Posted on 10/04/2008 12:31:55 PM PDT by skully
Many of these polls are upping the number of Dems in their sample. But some appear to also be under representing GOP turnout when “weighting” the polls to likely voters. The net effect of this gives Obama a bigger overall spread. I noticed this when looking at the CBS poll internals for the 9/27-9/30 poll. They had 1258 respondents of which 1113 were registered voters (with samples sizes of 32.5% R and 35.6% D) They score the registered voters as: R=362 D=396 I=355
When they “weight” the poll to Likely voters they break it down:
R=312 (13.8% drop off from unweighted results) D=380 (4% drop off from unweighted results) I=328 (7.6% drop off from unweighted results)
***Notice the R drop off is over 3 times greater then the D drop off, and nearly 2 times greater then I drop off***
They then apply some “secret” math to arrive at the likely voters of this group based on this disclaimer:
*Every Registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters.
They then arrive at 769 LV that they base the results on.
They divide the results of their weighting by the results of their “secret” math to come up with the poll's result
R= 312/769= 40.57% The poll shows McCain at 41% (so they rounded up for him, and we thought they were biased)
D=380/769= 49.41% The poll shows Obama at 49%(appears they have a McCain bias when rounding off..Sarc)
Oddly this result appears to ignore the Independents listed. So I'm assuming they are considering the Indy's to be split evenly after weighting and secret math. Which is kinda strange in itself, because in the poll internals they have the Indy's going for Obama 43-38 among registered voters, but apparently have them split evenly among likely voters.
So this poll not only bumps up the sample of Dems, it weights the poll with the assumption that Registered GOP are 3 times less likely to show up then Dems, and 2 times less likely to vote then the Indy's. The numbers released in this poll are clearly designed to discourage the GOP base. Here's the link to this poll's internals:
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/sepd-elec08.pdf
Feel free to take a look and critique or correct my analysis. I admit my head was kinda spinning after crunching these numbers. Seems like CBS went through some extra steps to spread their bias among different aspects. I estimate that Obama is about 3 points too high and McCain is 3 pts too low in this; making the results to be more likely Obama 46 McCain 44. CBS seems to be up to their "fake" but "accurate" antics again.
They are trying to demoralize the GOP.
Don't fall for it.
Get out and VOTE and get others on board.
We can NOT afford the Obomination.
I agree the polls may not be fully accurate, but there should not be delusions either that McCain is out kicking butt.
He’s not. He is appearing weak, and he needs to kick it in gear within the next 29 days.
The Cult of Obama is strong, and his sycophants and worshipers are everywhere.
Media bias, skewed polls, and outright voter fraud are to be expected...and we have to over come that. How nice it would be to also see the top of the ticket have the passion and desire to do the same.
You can spread that message without implying that McCain isn't living up to your standards.
I feel like I am in the twilight zone.
I'm not sure what your point is though I admit it's an interesting anecdote. As far as “not telling the truth” goes I suspect, based on wrong polls and exit polls in previous years that many people do lie to pollsters.
Where's home for you Fatima? I am surprised anybody still knocks on doors.
Are ALL the polls weighted against the Reps? A few weeks ago, McC was on top - are you saying all the polls conspired to change all at once, and all at the same rate?
That's interesting....
I thought that they just asked each respondent “are you likely to vote this election?”, and that made them a likely voter, just like the on-line Zogby poll.
But perhaps that's too logical....:^)
If he were fighting Hussein alone, it would be one thing. But he isn’t. He is also getting beaten down my moron.org, ACORN, nearly every broadcast outlet...local affiliates included...printed media (though their influence is mostly among the broadcasters), entertainment shows, academia, unions, etc.
He seems to be as deaf to this reality as he was to the immigration outcry. Until it went down in flames, and then I don’t even think he got it.
The Obama Cult is dangerous, and McCain needs to wake up to that fact.
We are in lower Bucks County PA.I just added it as a thought.Door to door does happen here once in awhile.
One thing we all agree about is the following, MCCAINS CAMPAIGNING SUCKS,STOP BEING A GENTLEMAN AND FIGHT THESE RATS LIKE YOUR LIFE AND THE NATIONS DEPEND ON IT BECAUSE IT DOES
SORRY FOR THE RANT and yes I was yelling
I'm not saying “conspired”. But many polls, including Rasmussen have upped their sample of Dems since after the conventions. Many started reporting RV instead of LV results. I haven't analyzed other polls beside the CBS one I included. But that poll does have a GOP drop off rate 3 times greater then the Dems’; when weighting for LV’s.
I even said I think the results are closer to 46-44 in favor of Emperor 0. I don't think McCain is winning. I just don't think he's down by as much as we're being led to believe.
I don't think ALL polls are weighted against the GOP. I think some like Rasmussen are adjusting their samples to reflect the number of new Dem voters this year, but how many of those were Operation Chaos enrollees?? But I think some are intentionally weighting their polls to show 0 farther ahead then he really is; in the hopes of depressing GOP turnout. I believe the CBS poll I included is one of those.
You mentioned that the methodlogy assumes that Repubs are 3 times less likely to show up?? Insane.
Almost every Pres election we hear how Repubs wil “crawl across glass” to vote for the Repub candidate. This year it is true. People on my street (S FL) has 2 1/2 times the number of McCain signs versus Bush 2000 or 2004. No one brought them around - these people went and got them. I picked up my sign last night and the guy behind me wanted a McCain-PALIN sign. It had to be with Palin on it.
The MSM is milking this for the money. They make hundreds of millions during elections. Lib newspapers are dying and network TV is suffering. they need this money so they will try to prop Obama up. Obama is spending his offshore donations as fast as the Sa*dis can send it.
Gore, Dukakis, Kerry were all up in Ocotber. Ford only barely lost to Carter. Clinton won because he was a moderate and Perot sabatoaged the Repubs. At least 35% of the Dem base does not like Obama.
Important Point:
These polls I think are ignoring Hillary voters who hate Obama and most will be voting McCain. Do not believe these polls. I was on Huffington Post during the primaries and the Obama people were horrible towards Hillary and Hillary voters. They were thugs.
Ignore the polls, the MSM. Contribute and volunteer for McCain-PALIN 2008.
Freedom is not free. we have a lot of work to do in the next 30 days. No whining. Sarah is in the field now and she is about to make Obama and Biden’s life miserable. Since nomination she had to prep for the deabte and made a few appearances. Now she is in the fight and people lover her. She sacres the hell out of the libs and MSM.
“We can NOT afford the Obomination.”......
We certainly cannot afford his juducial picks!....God help us!
VOTE.....VOTE.....VOTE.....VOTE.....VOTE......VOTE
“Yes, they are weighted polls AGAINST the GOP.
They are trying to demoralize the GOP.”
__________________________
Sounds like the hedge fund managers have found new careers....as pollsters shorting the GOP, and then drrrrrrriving it down! (said with the emphasis of Kramer from Seinfeld)
These false polls also increase the strength with which the left will claim the election was “stolen”, and undercut the legitimacy of the Republican winners.
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