Skip to comments.Electoral Map shows Florida moved to toss-up (again)
Posted on 09/21/2008 9:33:56 AM PDT by DRey
What changed recently, other than McCain doing very well in Florida, for RealClear to move Florida back to toss-up? Obama now ahead in electoral map.
doesn’t make much sense to me. The polls they show all favor McCain. One is even. St Pete showed it even up today. Maybe with the movement nationally this week to The One, it moved it a tick or two back.
We got our work cut out for us this week
“The polls they show all favor McCain.”
Well, RealClear makes everything less than a 5 point spread a toss-up. What I don’t understand is what changed overnight? I don’t see any new polls to throw it less than 5 since the 18th. What changed?
I don't think the Obamessiah's dreaming. He's got a very tough battle ahead, but he could still win FL. Stand by over the next several days for some organization to trot out a poll showing FL as a dead heat.
Took even less time than I anticipated.
McCain/Palin 189 - 163 Solid/26 Leaning
Toss Up 147 Let me know when Oprah is getting ready to sing. Im trying not to look till it's over.
Total garbage...don’t believe it.
Florida is locked for McCain and the reason is Amendment 2 which will be on the Florida ballot. What is Amendment 2?
Define marraige between a man and a woman - yes or no.
The Florida Marriage Amendment, also known as Proposition 2 and The Marriage Protection Amendment, is a proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage in Florida. The proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution will appear on the November 4, 2008 ballot in Florida. In order to pass, the amendment will require a 60% majority of those voting in the election. As of September 8th, 2008, a slight majority of Floridians support the ballot measure (55%), but not 60%; 41% oppose the measure.
The amendment as written includes a clause prohibiting judges from overturning the law. This is a response to what happened in Massachusetts, where a judge overturned that states law banning same-sex marriage.
The ballot title for the initiative says, In as much as a marriage is the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife, no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized.
Florida4Marriage is the sponsor of the initiative. The group says that it has widespread support with approximately 35.1% of registered Democrats, 49.2% of registered Republicans and 15.6% of registered independents in favor of the initiatve.
Many also believe that the constitutional amendment is also being pushed in order to bring out more conservative voters for the presidential election.
Although taking a live and let live stance on the amendment in the past, Gov. Crist has also announced his support of Amendment 2. During an August 4 question and answer session with reporters, Crist said of Amendment 2, I support it. There were claims this was a misprint, but according to Crist spokesman Sterling Ivey, Yes, hes very supportive of it.
In 2006 Crist signed a petition supporting placing the measure on the ballot, but later chastised the Florida Republican party for contributing $300,000 to Florida4marriage.org, the political action committee supporting the measure.
On September 9, 2008, Governor Crist announced that he will not actively back the amendment, as it is not a top priority for him. Ill support it, Ill vote for it, move on, the governor said of the Amendment 2 gay-marriage ban in an interview during a trip to tour flood-damaged areas in Central Florida. Its not top-tier for me, put it that way. Derek Newton, campaign manager for Say No to 2, said Crists bare-minimum endorsement of the marriage ban is just the latest indicator that the passion and the fire and the light around this issue has dimmed.
Florida Red and Blue, which believes the amendment will strip existing domestic partnerships of their rights, is fighting the initiative. The group has promised to wage an all-out campaign to fight the measure and will be arranging truth squads to spread their message.
There are still those out there who would like to take away personal liberties, said Stephen Gaskill, spokesperson for Florida Red and Blue. He said that his group is certain Floridians dont want government this deeply involved in their personal lives.
Others, like Rabbi Bruce Diamond believes that it is an invasion of privacy.
Many are accusing the petition as acting as bait for the Presidential election in order to draw out conservative voters, saying that there is already enough legislation in place currently.
The ACLU has come out against the amendment, urging Florida voters to reject it. ACLU officials say they are worried the ballots language will make it difficult for unmarried couples who share benefits, including many seniors, to continue that. 
Financing the opposition
Amendment 2 is one of three ballot measures that will appear on November ballots around the country to ban same-sex marriage. Of these, the highest profile battle surrounds California Proposition 8. According to Stephen Gaskill, a spokesperson for Florida Red and Blue, the focus on the California measure has complicated fundraising efforts for those fighting Florida Amendment 2.
Gaskill said, Certainly if the California effort was not underway, it would be easier for Florida to raise money thats just a reality.
The initiative was able to collect enough signatures in order to qualify for the 2008 general election. This was done by volunteer circulators gathering 92,000 signatures, roughly 7,000 a day, in order to ensure the qualification of the measure.
Amen. We finally got Obama on the ropes, and now he seems to be countering. We can’t let him weasel his way out!
Real Clear Politics has FL at +2.3 Mac Advantage.
Two media polls released today have the FL close. These polls were taken mid week of last week.
Sun Sentinal has FL at Mac 46 / Obama 45
Miami Herald has FL at Mac 47 / Obama 45
I really hope Obama spends a fortune in Florida. He has no chance of winning there. I do not care how many polls he produces from Newspapers that back him. THe only way for a Democrat to win Florida is to get a huge Jewish vote out of South Florida and do well enough with the rural Bubba vote. Obama will get neither. He may carry the Jewish vote but it will not be by the landslide that he needs. He will get clobbered everywhere else in the state, will be completely shut out in the Panhandle. He is going to lose Florida by art least 10 points. But let’s not let him know that. Keep spending that money. (He ought to be worrying about New York. I noticed McCain just got on the Independence line in New York, which means he could be on 4 out of the 6 major lines...Republican, Conservative, Right to Life and Independence). If Obama diverts his resources away from New York in a futile quest to take Florida, he may have an early and unpleasant surprise on election night.
You can win it Barry!
Just keep throwing money at it.
Pollsters are starting to “trend” more democrats since they “feel” that is the direction things are heading with the last couple of days. This is why RCP can move a McCain +6 state to toss up. It’s their “secret recipe” and it wont work. Florida is, was and will be a McCain win by +5, or +2.5 if the RATS are allowed to f**k with it in court.
I am waiting for the ads in Utah and Mississippi too. Spend , spend, spend.
In the primary in Pennsylvania, he outspent Hillary by a mile and still got clobbered, even though the polls said it was gonna be a real horse race.
I like the multiple parties in NY, but McCain shouldn’t be spending money there until he has locked up the Midwest.
Keep trying, clownie. There’s always a few folks on FR who believe your posts (under whatever name) are sincere.
“Florida is, was and will be a McCain win by +5, or +2.5 if the RATS are allowed to f**k with it in court.”
It won’t be that close. Florida has only voted for a Democrat three times in the last 50 years, all of them southern Democrats. This guy is gonna get clobbered a la McGovern, Dukakis and Mondale.
“Keep trying, clownie.”
whenever you see an online ad for Obama, click it, stay on the page for 30 seconds before exiting. It will cost his campaign a few cents.
Florida is 5 points easy for Mccain.