Rasmussen Poll 10/2908: Obama 50%, McCain 47%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | October 29, 2008 | Rasmussen Reports

[avacado]

2004 Election
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/

2000 Election
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/epolls/US/P000.html

[Thane_Banquo]

Subtract 3 or 4 pts for Rasmussen overweighting DEMS and Zero is in the mid 40s.

[jwalsh07]

Here's the deal my friend. There are only so many black votes in America. They will turn out in record numbers but if our side turns out they won't matter just like in 2004. The conventional wisdom then was that a 55% turnout would make Kerry the winner. The silent majority disagreed with President Kerry.

The youth vote is perpetually the democrats other weapon of choice and perpetually they underperform, I suspect that will be the same this year.

The headwinds are definitely against republicans but that can be overcome with Baracks ties to a host of left wing nuts and the tax issue. Biden keeps giving gifts on taxes but the biggest gift is Obamas hanging with the marxists and his unquenchable thirst for money.

McCain should go after Khalidi, 401K's and Othe Obama campaigns corrupt fund raising hard. Those three issues will have to be covered widely now methinks.

Say a prayer, lock and load and up the hill we go. :-}

[Hones]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/

This site actually has alot of good info for 04. You can look by state/county etc....

[ER_in_OC,CA]

The Party ID of this polling sample appears plainly mentioned on the link supplied.

From the link:
“For polling data released during the week of October 26 to November 1, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.”

[avacado]

If Rasmussen didn't adjust his weighting to 3.5% plus Dems, then this means that yesterday's one day polling has McCain with the lead to make this current 3 day average jump like this.

Obama is bleeding voters...

[Red in Blue PA]

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point.
Excellent!

[B Knotts]

Something is going on out there. Maybe most of this is the pollsters fixing their weighting to something more realistic. But there is also, I think, a realization that we are about to elect an inexperienced, anti-American commie to the highest office in the nation.

I think some people are reevaluating their support of this empty suit. There is a higher comfort level with McCain.

[B Knotts]

Likely voter just means that they are likely to actually vote, not who they’re going to vote for.

[Buck W.]

We have time. That election is still 900 years away.

[Hones]

People much smarter than me are saying the numbers don't work at a Dem +7 weighting. The internals look very similar to what they have been for the past month. I not trying to be a downer, either way its a close race. However, this Rass poll might not show that much movement if he just shifted his #of D's and R's.

[elc]

Awesome, that is what I was look for.

[GoSarah]

Complete BS. I have access to the Rasmussen internals. Dems are shifting support to McCain, undecideds breaking to McCain.

[Hones]

I think Rass is doing a CYA. I guess we will see. There is no doubt that momentum is on Mac’s side anyways.

[tirednvirginia]

What is Rasmussens’ margin of error? I couldn’t find it on his site.

[wrhssaxensemble]

I know this is Rasmussen, and it has probably already been posted elsewhere already anyways but has anyone seen the most recent Zogby state reports?

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews2.dbm?ID=1603

McCain winning IN by 10 points

M losing NM by only .6 (but theyr 8.3% undecided confuses me)— funny how the media has already written that state off as a “clear Obama win”

M losing VA by 3.6

M winning OH by 2.8

M losing Colorado by .3

M losing Flordai by 3.6 (I think this is an error though since other polls are showing him winning FL)

M winning MO by .3

M losing NC by 3.1

M losing NH by .3

M winning NV by 7.3 (another one almost written off by media)

The overall margain of error ranges from 4.6 (IN) to 2.8 (FL)

so overall, McCain is either winning in all the swing states or well within the margain of error

I am sick of the medias lies

[WalterSkinner]

..translation--McCain is ahead...

[rhinohunter]

This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month

And that's despite the fact that Ras bumped the rat oversampling by a point over the weekend!

Good news indeed!

[Kevmo]

bmflr

[CaptainK]

The closer we get, a cold slash of reality is hitting the electorate.