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Electoral Map shows Florida moved to toss-up (again)
9/21/08 | DRey

Posted on 09/21/2008 9:33:56 AM PDT by DRey

What changed recently, other than McCain doing very well in Florida, for RealClear to move Florida back to toss-up? Obama now ahead in electoral map.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5


TOPICS: Local News
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; electoral; fl2008; florida; mccainpalin; poll; swingstates

1 posted on 09/21/2008 9:33:57 AM PDT by DRey
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To: DRey

doesn’t make much sense to me. The polls they show all favor McCain. One is even. St Pete showed it even up today. Maybe with the movement nationally this week to The One, it moved it a tick or two back.


2 posted on 09/21/2008 9:38:13 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: DRey

We got our work cut out for us this week


3 posted on 09/21/2008 9:39:04 AM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.youtube.com/cafenetamerica)
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To: ilgipper

“The polls they show all favor McCain.”

Well, RealClear makes everything less than a 5 point spread a toss-up. What I don’t understand is what changed overnight? I don’t see any new polls to throw it less than 5 since the 18th. What changed?


4 posted on 09/21/2008 9:41:00 AM PDT by DRey
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To: DRey
From another thread, emphasizing how important FL is to Obama's quest:

I don't think the Obamessiah's dreaming. He's got a very tough battle ahead, but he could still win FL. Stand by over the next several days for some organization to trot out a poll showing FL as a dead heat.

Florida race still too close to call

Took even less time than I anticipated.

5 posted on 09/21/2008 9:45:21 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (On Free Republic PBD [political bipolar disorder] rules!)
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To: DRey
Obama/Biden 202 - 164 Solid/38 Leaning

McCain/Palin 189 - 163 Solid/26 Leaning

Toss Up 147 Let me know when Oprah is getting ready to sing. Im trying not to look till it's over.

6 posted on 09/21/2008 9:47:25 AM PDT by DogBarkTree (That sharp pain to the LibRat's groin is called the Palin Effect.)
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To: DRey

Total garbage...don’t believe it.

Florida is locked for McCain and the reason is Amendment 2 which will be on the Florida ballot. What is Amendment 2?

Define marraige between a man and a woman - yes or no.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Florida_Marriage_Amendment_%282008%29

The Florida Marriage Amendment, also known as Proposition 2 and The Marriage Protection Amendment, is a proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage in Florida. The proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution will appear on the November 4, 2008 ballot in Florida. In order to pass, the amendment will require a 60% majority of those voting in the election. As of September 8th, 2008, a slight majority of Floridians support the ballot measure (55%), but not 60%; 41% oppose the measure.[1]

The amendment as written includes a clause prohibiting judges from overturning the law. This is a response to what happened in Massachusetts, where a judge overturned that state’s law banning same-sex marriage.[2]

The ballot title for the initiative says, “In as much as a marriage is the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife, no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized.”

Support
Florida4Marriage is the sponsor of the initiative. The group says that it has widespread support with approximately 35.1% of registered Democrats, 49.2% of registered Republicans and 15.6% of registered independents in favor of the initiatve.[3]

Many also believe that the constitutional amendment is also being pushed in order to bring out more conservative voters for the presidential election.[4]

Although taking a “live and let live” stance on the amendment in the past, Gov. Crist has also announced his support of Amendment 2. During an August 4 question and answer session with reporters, Crist said of Amendment 2, “I support it.” There were claims this was a misprint, but according to Crist spokesman Sterling Ivey, “Yes, he’s very supportive of it.”

In 2006 Crist signed a petition supporting placing the measure on the ballot, but later chastised the Florida Republican party for contributing $300,000 to Florida4marriage.org, the political action committee supporting the measure.[5]

On September 9, 2008, Governor Crist announced that he will not actively back the amendment, as it is not a top priority for him. “I’ll support it, I’ll vote for it, move on,” the governor said of the Amendment 2 gay-marriage ban in an interview during a trip to tour flood-damaged areas in Central Florida. “It’s not top-tier for me, put it that way.” Derek Newton, campaign manager for Say No to 2, said Crist’s bare-minimum endorsement of the marriage ban is just the latest indicator that the “passion and the fire and the light around this issue has dimmed.”[6]

Opposition
Florida Red and Blue, which believes the amendment will strip existing domestic partnerships of their rights, is fighting the initiative.[7] The group has promised to wage an “all-out” campaign to fight the measure and will be arranging “truth squads” to spread their message.

“There are still those out there who would like to take away personal liberties,” said Stephen Gaskill, spokesperson for Florida Red and Blue. He said that his group is certain “Floridians don’t want government this deeply involved in their personal lives.”[8]

Others, like Rabbi Bruce Diamond believes that it is an invasion of privacy.[9]

Many are accusing the petition as acting as bait for the Presidential election in order to draw out conservative voters, saying that there is already enough legislation in place currently.[10]

The ACLU has come out against the amendment, urging Florida voters to reject it. ACLU officials say they are worried the ballot’s language will make it difficult for unmarried couples who share benefits, including many seniors, to continue that. [11]

Financing the opposition
Amendment 2 is one of three ballot measures that will appear on November ballots around the country to ban same-sex marriage. Of these, the highest profile battle surrounds California Proposition 8. According to Stephen Gaskill, a spokesperson for Florida Red and Blue, the focus on the California measure has complicated fundraising efforts for those fighting Florida Amendment 2.

Gaskill said, “Certainly if the California effort was not underway, it would be easier for Florida to raise money — that’s just a reality.”[12]

Status
The initiative was able to collect enough signatures in order to qualify for the 2008 general election.[13] This was done by volunteer circulators gathering 92,000 signatures, roughly 7,000 a day, in order to ensure the qualification of the measure.[14]


7 posted on 09/21/2008 9:48:22 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache (No Obama, No Way, No How)
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To: tsowellfan

Amen. We finally got Obama on the ropes, and now he seems to be countering. We can’t let him weasel his way out!


8 posted on 09/21/2008 9:56:08 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: DRey

Real Clear Politics has FL at +2.3 Mac Advantage.

Two media polls released today have the FL close. These polls were taken mid week of last week.

Sun Sentinal has FL at Mac 46 / Obama 45

Miami Herald has FL at Mac 47 / Obama 45

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html


9 posted on 09/21/2008 10:01:13 AM PDT by yongin (Don't get mad at MSM smears. Do GOTV work for Palin)
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To: DRey

I really hope Obama spends a fortune in Florida. He has no chance of winning there. I do not care how many polls he produces from Newspapers that back him. THe only way for a Democrat to win Florida is to get a huge Jewish vote out of South Florida and do well enough with the rural Bubba vote. Obama will get neither. He may carry the Jewish vote but it will not be by the landslide that he needs. He will get clobbered everywhere else in the state, will be completely shut out in the Panhandle. He is going to lose Florida by art least 10 points. But let’s not let him know that. Keep spending that money. (He ought to be worrying about New York. I noticed McCain just got on the Independence line in New York, which means he could be on 4 out of the 6 major lines...Republican, Conservative, Right to Life and Independence). If Obama diverts his resources away from New York in a futile quest to take Florida, he may have an early and unpleasant surprise on election night.


10 posted on 09/21/2008 10:02:53 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
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To: Brices Crossroads
I'm starting to see Obama television ads in Tennessee as well. The more the better I say.

You can win it Barry!

Just keep throwing money at it.

11 posted on 09/21/2008 10:08:42 AM PDT by LimaLimaMikeFoxtrot ("If you don't have my army supplied, and keep it supplied, we'll eat your mules up, sir"-Gen.Sherman)
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To: DRey

BS


12 posted on 09/21/2008 10:09:55 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: DRey

Pollsters are starting to “trend” more democrats since they “feel” that is the direction things are heading with the last couple of days. This is why RCP can move a McCain +6 state to toss up. It’s their “secret recipe” and it wont work. Florida is, was and will be a McCain win by +5, or +2.5 if the RATS are allowed to f**k with it in court.


13 posted on 09/21/2008 10:16:13 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (I Love The Smell Of Schmidt Storm in the Morning...and Afternoon....and at Night!!!!!)
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To: LimaLimaMikeFoxtrot

I am waiting for the ads in Utah and Mississippi too. Spend , spend, spend.

In the primary in Pennsylvania, he outspent Hillary by a mile and still got clobbered, even though the polls said it was gonna be a real horse race.


14 posted on 09/21/2008 10:16:24 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
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To: Brices Crossroads

I like the multiple parties in NY, but McCain shouldn’t be spending money there until he has locked up the Midwest.


15 posted on 09/21/2008 10:17:20 AM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (White Trash for Sarah!)
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To: DRey

Keep trying, clownie. There’s always a few folks on FR who believe your posts (under whatever name) are sincere.


16 posted on 09/21/2008 10:19:19 AM PDT by Cinnamon Girl (Welcome home, former McCain haters and rageaholics!)
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

“Florida is, was and will be a McCain win by +5, or +2.5 if the RATS are allowed to f**k with it in court.”

It won’t be that close. Florida has only voted for a Democrat three times in the last 50 years, all of them southern Democrats. This guy is gonna get clobbered a la McGovern, Dukakis and Mondale.


17 posted on 09/21/2008 10:19:21 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
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To: Cinnamon Girl

“Keep trying, clownie.”

Huh?


18 posted on 09/21/2008 10:20:50 AM PDT by DRey
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To: DRey

whenever you see an online ad for Obama, click it, stay on the page for 30 seconds before exiting. It will cost his campaign a few cents.


19 posted on 09/21/2008 10:53:42 AM PDT by fso301
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To: DRey

Florida is 5 points easy for Mccain.


20 posted on 09/21/2008 10:55:25 AM PDT by scooby321 (Cai)
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To: Brices Crossroads

“It’s hard to believe....” I’ve used that expression many times during this election season. But it is true in this case again: How can FL even be close when MI, PA, and other states that have gone Democrat since 1992 also be close? You would think if McCain as a good shot at Clinton/Gore/Kerry states that Obama would have no chance in FL. If OH has been trending to McCain I would be stunned if Obama would have a shot at FL. Not that I think the Repubs will run away with it. But I think McCain/Pain should do at least as well as Bush did in ‘04.


21 posted on 09/21/2008 10:55:40 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: DRey
Primary bounce has run it's course, surely you expected it.
22 posted on 09/21/2008 11:20:31 AM PDT by org.whodat (Republicans should support the SAM Walton business model, and then drill???)
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To: DRey

The only “toss-up” that comes to mind here is that “UpChuck” Joe Biden is a total non-factor in helping Obama at all in FL, and elsewhere...


23 posted on 09/21/2008 11:55:03 AM PDT by mikrofon (McCain-Palin '08)
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