Posted on 09/06/2008 6:46:22 PM PDT by crusher
Palin/McCain’s Winning Coalition
Unlike many of my FR posts this one contains no satire.
I’ve been following national electoral politics since 1970 or so, and I often try to create models and frameworks to understand the dynamics of how elections are won and lost. One model I use as a tool suggests that the last 72 hours have created an unbeatable coalition for the Palin/McCain ticket. I now believe that unless it turns out that Saracuda is distributing cocaine and Russian sex slaves to the North Slope oil camps, the ticket will win comfortably, perhaps by as much as 10% in the popular vote.
I am not now and have never been a McCain fan. He is simply wrong on too many of the fundamentals. His “maverick” hype is simply a smoke screen for his being a cranky old man residing in a political party he despises. I honor and revere his service and sacrifice, but his ideas of governance, so clearly on display Thursday night, are little more than recycled Great Society collectivist drivel that has seemingly driven policy in the current White House.
Then along came the Palinator.
I honestly have no idea what fit of sensibility grabbed McCain, but regardless of the genesis it is a pick with the potential to transform American electoral politics. I figured, correctly, that the main impetus behind McCain’s pick would be the one to cause the most damage to the GOP establishment. Hence his infatuation with hard core lefty Lieberman to be his running mate. McCain is just a crotchety guy who loves sticking his thumb in the eyes of conservatives. My mistake was probably over analyzing this, but the result was exactly the same but in an opposite direction. Rather than torpedoing conservatives, McCain’s choice of Palin is most likely to cause heartburn to the MSM and the gelded fools running the GOP! Was that his real intention? Nothing in his past suggests it, but it will be the result.
Looking back over every single presidential and congressional election since 1970 there is a 100% correlation to the following construct: when blue-collar (conservative) “Reagan Democrat” Catholics and pro-life Evangelicals form an enthused coalition, the conservative candidate wins. Every time. When those two entities do not coalesce or are lukewarm to the candidate, the liberal wins. Every time. In the first instance, the passionate foot soldiers of the Right are able to help the conservative GOP candidate overcome the natural structural imbalances between the parties as the Dems control all the major institutions of the culture: the bureaucracy the dispenses goodies, the schools, the news establishment, etc. In the latter circumstance, the Evangelicals simply stay home and the blue-collar Catholics revert to their default Democrat habits in large enough numbers to guarantee conservative defeats.
Sarah changes everything. And she guarantees a GOP president being sworn in next January because she connects with blue-collar “Reagan Democrats” and Evangelicals like no one I have seen in recent years.
Barry Hussein has peaked, and it will be amusing to watch their increasing desperation in the coming weeks. I may even listen to Randi Rhodes and Stephanie Miller on the day after the election, just to hear the screeching banshees try to come to grips with the reality that their Messiah, whom they assumed would simply walk across the Potomac to the White House, was rejected by the electorate.
Now that will be entertainment.
Crusher 9/06/2008
Palin/Jindal 2012
Sorry. Traveled across the country last week. McLame is TOO old and TOO DC was most peoples opinion. Everyone loves Palin and dislikes McLiberal. Keep drinking the koolaid. Palin is sugar on a turd.
IMHO, the only conservatives who are not excited by the McCain/Palin ticket are the rabid anti-immigration ones.
We’ll put you down as undecided ...
Who put what in your kool aid? Clearly the speech and posture coming out of the Obama camp right now is one of defense ... not offense. He is not acting presidential but coming across in campaign appearances as a stuttering, hemming and hawing, whiny little boy. McCain is looking and acting younger with Palin on the stage, and she is drawing the best out of him. We may not win in a landslide .. but acting and talking like winners right now is starting to pay off. Zogby who skews high dem., is already tracking McCain slightly ahead. Pop some corn, and open another Coors light ... this is going to be too much fun!
these crowds show the excitement level for this ticket. I am sure most are mostly there for Palin, but they are the ticket together, and a vote for Palin is a vote for McCain. This post makes the case that the combination of the Maverick and the conservative woman appeal to such a broad number of voters that they are going to deliver huge turnout in November.
I've been following national politics since 1960 or so (worked with the Nixon campain in 1960) and with the selection of Palin, this is the most exciting presidential race I've seen since Nixon and Kennedy and Reagan and Carter. Obama must be defeated!
I really like and admire Palin and see her as the future of not only the Republican Party and the US, but it's McCain's presidential campaign now, with her as a second person. I'm not saying that we shouldn't promote Palin, but we should put her as a great addition to the McCain ticket, and not try to belittle McCain.
You can think or are motivated by Palin only, but this is not the way to go. Let's not be impatient and ruin the ticket. Palin will be much more stronger in 2012 (or 2016) with experiences as vice president than being a loser who tries to come back.
I think we should put down crass and ignorant as well.
I was at this rally. We got up at 6am, drove to the event before 7:30am. The line of cars went back for 2 miles in 4 directions. We had to walk 25 minutes to the line. The line was 2 miles long. I have been to KISS concerts and The Who which were shorter lines. It took over an hour to get to the event in the line. Finally we got inside around 9:45am, and we were FAR in the back of the large crowd. The count of tickets for the event EXCEEDED FIFTEEN THOUSAND!! And people were still trying to get tickets and get inside around 11am while the local candidates were speaking. Finally, they just began to let anyone in, even if they did not have a ticket. These photos do NOT do justice, as you cannot really judge the depth or width of the hanger space.
It’s looking good now, but its too early to make a call. 60 days is several lifetimes away. I hope the McCain-Palin team plays with the philosophy that they are behind. OTOH, maybe you know something that when revealed will seal the deal for McCain-Palin ticket?
0bama obviously has a serious problem with white, blue-collar “Reagan Democrats” in the Rust Belt. Joe Biden was chosen to appeal to them, not to shore up 0bama’s foreign policy cred — something only 0bama himself can do. The roll-out of Biden proves this. It was all about “blue-collar Joe from Scranton.”
McCain appeal to these people on his own. Palin is going to be used to turn out conservative turnout in small towns and rural areas, while McCain will run as an independent-minded maverick, going after the broad center reaching all the way into the Democrats’ deep base of non-ideological casual voters.
Rove’s strategy with Bush was all about turning out the base in very large numbers. McCain’s strategy looks like its shaping up to be a base+ model, with Palin bringing out the same Bush supporters in similar numbers, and McCain adding to that by taking votes directly from 0bama’s pool.
This is the McCain-Palin coalition as I see it.
A lot of us are living vicariously through the on-the-scene reporting including photos by freepers across the fruited plain as these rallies roll on.
Keep it up, all you freeper newshawks and newshens!
Leni
The 527s must now expose 0bama as a Communist agitator that he is. Where are the ads about Zer0bama’s heroes like Stalinist Frank Davis?
from your keyboard to God’s ears.
Only in the twilight zone.
Absolutely. That talk, however thrilling, could eventually serve 0bama well. The press is already looking to capitalize on it. Let’s just get Osatan clear of the Whitehouse, and thank God for McCain’s good sense and courage and leadership in choosing Palin for POTUS-in-training. They’re an incredible ticket. Let’s not screw this up!
McCain/Palin 2008
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