Posted on 07/25/2011 3:51:55 PM PDT by decimon
Scientists at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists, who are members of the Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) at Rensselaer, used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion. The finding has implications for the study and influence of societal interactions ranging from the spread of innovations to the movement of political ideals.
“When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority,” said SCNARC Director Boleslaw Szymanski, the Claire and Roland Schmitt Distinguished Professor at Rensselaer. “Once that number grows above 10 percent, the idea spreads like flame.”
As an example, the ongoing events in Tunisia and Egypt appear to exhibit a similar process, according to Szymanski. “In those countries, dictators who were in power for decades were suddenly overthrown in just a few weeks.”
The findings were published in the July 22, 2011, early online edition of the journal Physical Review E in an article titled “Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities.”
An important aspect of the finding is that the percent of committed opinion holders required to shift majority opinion does not change significantly regardless of the type of network in which the opinion holders are working. In other words, the percentage of committed opinion holders required to influence a society remains at approximately 10 percent, regardless of how or where that opinion starts and spreads in the society.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.rpi.edu ...
Explains how Islam takes over a country.
Explains how a group of radicals overthrew the British Empire and created the USA.
SCNARC?
I believe that’s pronounced, “Snark!”
Yes, but it likely doesn’t always work or there would never ever be a stable culture for long periods of time. There has to be something else at work. The new idea has to have something seductive or provocative. Or the group has to be in some way unhappy with the status quo or easily manipulated, etc. I don’t buy that this is simply all there is to it.
This would never be applied to consensus science like say Global warming.
Most revolutions are carried through by a small portion of the population; The American Revoution had about 150,000 to 200,000 out of 4,500,000 million; The French Revolution about 250,000 revolutionaries out of a population estimated at 35,000,000; and in The Russian Revolution Lenin had about 250,000 supporters out of a total population of 100,000,000.
Think about it. Most people don’t care. About any thing. If there is a group of folks who are truly committed and willing to do the heavy lifting, they can drive the majority in their direction.
Probably not 100% true, but Clinton never had a majority, nor did Hitler.
You are correct. They are still far from Harry Seldon territory. :p
Sounds like “The Hundredth Monkey” phenomenon.
Ten percent. Where have we heard THAT number b4? Hmmm?
It’s how Obama got elected.
“When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority”
^^^^^^^^^^^
It doesn’t take that many. The greatest revolution of all time was started by one Person and 12 followers, and it’s still going.
Take a look at the frightening “progress” of homosexuality in the West. They number what? — 1.5%? — and already they are having courts grant them legal status to sue anyone who dares question them. They are a tiny fraction of the population yet they are winning most every battle because they are tireless, determined and cry loudly at everything they don’t like.
If Christians could be even half as vocal in defense of morality...
I think in our current culture you may be correct, but in earlier cultures I think people were much more wedded to their beliefs.
Yes, but the homosexual agenda wasn’t really just pushed by that 1.5%. It was pushed by hollywood, so a larger minority with a huge megaphone.
“If there is a group of folks who are truly committed and willing to do the heavy lifting, they can drive the majority in their direction.”
That might explain why Conservatives have gotten as far as they have.
If you have a country where at least 10% deeply beleives in Jesus and the elite engineer a ten percent population increase of a foreign belief like Islam, do they all suddenly convert to the new ten percent?
Does this make any sense?
Social engineers in the US have violated the constitutional rights of Christians in an attempt to hide the sound and sight of Christians here. As they ban the sight and sound of Christians, they replace it with the sound of atheists. A man from the moon who came to the US would think we are an atheist nation from the sight and sound of the public square. But it does not work to convert us to atheism.
Excuse me. More than 10% of the population in this country have an shakeable belief that Democrats are the worse of the worse when it comes to politics and yet they get elected. Somebody needs to retool the model. Acting too much like some climate models that were made to fit an outcome.
Several situations appear to be left out of the calculation. Suppose for instance that two groups of 11% of the population hold diametrically opposite yet unshakable beliefs??
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.