'The Fourth Turning': Why the current crisis was unavoidable. (Natural Human Cycles)

Seeking Alpha ^ | 06/01/09 | Brett Owens

[Crimson Elephant]

Take a minute to think about your view of human history, and our continued progression as a species.

Do you believe human history is linear, always getting better, onward and upwards to a better existence?

Is it chaotic, stuff happens, people react, then more stuff happens, but there's no pattern to it?

Or, is human history cyclical...with those who neglect history destined to repeat it?

Most of the Western world subscribes to the linear school of thought. Things are always moving in a general direction - sometimes good, sometimes bad, but always moving. And I'd assume that most people believe the general trend of progress is up.

Your individual opinion may depend on your generation. Old timers are often pining for the "good old days" when morals and values "meant" something in America, you could go to the movies for a nickel, etc.

On the other hand, today's youth wants nothing to do with their parents' or grandparents' generational values and culture. I'm 27 years old and the thought of growing up in a 1950s Leave It To Beaver household isn't too alluring for me.

For the longest time, I held a predominantly linear view of history's progression. This very well may be based on my own personal experiences. I run a software startup by day, and blog and trade online as a hobby - none of which would have been possible 10+ years ago. What the heck would I have done then?

[Crimson Elephant]

Interesting concept. I think a lot of us have "felt" this but maybe not formulated it into a cohesive construct.

[Perdogg]

This guy has been coast2coast-am a couple of times.

[null and void]

BFL

[Osnome]

There have always been patterns in human history that repeat themselves - - partly because the humans of today are the same humans of 2000 years ago.
Similar characters in similar predicaments arrive at the same conclusions, make the same decisions & actions.

If Mankind did not shape his own destiny, then there is no such thing as ‘Free Will’.
The ‘distant future’ is formless- we shape it by our actions in the past and present.
Now if you want to speculate that there is a greater outline to future history and we only write in the details, you go right ahead.

[beaversmom]

I thought that was an older guy—this guy says he’s 27.

[beaversmom]

Never mind—I see he’s talking about the book.

[x]

So the theory goes that the farther you get away from a Crisis, the more likely you are to repeat it because the younger generations don't actually believe it can happen again. They think the ills of the past have been fixed, and often very limited knowledge of the last Crisis in the first place, so in fact, they have the perfect personality for causing the next crisis.

Remind you of today's economists spouting off about why we can divert depressions this day in age?

Makes sense. That certainly fits what we've seen.

It's a lot clearer in economic matters -- one long boom makes people forget that booms are followed by busts. And it may be that the longer and bigger the boom, the deeper the bust that follows.

In terms of politics and international relations, people do get overconfident and fall into the same ruts, but it's hard to imagine things getting as bad as they were in the 1930s and 1940s, or even the 1860s.