the
official forecast calls for a modest strengthening. If Fay remains
over water it could reach the coast of central Cuba as
a hurricane...but this is most likely to occur in the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico as indicated in the forecast. It is interesting to
note that the HWRF and GFDL models are no longer indicating an
aggressive intensification in the most recent run.
Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and data from Cuban radars
indicate that Fay is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 12
knots. Fay is already reaching the southwestern edge of the
subtropical ridge so a gradual turn to the northwest is expected
during the next 24 to 36 hours. This will be followed by a
northward turn around the western edge of the high. On this
track...Fay should be moving very close to the South Coast of Cuba
for the next day or so...and then it should move northward over the
extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico very near or over the west Florida
coast. Track guidance has not changed significantly...and most of
the models are in extremely good agreement for the next 48 hours.
The spread becomes much larger beyond 48 hours with some models
bringing Fay over Florida and others keeping it over the Gulf of
Mexico. The official forecast is on top of the consensus...which is
in the middle of the guidance envelope.
On this track...watches may be required early Sunday for portions of
South Florida and the Florida Keys.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/0300z 19.4n 76.3w 40 kt
12hr VT 17/1200z 20.0n 78.0w 45 kt
24hr VT 18/0000z 21.5n 80.0w 55 kt
36hr VT 18/1200z 23.0n 81.5w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 19/0000z 24.5n 82.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 20/0000z 27.8n 82.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 21/0000z 31.0n 82.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 22/0000z 34.0n 82.5w 25 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Avila
Thanks NN,Ive got half the house shuttered, my wife said it’s too dark. I have to wait for the other half.
My plan is to close one shutter take a sip, close another take another sip, etc etc.
Take the plunge and treat yourself to kevlar hurricane screens for at least a few of the windows. They are a tad expensive, but you can see through them--and they are easy to put up/take down. I got terribly depressed with the windows shuttered for weeks during 2004.
I've pinged Elle Bee, 'cause that's who sold me on them. An excellent investment.
Yes, we interrupted hurricane prep schedule to watch the Olympics tonight. Phelps is certainly a humble gentleman. I got chills watching the Phelps Phans in Raven’s Stadium in Baltimore.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 17, 2008
...Fay strengthens slightly as it turns west-northwestward...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Cuba from the
province of Sancti Spiritus eastward to Guantanamo...and also for
Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Cuba from the province of
Matanzas eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
Jamaica...and the Cayman Islands.
Interests in western Cuba...the Florida Keys...and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 19.6 north...longitude 76.8 west or about 140
miles...230 km...south-southeast of Camaguey Cuba.
Fay is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...20 km/hr. A
turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
within the next 24 hours...with a turn to the north-northwest
expected on Monday. Fay is expected to be moving very near the
South Coast of Cuba today...cross central Cuba Sunday night...and
emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or Florida Straits on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
Fay could be near hurricane strength when it reaches central
Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Tides of 1 to 3 feet feet above normal can be expected in the
warning area in areas of onshore flow.
Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over Haiti...eastern and central Cuba...Jamaica...and
the northern Cayman Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
possible over Grand Cayman and over the central and southeastern
Bahamas.
Repeating the 200 am EDT position...19.6 N...76.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 500 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
NHC advisory 6a puts the wind at 50 mph.
I am in Ocala, which is due to get nearly a direct (inland) hit.
Current track indicates a direct hit here too. I was hoping to get some rest...then I noted the tide schedule for Tuesday. It’s a remarkably high tide following the full moon. High tides for Sarasota to Tampa Bay will be Tuesday afternoon.
bump
Now that that's off my chest, this trajectory, right up the West coast, is pretty unnerving. I mean, Wilma came at us from the West as well. Of course Wilma fed off the GOM before it arrived, but it was estimated at Cat 1, too, and look what we got.
I am truly hopeful the storm breaks up severely over Cuba's mountains.
Please be safe everyone. Thanks for the thread, Nautinurse, I'll be looking for followups. I'm still deciding whether to go fill my generator fuel supply or wait another day. I hate storing noxious substances.
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