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TS Gustav & TS Hanna
NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/28/2008 8:25:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav
Hanna


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Buoy Data: Western Caribbean
                  FL and East GOM
                  Western GOM
East Caribbean
West Atlantic
Florida

Forecast Models

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2008dncconvention; 2008rncconvention; gustav; hannah; hurricane; predictions; tropical
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Here we go...please note the SFWMD site is already running slowly. Limit graphics to ~50KB and please do not post animated graphics.
1 posted on 08/28/2008 8:25:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse
New thread...for both Gustav and Hanna.

Gustav is nearing hurricane strength again. Winds 70 mph.
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica.

Hanna poses a threat to the U.S. Atlantic coast.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

2 posted on 08/28/2008 8:28:48 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

Gustav turned unexpectedly turned south, I am not an expert but it could turn into another Gilbert that devastated the Yucatan in 88.


3 posted on 08/28/2008 8:29:46 AM PDT by DallasBiff
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks. This will be easier to follow. I don’t know if the “tub” will keep them all warm though. The GOM is going to get crowded.


4 posted on 08/28/2008 8:33:16 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: DallasBiff

We’ll have to wait and see if the forecast models adjust for the change.


5 posted on 08/28/2008 8:35:59 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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bump to ping page.


6 posted on 08/28/2008 8:36:19 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: CindyDawg

The models are all over the place for Hanna.


7 posted on 08/28/2008 8:37:16 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

Im still kinda creeped out on how that other TD formed in SW GOM so quickly.


8 posted on 08/28/2008 8:37:38 AM PDT by L,TOWM (If the GOP is this desperate to lose, who am I to stand in their way?)
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To: NautiNurse

9 posted on 08/28/2008 8:38:02 AM PDT by xcamel (Conservatives start smart, and get rich, liberals start rich, and get stupid.)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for all you do, NN.
I’ll be watching these threads closely today!

*wary in Baton Rouge*


10 posted on 08/28/2008 8:41:31 AM PDT by trillabodilla (Jesus Saves)
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To: NautiNurse

sigh!


11 posted on 08/28/2008 8:41:54 AM PDT by Rightly Biased (Courage is not the lack of fear it is acting in spite of it<><)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; ...
New thread for both Gustav & Hanna.

TS Gustav is near hurricane strength again.
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. Winds 70 mph.

TS Hanna is in the Atlantic, with potential threat
to the U.S. coast.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

12 posted on 08/28/2008 8:51:25 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanx for thing - bumpity bump


13 posted on 08/28/2008 8:53:10 AM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen (Seinfeld was a show about nothing - so is Obama.)
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To: eastforker

Silly me...I forgot the ping list first time around.


14 posted on 08/28/2008 8:56:59 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

bump


15 posted on 08/28/2008 8:57:58 AM PDT by Deaf Smith
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To: NautiNurse

Well it’s not like you were busy or something:>)


16 posted on 08/28/2008 8:59:58 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: WorkerbeeCitizen; NautiNurse

Ok- here’s the deal- send Gustav to Mexico and Hannah to somewhere in the Atlantic..far away from land...


17 posted on 08/28/2008 9:02:04 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: NautiNurse

Third system could be developing in Bay of Campeche right now.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true


18 posted on 08/28/2008 9:02:06 AM PDT by LSUfan
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To: DallasBiff
Some explanation is needed for the robustness of the forecast at this point; start with this explanation from the Net:

"What is a short wave? No more than about half as long as a long wave. Short waves move more quickly, though. They travel eastward down the long wave and show up as a bump on the larger trend. This is where we label most of our upper troughs and ridges.

We also find that they are tied to maximum and minimum values in vorticity, with our troughs associated with higher vorticity and ridges with minimum vorticity. In this way, a short wave trough commonly indicates an axis of maximum vorticity. So what? This explanation ties in with weather in this fashion: air rises and clouds form ahead of a trough, while it descends and clouds dissipate in front of a ridge.

In fact vertical motion is responsible for this cloud co-relation. Also, these relations assist analysts in finding world map latitude longitude - troughs and ridges - by comparing to a satellite photo, especially where there is little other data to use, such as over the oceans."

Now look at the current 500MB map (commonly and historically used as a major tool in steering influences for hurricane development and movement)

An imaginary line drawn through the dips in the lines indicate the trough lines and one drawn along the upward peaks or bends show the ridges. The two to watch here is the trough from Canada to New Mexico and the ridge from the Atlantic coast through Floria toward Cuba's west end. The trough will draw Gustav up into the Gulf at the same time the ridge will force it to stay west of Florida's east coast. Right now they are betting on the high moving slowly north eastward while the trough moves generaly eastward and like you would push the bottom of a squeeze bottle to force the contents upward, Gustav will be pushed along the forecast path.

19 posted on 08/28/2008 9:04:44 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: LSUfan

Here’s a better shot, invest 96


20 posted on 08/28/2008 9:04:51 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: LSUfan

I don’t think three storms can fit into one browser window. Will have to get creative if that happens.


21 posted on 08/28/2008 9:05:36 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: eastforker

Damn, forgot the linkhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


22 posted on 08/28/2008 9:06:19 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: eastforker

NHC rates it low probability at this point.


23 posted on 08/28/2008 9:10:15 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: Old Professer

Thanks much for the detail. Good info.


24 posted on 08/28/2008 9:12:25 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse; Owl_Eagle; Sam's Army; Darksheare; pissant; najida; r-q-tek86; blackie; ...
PING to anyone who may be in the area or have friends and family there.....

NOLA and Fla are in for it again....

25 posted on 08/28/2008 9:12:46 AM PDT by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Some days it is not worth chewing through the restraints.)
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To: NautiNurse

Well yea but they all start off low, still, even if local it is still impressive thunder storm.


26 posted on 08/28/2008 9:13:22 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: Jersey Republican Biker Chick
When Florida is an avocado sandwich...


27 posted on 08/28/2008 9:15:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

28 posted on 08/28/2008 9:19:02 AM PDT by Nick Danger (www.swiftvets.com)
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To: NautiNurse

One note: where the 500MB map shows the ridge lines terminating in a stairstep fashion it simply indicates that there is no data available since there are no stations or aircraft deployed to do soundings - radiosonde, dropsonde, rocketsonde, etc.


29 posted on 08/28/2008 9:19:23 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: NautiNurse

this should be exciting. You see, we are moving next week. From central Texas to northern Virginia. I do hope that we will be able to find hotels to stay at along I 20 that have vacancy for us and allow pets. Oh dear.

The father in law who lives outside of New Orleans has already said that if evac orders come, he’s got his suv gassed and loaded, and he’s headed to northern VA without a backward glance.

lol this is going to be an eventful week or so. :)


30 posted on 08/28/2008 9:22:24 AM PDT by Cailleach
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To: Nick Danger
LOL--Reminds me of this one from 2004:


31 posted on 08/28/2008 9:25:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: Old Professer

Thanks for the update.


32 posted on 08/28/2008 9:26:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse
It's a pincer maneuver on FL!
33 posted on 08/28/2008 9:28:06 AM PDT by Sax (this idea was not a practical deterrent, for reasons which, at this moment, must be all too obvious)
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To: Cailleach

Best wishes for a smooth and uneventful move! Glad to hear your fil is prepared to bug out if necessary.


34 posted on 08/28/2008 9:31:05 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse
That is never a good thing to be....an avocado sandwich that is...ha ha

They are just getting over the Fay flooding and now this.....*sigh*

35 posted on 08/28/2008 9:32:06 AM PDT by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Some days it is not worth chewing through the restraints.)
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To: NautiNurse

You’re a good woman.


36 posted on 08/28/2008 9:32:37 AM PDT by Gabz (You said WHAT?????????)
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To: Nick Danger

ROTFLMAO.....that is an awesome graphic.


37 posted on 08/28/2008 9:33:01 AM PDT by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Some days it is not worth chewing through the restraints.)
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To: LSUfan

A forecast model yesterday was showing lots of storms possibly going up all at the same time....didn’t really buy it, but maybe it will happen.


38 posted on 08/28/2008 9:34:13 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Sax
Or the Malachi (sp) crunch. :o)

Yes, an old Happy Days reference...I've been waiting to use it somewhere...ha ha ha

39 posted on 08/28/2008 9:35:21 AM PDT by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Some days it is not worth chewing through the restraints.)
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To: Gabz

I was cross-eyed posting all the graphic links in duplicate. I think it sprained my feeble brain.


40 posted on 08/28/2008 9:36:32 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

where can i find the current models for hanna...i live in florida east coast....


41 posted on 08/28/2008 9:37:28 AM PDT by tatsinfla
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To: tatsinfla

At the top of this thread, between the two tables is a link. Once you get to the site, you want Storm 08.


42 posted on 08/28/2008 9:38:59 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: Jersey Republican Biker Chick

Sounds vaguely familiar, was that from the demolition derby?


43 posted on 08/28/2008 9:43:09 AM PDT by Sax (this idea was not a practical deterrent, for reasons which, at this moment, must be all too obvious)
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To: Nick Danger
I always thought she was a bag of wind...
44 posted on 08/28/2008 9:43:23 AM PDT by fredhead (4-cylinder, air cooled, horizontally opposed......THE REAL VW!!!)
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To: NautiNurse

I love the “avacado sandwich” -—— what a great comment!

I wish my aunt in Sarasota didn’t have a problem with getting pix from me or else I would send that to her.

I dare not send her a link to FR -— over the years I have learned to not discuss politics with her. I love her dearly and she is a wonderful woman, but our politics are absolute polar opposites.


45 posted on 08/28/2008 9:43:33 AM PDT by Gabz (You said WHAT?????????)
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To: NautiNurse

thanks got it...shows only one hitting fla around ft laud maybe...i like all the other tracks....lol..


46 posted on 08/28/2008 9:44:20 AM PDT by tatsinfla
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To: Sax

Yes it was from the demolition derby.


47 posted on 08/28/2008 9:47:39 AM PDT by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (Some days it is not worth chewing through the restraints.)
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To: tatsinfla

Too early to rely on the divergent models.


48 posted on 08/28/2008 9:48:10 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

I strongly suspect Karl Rove is behind this.


49 posted on 08/28/2008 9:49:00 AM PDT by Allegra (It's above my pay grade.)
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To: NautiNurse

Nauti, it’s good to see you back as our intrepid reporter of
tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay safe, everyone!


50 posted on 08/28/2008 9:49:33 AM PDT by Palladin (Obama: All stagecraft, no substance.)
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