TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav	Hanna
Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop	Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop
WV Satellite Image Loop	WV Image Loop
Public Advisory	Public Advisory
Discussion	Discussion
Buoy Data: Western Caribbean                   FL and East GOM                   Western GOM	East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida

Forecast Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

Here we go...please note the SFWMD site is already running slowly. Limit graphics to ~50KB and please do not post animated graphics.

[NautiNurse]

New thread...for both Gustav and Hanna.

Gustav is nearing hurricane strength again. Winds 70 mph.
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica.

Hanna poses a threat to the U.S. Atlantic coast.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[DallasBiff]

Gustav turned unexpectedly turned south, I am not an expert but it could turn into another Gilbert that devastated the Yucatan in 88.

[CindyDawg]

Thanks. This will be easier to follow. I don’t know if the “tub” will keep them all warm though. The GOM is going to get crowded.

[NautiNurse]

We’ll have to wait and see if the forecast models adjust for the change.

[eastforker]

bump to ping page.

[NautiNurse]

The models are all over the place for Hanna.

[L,TOWM]

Im still kinda creeped out on how that other TD formed in SW GOM so quickly.

[xcamel]

[trillabodilla]

Thanks for all you do, NN.
I’ll be watching these threads closely today!

*wary in Baton Rouge*

[Rightly Biased]

sigh!

[NautiNurse]

New thread for both Gustav & Hanna.

TS Gustav is near hurricane strength again.
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. Winds 70 mph.

TS Hanna is in the Atlantic, with potential threat
to the U.S. coast.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Thanx for thing - bumpity bump

[NautiNurse]

Silly me...I forgot the ping list first time around.

[Deaf Smith]

bump

[eastforker]

Well it’s not like you were busy or something:>)

[SE Mom]

Ok- here’s the deal- send Gustav to Mexico and Hannah to somewhere in the Atlantic..far away from land...

[LSUfan]

Third system could be developing in Bay of Campeche right now.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

[Old Professer]

Some explanation is needed for the robustness of the forecast at this point; start with this explanation from the Net:

"What is a short wave? No more than about half as long as a long wave. Short waves move more quickly, though. They travel eastward down the long wave and show up as a bump on the larger trend. This is where we label most of our upper troughs and ridges.

We also find that they are tied to maximum and minimum values in vorticity, with our troughs associated with higher vorticity and ridges with minimum vorticity. In this way, a short wave trough commonly indicates an axis of maximum vorticity. So what? This explanation ties in with weather in this fashion: air rises and clouds form ahead of a trough, while it descends and clouds dissipate in front of a ridge.

In fact vertical motion is responsible for this cloud co-relation. Also, these relations assist analysts in finding world map latitude longitude - troughs and ridges - by comparing to a satellite photo, especially where there is little other data to use, such as over the oceans."

Now look at the current 500MB map (commonly and historically used as a major tool in steering influences for hurricane development and movement)

An imaginary line drawn through the dips in the lines indicate the trough lines and one drawn along the upward peaks or bends show the ridges. The two to watch here is the trough from Canada to New Mexico and the ridge from the Atlantic coast through Floria toward Cuba's west end. The trough will draw Gustav up into the Gulf at the same time the ridge will force it to stay west of Florida's east coast. Right now they are betting on the high moving slowly north eastward while the trough moves generaly eastward and like you would push the bottom of a squeeze bottle to force the contents upward, Gustav will be pushed along the forecast path.

[eastforker]

Here’s a better shot, invest 96